General S-REITs Discussion Thread

[addict951]

Anybuttie dived into the result & narration of Frasers L&C liao? I had just briefly glanced at the numbers nia. Rental revenue up but DPU down - is it cos tio hurt by high interest expense ar? Thx

 

[stanlawj]

https://www.nationalmortgagenews.co...ange-housing-market-regulation-in-second-term

In the medium term, the mortgage industry and financials generally should see some substantial benefits from the end of Democratic misrule in Washington. In the meantime, however, market concerns about inflation and the direction of LT interest rates could play havoc on lenders and traders. Until the Trump Administration makes clear that it is focused on reducing the federal deficit, markets are likely to remain volatile.

Yet if President Trump and his loyal boy wonder, Elon Musk, make progress cutting the federal deficit, then the likelihood is for interest rates to fall even as the dollar soars. The global bid for dollars and, more important, risk free Treasury collateral is so strong that a sudden reduction in new debt issuance by the Treasury will cause interest rates to fall sharply – certainly good news for mortgage lenders.

 

[ask_yip]

Continue to lao sai

time to pick or falling knife?

 

[TerryPower]

Continue to lao sai

time to pick or falling knife?

i'm a newbie.

for me, i give up on FCT* already. I'll just wait for dividends and sell them once my paid price > (sell price + total dividends)

* I only bought 1 REIT, should have used that money to buy more DBS at $37.8x

 

[NeedHeIp]

just dca and buy cfa reits etf and slowly kio dividends la

 

[stanlawj]

i'm a newbie.

for me, i give up on FCT* already. I'll just wait for dividends and sell them once my paid price > (sell price + total dividends)

* I only bought 1 REIT, should have used that money to buy more DBS at $37.8x

It's your system or process that makes you money. Not the stock.
If you don't have any process, then you're always regretting.

 

[stanlawj]

SREITS investors are having nightmare flashbacks of Oct 2023 and Oct 2022 crash.
Never thought I'll see this day again. It's a gift for latecomers.

 

[Iyarash11]

jialat reits become atm

 

[DriftKing]

Ouch REIT. Thought I slowly avg down and it went further down.

 

[qrcode]

Roller Coaster

 

[endlssorrow]

shiok.. cash is the power now to keep nib nib nib

 

[Tiny Shrimp]

So how? Average down some more or what?

 

[stanlawj]

jialat reits become atm

I'm a believer in Trump and Elon Musk. Hence, when they say they will balance the Federal budget (i.e. cut the deficit), they will do it. UST yields will fall as supply of UST bonds reduced.

Market does not believe in Trump/Elon can pull this off and is pricing in another bond market crash.

 

[Iyarash11]

got care no care I dump my ES3 first, should be highest since covid. Kena too many times from STI for wishful thinking. Reits will just have to wait for further rate cut.

 

[Jirachi]

Imo 10y yield will rise further and then drop to 3%

I think the UST 10y yield already peaked at 4.5%.
Now, all that is left is for Fed to cut rates at the short end down to 3%, thus normalising the entire yield curve. If the Federal govt is cutting spending, then Powell has the freedom to cut as much as he needs without worrying about US inflation spiking up again.

I believe what we are seeing now is the yield curve steepening as well aka normalisation. It is just that the lower end yield are too high which causes the higher end yields to go higher.

So long as the lower end starts to come down, the higher end will too. Twitter (including those financial and economist clowns) are just too focused on the 10Y yields now (I know the importance of it).

I agree with both of you. @stanlawj but US lowering spending is quite a tough thing. 1 Jan 2025 debt ceiling deal is expiring too.

 

[d5dude]

I believe what we are seeing now is the yield curve steepening as well aka normalisation. It is just that the lower end yield are too high which causes the higher end yields to go higher.

So long as the lower end starts to come down, the higher end will too. Twitter (including those financial and economist clowns) are just too focused on the 10Y yields now (I know the importance of it).

I agree with both of you. @stanlawj but US lowering spending is quite a tough thing. 1 Jan 2025 debt ceiling deal is expiring too.

Its not just the long end, fed fund futures was pricing in a terminal rate of 325-350 bps a month ago, its now up to 375-400, theres been a huge repricing of fed cuts over the last month or so. Some people here (including myself) thought rate cuts had already been priced into sreits a few months, judging from way sreits are dumping on just a 50bps FFR repricing, I'd say we were right about this.

 

[Jirachi]

Some people here (including myself) thought rate cuts had already been priced into sreits a few months, judging from way sreits are dumping on just a 50bps FFR repricing, I'd say we were right about this.

I made the same judgement too. Right or wrong, I think only time can tell. I was wrong for the 1/2 months outlook for now.

 

[d5dude]

I made the same judgement too. Right or wrong, I think only time can tell. I was wrong for the 1/2 months outlook for now.

Yea TBH its very hard to know where monetary policy is going to be with a GOP sweep (house elections not over but it looks like they will take it)...

 

[stanlawj]

Its not just the long end, fed fund futures was pricing in a terminal rate of 325-350 bps a month ago, its now up to 375-400, theres been a huge repricing of fed cuts over the last month or so. Some people here (including myself) thought rate cuts had already been priced into sreits a few months, judging from way sreits are dumping on just a 50bps FFR repricing, I'd say we were right about this.

Certainly, SREITS rallied up too fast. The question is how much should they pull back this time?

 

[DevilPlate]

Certainly, SREITS rallied up too fast. The question is how much should they pull back this time?

Wipe out sep 18 gains

Our SSB might rise further back to 3.2-3.4% range