General S-REITs Discussion Thread

revhappy

revhappy

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I am just curious, how to find the current discount/premium to NAV of REITs? Also the trend of this discount/premium.
 
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TehSi99

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Chinese tourists coming out but Ascott price not moving.
But the rest of Reits are like picking up speed in pending recession.
 
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zeroX26

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TehSi99 said:
Chinese tourists coming out but Ascott price not moving.
But the rest of Reits are like picking up speed in pending recession.
Click to expand...
How you expect Ascott price to move if there's no tangible bookings being made for their rooms.
 
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TehSi99

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Seems the blue chips Reits are moving up,

Interest rate hike and recession risks all price in?
 
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limster

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TehSi99 said:
Seems the blue chips Reits are moving up,

Interest rate hike and recession risks all price in?
Click to expand...

Did the market correctly price in interest rate hike and recession risk in the past?
Whatever the answer was the last time, I suspect the answer will be the same today. Markets never learn :s13:
 
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Oppa380

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Any idea why Keppel reit drop so much?
It was originally ard $1.2+
Now $0.90+
 
revhappy

revhappy

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TehSi99 said:
Seems the blue chips Reits are moving up,

Interest rate hike and recession risks all price in?
Click to expand...
Initially I used to find it silly when SG bloggers used to make picking REITs and stocks so easy. Like, China reopening -> buy hospitality etc. Coming from global markets perspective, I used to always think markets are way more efficient and everything is priced in and institutions would have already entered before retail investors.

But now, I think SG market is different. There are no futures and options, so it is not easy to "price in" everything. Also the institutional interest in SG market is also probably much lower than more efficient global markets.

So, I think in SG markets, it is easier to just do 1st order analysis like China reopening -> Buy hospitality.

In the US, you need to do 2nd order and 3rd order analysis. Like "Okay wait, How is the positioning?" or "How much of that positioning is expecting this factor v/s some other factor?" In the end most people there get it wrong. But here SG bloggers mostly get it right, with just 1st order analysis.

Best example is how all the SG bloggers and Youtubers, attempted their 1st order analysis and ventured into US & China tech and got whacked last year.
 
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limster

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revhappy said:
So, I think in SG markets, it is easier to just do 1st order analysis like China reopening -> Buy hospitality.
Click to expand...
Quite an interesting analysis and seems to be borne out by the fact that those local bloggers that buy mainly Singapore stocks (like ASSI) are still ok, despite a super high concentration in Singapore stocks whereas a lot of others who ventured in the US stocks/crypto got burnt badly.

Anyway, hope you are correct that 1st order analysis works in Singapore, I just bought Comfort Delgro and Singtel this week! 😅 At the end of the year can compare performance vs MSCI World! :) 📈 📉
 
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starbugs

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This talk about second order and third analysis is not entirely wrong, but it's also that insider news is more rampant in the US and stock analysts track what companies do more more closely. Often there you hear of things like layoffs even before the company announces it. By the time the average investor hears it, the big funds have already started to act on it. Regardless, for amateur traders, doing second or third level analysis makes almost no difference. They just rise and fall with the tide.
 
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