Intel's process woes started 10 years ago?

wwenze

Greater Supremacy Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2002
Messages
86,463
Reaction score
30,152
I hear you. “The world has a billion problems, and nanometer nodes ain’t one!” But, hear me out. In the early, heady days of Moore’s Law, it made sense to characterize processes by gate length (Lg). We had about a gazillion semiconductor fabs around the world, and they needed some standardized way to, well, do anything at all, actually. But as the decades have marched past, describing semiconductor processes with length metrics based hypothetically on gate size has long since veered into the land of fiction.

Intel held the line from “10 micron” in 1972 through “0.35 micron” in 1995, an impressive 23-year run where the node name matched gate length. Then, in 1997 with the “0.25 micron/250 nm” node they started over-achieving with an actual Lg of 200 nm – 20% better than the name would imply. This “sandbagging” continued through the next 12 years, with one node (130nm) having Lg of only 70nm – almost a 2x buffer. Then, in 2011, Intel jumped over to the other side of the ledger, ushering in what we might call the “overstating decade” with the “22nm” node sporting an Lg of 26 nm. Since then, things have continued to slide further in that direction, with the current “10nm” node measuring in with an Lg of 18 nm – almost 2x on the other side of the “named” dimension.

So essentially, since 1997, the node name has not been a representation of any actual dimension on the chip, and it has erred in both directions by almost a factor of 2.

For the last few years, this has been a big marketing problem for Intel from a “perception” point of view. Most industry folks understand that Intel’s “10nm” process is roughly equivalent to TSMC and Samsung’s “7nm” processes. But non-industry publications regularly write that Intel has “fallen behind” because they are still back on 10nm when other fabs have “moved on to 7nm and are working on 5nm.” The truth is, these are marketing names only, and in no way do they represent anything we might expect in comparing competing technologies.

https://www.eejournal.com/article/no-more-nanometers/

The first 22nm was Ivy Bridge, which was not much of an improvement over Sandy Bridge.
 

watzup_ken

High Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 21, 2003
Messages
25,670
Reaction score
2,123
I guess as the transistor size shrinks, the difficulty to shrink it further goes up exponentially. Given the short time to market expectation, something has got to give. So it is not surprising that the standards will lax to squeeze something out. I feel the current Intel 10nm paints that picture very clearly, as compared to previous nodes. I have no idea how aggressive was Intel planning to shrink from their 14nm to 10nm, but given the bad press and angry investors on their tail, I am not surprised if Intel had to "rescue" their 10nm by relaxing their original plan.
 

AZE

High Supremacy Member
Joined
May 2, 2000
Messages
36,924
Reaction score
3,986
Is this even news?:s22:

For those that had been following... there were major issues with 22nm, and then followed up with major issues and big delays of 14nm.

Ironically the originally troubled but now matured and refined 14nm is now the most profitable and best performing node until 10nm ESF was released months ago.:s22:
 

peterchan75

Supremacy Member
Joined
Apr 26, 2003
Messages
6,752
Reaction score
533
It all boils down chip architecture design. INTC chips at 10nm has horrible yield and I suspect cannot perform at the frequency level of 14nm chip. AMD chips suit the TSMC 7nm process. Clearly, AMD chip is bottleneck at TSMC. INTC is able to increase supply and regain market share.
 

Givemetheredpill

Junior Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2020
Messages
57
Reaction score
0
It all boils down chip architecture design. INTC chips at 10nm has horrible yield and I suspect cannot perform at the frequency level of 14nm chip. AMD chips suit the TSMC 7nm process. Clearly, AMD chip is bottleneck at TSMC. INTC is able to increase supply and regain market share.

OG 10nm (i3-8121u) was a joke and Icelake 10nm is quite underwhelming. On the other hand, Tigerlake 10nm SuperFin voltage-frequency curve actually looks decent (comparable to 14+?), and we'll be seeing 10nm Enhanced SuperFin with Alderlake at the end of 2021. Also coming soon is Icelake-SP which will have a XCC 42-core die built on 10nm SF, and it will be interesting to see how much of it is a paper launch.

That said, Intel used to have a 2.5 year lead over the industry but today they are 2 years behind so it's quite hard to be excited for Intel...
 

peterchan75

Supremacy Member
Joined
Apr 26, 2003
Messages
6,752
Reaction score
533
OG 10nm (i3-8121u) was a joke and Icelake 10nm is quite underwhelming. On the other hand, Tigerlake 10nm SuperFin voltage-frequency curve actually looks decent (comparable to 14+?), and we'll be seeing 10nm Enhanced SuperFin with Alderlake at the end of 2021. Also coming soon is Icelake-SP which will have a XCC 42-core die built on 10nm SF, and it will be interesting to see how much of it is a paper launch.

That said, Intel used to have a 2.5 year lead over the industry but today they are 2 years behind so it's quite hard to be excited for Intel...

Volume is the game. If INTC can increase the 10nm volume then AMD will have hard time matching its capacity. TSMC will not build capacity if AMD is not on the hook. If the new Apple chip is that good then both AMD and INTC will have a rough time ahead. Then again, the AMD and INTC competition is not bringing PC price down. Still cost around $1000 for a decent MB+CPU+RAM+SSD.:s22:
 

watzup_ken

High Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 21, 2003
Messages
25,670
Reaction score
2,123
Volume is the game. If INTC can increase the 10nm volume then AMD will have hard time matching its capacity. TSMC will not build capacity if AMD is not on the hook. If the new Apple chip is that good then both AMD and INTC will have a rough time ahead. Then again, the AMD and INTC competition is not bringing PC price down. Still cost around $1000 for a decent MB+CPU+RAM+SSD.:s22:

I think most people focuses only on Intel and AMD when it comes to CPU. But the bigger challenger is really ARM, whether its in the form of Apple's M1 or from Qualcomm. I think just a few years back, I think most people will brush off the fact that ARM processors are actually competitive against the likes of Intel and AMD. But of late, there are lots of new ARM based processors that have replaced what was traditionally very expensive Intel hardware. Apple's M1 chip while still not as good, is surprisingly competitive in terms of performance. So to be honest, even if Intel can ramp up 10nm volume, which I suspect they are still struggling, it may not be enough to stop their market share decline.

As for the cost of computers, I think you are looking at it the wrong way. Consider how much Intel charges you for the top end 4 core processor just 5 to 6 years back, and look again now to see what you are getting. For the same amount, you probably get more than double the amount of cores, which again Intel traditionally charges you an arm and a leg for it. So for your comparison, you should be comparing a like for like specs.
 

Clearnfc

Banned
Joined
Apr 10, 2019
Messages
14,093
Reaction score
3,729
I think most people focuses only on Intel and AMD when it comes to CPU. But the bigger challenger is really ARM, whether its in the form of Apple's M1 or from Qualcomm. I think just a few years back, I think most people will brush off the fact that ARM processors are actually competitive against the likes of Intel and AMD. But of late, there are lots of new ARM based processors that have replaced what was traditionally very expensive Intel hardware. Apple's M1 chip while still not as good, is surprisingly competitive in terms of performance. So to be honest, even if Intel can ramp up 10nm volume, which I suspect they are still struggling, it may not be enough to stop their market share decline.

As for the cost of computers, I think you are looking at it the wrong way. Consider how much Intel charges you for the top end 4 core processor just 5 to 6 years back, and look again now to see what you are getting. For the same amount, you probably get more than double the amount of cores, which again Intel traditionally charges you an arm and a leg for it. So for your comparison, you should be comparing a like for like specs.

I mentioned this here a while ago but kena flamed instead.... nobody seems to think that Arm is a challenger....haha....
 

watzup_ken

High Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 21, 2003
Messages
25,670
Reaction score
2,123
OG 10nm (i3-8121u) was a joke and Icelake 10nm is quite underwhelming. On the other hand, Tigerlake 10nm SuperFin voltage-frequency curve actually looks decent (comparable to 14+?), and we'll be seeing 10nm Enhanced SuperFin with Alderlake at the end of 2021. Also coming soon is Icelake-SP which will have a XCC 42-core die built on 10nm SF, and it will be interesting to see how much of it is a paper launch.

That said, Intel used to have a 2.5 year lead over the industry but today they are 2 years behind so it's quite hard to be excited for Intel...

First gen 10nm bad in terms of performance and yield. As for the second gen used on Ice Lake, based on my usage of an Ice Lake U based laptop, I would say its decent. Base clockspeed is very low for sure, but in actual fact, the processor can actual sustain at a much higher clockspeed. As for 10nm++ aka what they call SuperFin, I think its further improved, but it seems that it just pulls more power. Similar to what they have done with 14nm where they kept "optimizing" it to run at a higher clockspeed at the expense of power.
 

watzup_ken

High Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 21, 2003
Messages
25,670
Reaction score
2,123
I mentioned this here a while ago but kena flamed instead.... nobody seems to think that Arm is a challenger....haha....

It did not seem like the case for the retail side of things until Apple came out with the M1, which I feel pretty much rocked the industry. Qualcomm couldn't pull it off earlier, so I guess people just overlooked ARM. In the enterprise space, from what I have read so far, quite a few big companies are already using their own custom ARM processors to replace Intel chips. So while Intel still reports healthy profit, their market share is gradually eroding. To what extend, I am not sure, but they don't have the monopoly anymore.
 

keenklee

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2000
Messages
19,409
Reaction score
6,780
I think most people focuses only on Intel and AMD when it comes to CPU. But the bigger challenger is really ARM, whether its in the form of Apple's M1 or from Qualcomm. I think just a few years back, I think most people will brush off the fact that ARM processors are actually competitive against the likes of Intel and AMD. But of late, there are lots of new ARM based processors that have replaced what was traditionally very expensive Intel hardware. Apple's M1 chip while still not as good, is surprisingly competitive in terms of performance. So to be honest, even if Intel can ramp up 10nm volume, which I suspect they are still struggling, it may not be enough to stop their market share decline.

As for the cost of computers, I think you are looking at it the wrong way. Consider how much Intel charges you for the top end 4 core processor just 5 to 6 years back, and look again now to see what you are getting. For the same amount, you probably get more than double the amount of cores, which again Intel traditionally charges you an arm and a leg for it. So for your comparison, you should be comparing a like for like specs.

IMHO.
I think Qualcomm has been aggressive with Microsoft to rollout Windows 10 machines with LTE/5G. These will represent the biggest market share.
 

watzup_ken

High Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 21, 2003
Messages
25,670
Reaction score
2,123
IMHO.
I think Qualcomm has been aggressive with Microsoft to rollout Windows 10 machines with LTE/5G. These will represent the biggest market share.

LTE and 5G chip sales won't make them as much money as if they are able to have their SOC on most machines. Looking at the state of Windows 10 devices with LTE/5G, the volume is still very low whether its in the consumer space, and I suspect also at the enterprise level. At least I have not seen companies I work for issuing laptops with LTE/5G to their operations folks. Most LTE enabled devices issued by companies are mostly tablets running iOS or Android.

Personally, I feel it might take some time before Qualcomm SOC to make any decent inroads on Windows 10. The OS has grown too fat and unwieldly over the decades. Qualcomm and most other SOC makers can't compete with the likes of Apple who tightly integrates their software with hardware.
 

keenklee

Arch-Supremacy Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2000
Messages
19,409
Reaction score
6,780
LTE and 5G chip sales won't make them as much money as if they are able to have their SOC on most machines. Looking at the state of Windows 10 devices with LTE/5G, the volume is still very low whether its in the consumer space, and I suspect also at the enterprise level. At least I have not seen companies I work for issuing laptops with LTE/5G to their operations folks. Most LTE enabled devices issued by companies are mostly tablets running iOS or Android.

Personally, I feel it might take some time before Qualcomm SOC to make any decent inroads on Windows 10. The OS has grown too fat and unwieldly over the decades. Qualcomm and most other SOC makers can't compete with the likes of Apple who tightly integrates their software with hardware.

Agreed, will take time. MS please work harder. :s13:
 

peterchan75

Supremacy Member
Joined
Apr 26, 2003
Messages
6,752
Reaction score
533
I think most people focuses only on Intel and AMD when it comes to CPU. But the bigger challenger is really ARM, whether its in the form of Apple's M1 or from Qualcomm. I think just a few years back, I think most people will brush off the fact that ARM processors are actually competitive against the likes of Intel and AMD. But of late, there are lots of new ARM based processors that have replaced what was traditionally very expensive Intel hardware. Apple's M1 chip while still not as good, is surprisingly competitive in terms of performance. So to be honest, even if Intel can ramp up 10nm volume, which I suspect they are still struggling, it may not be enough to stop their market share decline.

As for the cost of computers, I think you are looking at it the wrong way. Consider how much Intel charges you for the top end 4 core processor just 5 to 6 years back, and look again now to see what you are getting. For the same amount, you probably get more than double the amount of cores, which again Intel traditionally charges you an arm and a leg for it. So for your comparison, you should be comparing a like for like specs.

Qualcomm makes air interface chips aka modem. They hold the IP for CDMA. If AAPL choose to make its own modem, they have to pay QCOM. I don't think QCOM processor is as good as the M1. AMD just offer more cores and INTC has to follows at the expense of their cash cow. In lithography process of etching a 4 cores vs a 10 cores cpu onto a 300mm or 450mm wafer is the same, IF they get the design and process right. BTW, INTC managed to reverse the CPU market share trend last quarter.
 

Givemetheredpill

Junior Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2020
Messages
57
Reaction score
0
I think most people focuses only on Intel and AMD when it comes to CPU. But the bigger challenger is really ARM, whether its in the form of Apple's M1 or from Qualcomm. I think just a few years back, I think most people will brush off the fact that ARM processors are actually competitive against the likes of Intel and AMD. But of late, there are lots of new ARM based processors that have replaced what was traditionally very expensive Intel hardware. Apple's M1 chip while still not as good, is surprisingly competitive in terms of performance. So to be honest, even if Intel can ramp up 10nm volume, which I suspect they are still struggling, it may not be enough to stop their market share decline.

Well, there is the issue of legacy x86 software that so far only Apple managed to emulate with a small loss in performance. Arm/QC must also find a way to support x86 apps to snatch amd/intel marketshare. Personally, I think the "Intel getting replaced by Apple" thing was just a marketing stunt as either way it was going to happen, just that Intel gave Apple ammo to blame them by refreshing the same chips for 3-4 years.
Intel actually seems to be in a very good place right now because they are self-sufficient in manufacturing. Despite all the chip shortages, intel 14nm parts are super easy to get and are priced reasonably. Lots of 10nm capacity also came online recently, so its a matter of time until they are back to normal as long as tsmc continue to have supply issues.

As for the cost of computers, I think you are looking at it the wrong way. Consider how much Intel charges you for the top end 4 core processor just 5 to 6 years back, and look again now to see what you are getting. For the same amount, you probably get more than double the amount of cores, which again Intel traditionally charges you an arm and a leg for it. So for your comparison, you should be comparing a like for like specs.

I agree with your points. They technically didn't raise prices, but the quad-cores kept getting smaller each subsequent generation, and intel pocketed the savings (higher yield per wafer+lower defect rate). Today, 6-core cpus are treated as low-mid range but just a while ago, would have cost 400USD+ and require a hedt mobo. Compared to 2020, pricing today is quite bad but it is still a huge improvement over 2011-2017 pricing.
 

watzup_ken

High Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 21, 2003
Messages
25,670
Reaction score
2,123
Qualcomm makes air interface chips aka modem. They hold the IP for CDMA. If AAPL choose to make its own modem, they have to pay QCOM. I don't think QCOM processor is as good as the M1. AMD just offer more cores and INTC has to follows at the expense of their cash cow. In lithography process of etching a 4 cores vs a 10 cores cpu onto a 300mm or 450mm wafer is the same, IF they get the design and process right. BTW, INTC managed to reverse the CPU market share trend last quarter.

I think we don't have a lot of information to determine why Intel reversed the CPU market share trend. I feel a few factors would have come into play. Some that we know are,

1. Lack of AMD CPUs - The supply situation is dire for AMD. I believe they are pretty much selling all that TSMC can produce. Furthermore, it was the holiday seasons where people tend to spend more.

2. Price cut from Intel - Not sure if there is any pricing change at the enterprise level since they can cut out special deals with companies, but we do see some price reduction for the retail chips.

3. Short term bump in interest due to release of Tiger Lake U processors - I think the official release is Sep 2020 last year, so the timing sounds about right.
 

watzup_ken

High Supremacy Member
Joined
Nov 21, 2003
Messages
25,670
Reaction score
2,123
Well, there is the issue of legacy x86 software that so far only Apple managed to emulate with a small loss in performance. Arm/QC must also find a way to support x86 apps to snatch amd/intel marketshare. Personally, I think the "Intel getting replaced by Apple" thing was just a marketing stunt as either way it was going to happen, just that Intel gave Apple ammo to blame them by refreshing the same chips for 3-4 years.
Intel actually seems to be in a very good place right now because they are self-sufficient in manufacturing. Despite all the chip shortages, intel 14nm parts are super easy to get and are priced reasonably. Lots of 10nm capacity also came online recently, so its a matter of time until they are back to normal as long as tsmc continue to have supply issues.

Through this chip shortage issue, I think Intel can fend away angry investors demanding that they split out their foundry business. But I don't think Intel is immune to the foundry issue because one of the reason for the shortage is due to insufficient substrate as I recall reading. There are key "ingredients" to chip production and if that problem persists, Intel's foundry may likely be impacted. The good thing is that they can prioritize their own chips in their own fab.

As for the marketing, I have not heard about it. But I can imagine by word of mouth where people are saying that Apple's M1 is faster than Intel, Apple fans (whether tech savvy or not) and hardware enthusiasts may start buying one to use. I did not see the marketing, but I was also tempted to try one out of curiousity of all the wow things I saw online. As soon as they try out and don't feel that it is inferior to an Intel based Macbook, they will just to Apple's ARM chips going forward. So if you ask me, I think the marketing may have done its job.
 
Important Forum Advisory Note
This forum is moderated by volunteer moderators who will react only to members' feedback on posts. Moderators are not employees or representatives of HWZ Forums. Forum members and moderators are responsible for their own posts. Please refer to our Community Guidelines and Standards and Terms and Conditions for more information.
Top