Hedging USD exposure

TiedInsurer

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My investments are all denominated in USD. After the recent fall in value of USD against the SGD, i think it would be prudent to have some hedge against USD decline going forward. Ideally, this would be a leveraged short on a USD/SGD pair so i don't have too much capital tied up? But not sure how much funding fees this would normally incur.

Do you guys hedge your USD exposure? If so, how?
 

reddevil0728

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My investments are all denominated in USD. After the recent fall in value of USD against the SGD, i think it would be prudent to have some hedge against USD decline going forward. Ideally, this would be a leveraged short on a USD/SGD pair so i don't have too much capital tied up? But not sure how much funding fees this would normally incur.

Do you guys hedge your USD exposure? If so, how?
@BBCWatcher will say you are investing in a stock not currency.

Not verbatim, but he might be best able to shed more light
 

BBCWatcher

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My investments are all denominated in USD.
What are the actual investments? Are they U.S. Treasuries, for example? Collectible Edo period Japanese artwork? Shopping malls in France (via French REITs)? What are they?

Once you figure that out you may understand whether your investments are actually U.S. dollars (or close equivalents), and whether you're holding "too many" U.S. dollars (or close equivalents). But are you actually holding many (any) U.S. dollars?

Next question: are you holding "too many" Singapore dollars?
@BBCWatcher will say you are investing in a stock not currency.
I don't know what TiedInsurer is investing in. TiedInsurer didn't say.
 

sohguanh

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My investments are all denominated in USD. After the recent fall in value of USD against the SGD, i think it would be prudent to have some hedge against USD decline going forward. Ideally, this would be a leveraged short on a USD/SGD pair so i don't have too much capital tied up? But not sure how much funding fees this would normally incur.

Do you guys hedge your USD exposure? If so, how?
For me in the first place I will not all into USD investment but since you are already there I let other readers share how and don't think is so straightforward becuz I keen to know too just in case I overlook and my USD investment become more than my SGD investment.
 

TiedInsurer

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What are the actual investments? Are they U.S. Treasuries, for example? Collectible Edo period Japanese artwork? Shopping malls in France (via French REITs)? What are they?

Once you figure that out you may understand whether your investments are actually U.S. dollars (or close equivalents), and whether you're holding "too many" U.S. dollars (or close equivalents). But are you actually holding many (any) U.S. dollars?

Next question: are you holding "too many" Singapore dollars?

I don't know what TiedInsurer is investing in. TiedInsurer didn't say.
20% BTC and Ethereum.
80% USDC (basically USD) farming various shitcoins to sell for more USDC.

I barely hold any SGD. Just enough for 6mths worth of pay.
 

CaptainWu

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I bought mostly into ETFs like VWRA, CSPX...etc all are USD also so was thinking to do hedging on FX but it might not be that easy, something like forward contract but never study further. I have Dimensional also even denominated in SGD but are not hedged also, think only Fixed Income Funds are with SGD hedging class. Would like to know if there is an easy option also.
 

BBCWatcher

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20% BTC and Ethereum.
These cryptocurrencies are neither U.S. dollars nor Singapore dollars.
80% USDC (basically USD) farming various shitcoins to sell for more USDC.
This cryptocurrency is designed to remain pegged to the U.S. dollar. Whether it actually will stay pegged to the U.S. dollar or not is a very separate question.
I barely hold any SGD. Just enough for 6mths worth of pay.
Your monthly Singapore dollar pay is presumably exceeding regular basic household expenses, which would mean you have Singapore dollar emergency reserve funds in excess of 6 months. That seems perfectly fine, or better than fine. Unless you're expecting some "lumpy" Singapore dollar expense in the not too distant future, for example a wedding in Singapore 2 years from now.

I think you have two basic portfolio allocation problems: all of your savings (except for emergency reserve funds) are in cryptocurrencies, and then you have 80% of those savings pegged specifically to U.S. dollars. So you lack both asset class and currency diversity. Unless you're fairly close to retirement in the United States, or in a country that uses the U.S. dollar or has a currency pegged to the U.S. dollar, you are indeed over-allocated to U.S. dollar proxies. But you can solve both problems at once by investing in a low cost global stock index fund, as a notable example.
I bought mostly into ETFs like VWRA, CSPX...etc all are USD also so was thinking to do hedging on FX...
You're in a very different situation. VWRA and CSPX are stock funds, not currencies or currency proxies. You don't even need to consider hedging a currency position when you're not holding a currency position.

As a separate matter, I don't think it makes sense to overweight any particular country's stock market(s) with the possible exception of modest overweighting when you plan to retire in that country (when overweighting might make some sense, although only a little). Presumably you're not planning to retire in the United States, and don't have the ability to do so in immigration terms. Hence I don't think you ought to invest in CSPX.
 

d5dude

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20% BTC and Ethereum.
80% USDC (basically USD) farming various shitcoins to sell for more USDC.

I barely hold any SGD. Just enough for 6mths worth of pay.

I thought the whole idea of crypto was to hedge against dollar risk?
 

reddevil0728

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These cryptocurrencies are neither U.S. dollars nor Singapore dollars.

This cryptocurrency is designed to remain pegged to the U.S. dollar. Whether it actually will stay pegged to the U.S. dollar or not is a very separate question.

Your monthly Singapore dollar pay is presumably exceeding regular basic household expenses, which would mean you have Singapore dollar emergency reserve funds in excess of 6 months. That seems perfectly fine, or better than fine. Unless you're expecting some "lumpy" Singapore dollar expense in the not too distant future, for example a wedding in Singapore 2 years from now.

I think you have two basic portfolio allocation problems: all of your savings (except for emergency reserve funds) are in cryptocurrencies, and then you have 80% of those savings pegged specifically to U.S. dollars. So you lack both asset class and currency diversity. Unless you're fairly close to retirement in the United States, or in a country that uses the U.S. dollar or has a currency pegged to the U.S. dollar, you are indeed over-allocated to U.S. dollar proxies. But you can solve both problems at once by investing in a low cost global stock index fund, as a notable example.

You're in a very different situation. VWRA and CSPX are stock funds, not currencies or currency proxies. You don't even need to consider hedging a currency position when you're not holding a currency position.

As a separate matter, I don't think it makes sense to overweight any particular country's stock market(s) with the possible exception of modest overweighting when you plan to retire in that country (when overweighting might make some sense, although only a little). Presumably you're not planning to retire in the United States, and don't have the ability to do so in immigration terms. Hence I don't think you ought to invest in CSPX.
Actually I thought whilst S&P500 is made up of us listed companies, but the nature of their business is quite globally diversified. Hence, it’s not intrinsically a “US Index” right?
 

60Remajust

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so many replies but still no answer for TS

essentially, as long as the asset is denominated in USD, he is long US dollars too

doesn't matter if its stock fund, Singapore based SEA limited etc.

He can only sell and receive USD proceeds and will face the FX rate whatever it will be at that time

If part of the assets are on margin maybe it can create a natural hedge at the cost of margin interest?

i.e. if the currency crashes, his loan will be so much cheaper to repay
 

reddevil0728

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so many replies but still no answer for TS

essentially, as long as the asset is denominated in USD, he is long US dollars too

doesn't matter if its stock fund, Singapore based SEA limited etc.

He can only sell and receive USD proceeds and will face the FX rate whatever it will be at that time

If part of the assets are on margin maybe it can create a natural hedge at the cost of margin interest?

i.e. if the currency crashes, his loan will be so much cheaper to repay
the underlying stocks don't just do business in the US...
 

TiedInsurer

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These cryptocurrencies are neither U.S. dollars nor Singapore dollars.
I tend to disagree. The markets are affected by the liquidity available. In the case of ETH and BTC, market makers provide liquidity almost entirely in USD. What this means is that if tomorrow everybody in the world stopped buying or selling BTC, and hence BTC price remains the same in USD terms, i would still lose 2% if USD falls 2% against SGD, as i would have to sell the BTC for USD first, then sell the USD for SGD.

While my main exposure is still the inherent price volatility of BTC, i'm not immune to the forex volatility as a result of how liquidity is strctured.

But you can solve both problems at once by investing in a low cost global stock index fund, as a notable example.
Hmm the problem is that i don't want to change my portfolio risk exposure, other then the USD exposure portion. I'm not here to shill crypto, so i don't want to discuss why i should or should not change my portfolio allocation, but i do still want to know what other people are doing with regards to hedging forex risks.
 

reddevil0728

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I see, so for stocks like SEA limited, when you sell the shares

There is a special USD/SGD FX rate for the investors since the company earns mainly in SGD?
I’m saying their FX fluctuations is not independent of earnings n hence how share price fluctuates.

they are interconnected.
 

TiedInsurer

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If part of the assets are on margin maybe it can create a natural hedge at the cost of margin interest?

i.e. if the currency crashes, his loan will be so much cheaper to repay
Oh that's a good idea. Don't think there's any exchanges out there that currently supports this though. I'll shop around.
 

DevilPlate

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I tend to disagree. The markets are affected by the liquidity available. In the case of ETH and BTC, market makers provide liquidity almost entirely in USD. What this means is that if tomorrow everybody in the world stopped buying or selling BTC, and hence BTC price remains the same in USD terms, i would still lose 2% if USD falls 2% against SGD, as i would have to sell the BTC for USD first, then sell the USD for SGD.

While my main exposure is still the inherent price volatility of BTC, i'm not immune to the forex volatility as a result of how liquidity is strctured.


Hmm the problem is that i don't want to change my portfolio risk exposure, other then the USD exposure portion. I'm not here to shill crypto, so i don't want to discuss why i should or should not change my portfolio allocation, but i do still want to know what other people are doing with regards to hedging forex risks.
Actually crypto is kinda like Gold.

I never heard anyone buy Gold (which is priced in USD) and need to hedge fx risk whahahaha

If u own a shitload of US treasuries, then yes must hedge!
 

TiedInsurer

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I thought the whole idea of crypto was to hedge against dollar risk?
The original idea was to act as an alternative form of currency immune to government intervention and policies.
That idea is of course ridiculous (imo) and nobody except the most hardcore of bitcoiners believe that.
 

TiedInsurer

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Actually crypto is kinda like Gold.

I never heard anyone buy Gold (which is priced in USD) and need to hedge fx risk whahahaha

If u own a shitload of US treasuries, then yes must hedge!
That's because very few ppl hold a significant enough of their portfolio in gold, such that the few % points of forex fluctuation will actually hurt. But yes, fluctuations in USD/SGD rate will affect your gold investment, as the market makers will quote you a different price in SGD based on how the USD moves.

Technically, the USDC is a US treasury equivalent, as they are backed 1:1 by US treasuries and US dollar bank deposits.
 
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