Is Forex Profitable?

[[M]aiev]

blurinvestor, which TF do you use to trade most of the time? I assume you are swing trader kind right?

 

[blurinvestor]

blurinvestor, which TF do you use to trade most of the time? I assume you are swing trader kind right?

HTF - D1 and H4. Swing trader based on supply/demand(support/resistance)levels, weekly pivot.

occasionally, 15 to 30 minutes after news, if I think I can interpret the news as it released and the RR is good.

 

[blurinvestor]

How do I interpret this info? BUY NZD - sure or not

If I want to learn, I will open AUDUSD, NZDUSD, AUDNZD to OBSERVE not jump in to open an order. As days go by I think I will be able to interpret some of the info and news.

 

[ipaq4444]

How do I interpret this info? BUY NZD - sure or not

If I want to learn, I will open AUDUSD, NZDUSD, AUDNZD to OBSERVE not jump in to open an order. As days go by I think I will be able to interpret some of the info and news.

NZD/USD to remain under pressure, still buy?

 

[blurinvestor]

BUY NZD - sure or not

 

[philipsony]

HTF - D1 and H4. Swing trader based on supply/demand(support/resistance)levels, weekly pivot.

occasionally, 15 to 30 minutes after news, if I think I can interpret the news as it released and the RR is good.

got short the pesos today from US presidential debate?

 

[blurinvestor]

got short the pesos today from US presidential debate?

no I don't trade pesos.

Duterte will make Philippine for a better tomorrow. Unlike all the previous office holder only presidents.

Trump will change history, whereas Clinton will remain status quo and continue to weaken US after oMYmama.

Britain will have a better future, but not in the near future.

 

[Profit_Maker]

Hi TS, So what currency pair are you trading now?

 

[Profit_Maker]

An Indicator is not a trading system.

An Indicator is just a trading technique, which is just part of your trading rules.

What is your...

1. Trading Rules (Entries and Exits)
2. Money Management (How much to trade)
3. Trade Management (How to handle different sceneros)
4. Trade Journal (Records of your trades)
5. Backtesting Result (Historical result of your strategy)
6. Risk Reward Ratio (How much risk and reward you're taking)
7. Success Rate (How many times your strategy works)

without knowing these, you are basically flying blind.

Thanks for sharing this information.
I do agreed to most of the rules you have mentioned, except for 5.

5. Backtesting Result (Historical result of your strategy)
-> When one is trading 'live', I feel this information may not be useful at all. Since one cannot plotted them back to the histories of those currency pairs you have traded.
Pardon me as I do not know if there is any way to have those past trades plotted back onto the histories to test them.

I feel it is best to use a more simplified trading strategy which one can follow.
This trading strategy also depends on the type of trading style one employed; that is, either intraday trading or scalping (on shorter timeframe, eg. 1minute, 5minutes).

For me, I would just do 'scalping' since I wanted to make the small and consistent profits all the times using the common trading simple indicators, like; Moving Average, Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, RSI, Momentum and MACD.

Meanwhile, my strategy is very simple.

1. Observe
-> Observe patiently on a currency pair for at least 5minutes, or up to 30minutes

2. Wait and Make Move
-> Enter to buy/sell on that currency pair when the indicators (Bollinger Bands - use mid band, RSI and Momentum to confirm)

3. Take Profits/Cut Losses
-> Take profits when that currency pair has reached your desired Take Profit level that you have set if that currency pair is in your favour. Otherwise, cut short the Take Profit level and take as much profits as you can.
(DO NOT BE GREEDY. The objective is to make profits and avoid losses as much as possible.)

-> Cut losses when that currency pair is not in your favour due to sudden fluctuations by ensuring a Cut Loss level is in place. Use a comfortable Cut Loss level (like anything below 20-30pips that the currency pair has dropped from your original start trade value or pips). Unless you are very sure that currency pair will revert its direction. DO NOT TAKE THE RISK.

4. Contingency and Recovery
-> Ensure that your trading account has sufficient amount to cover any sudden fluctuations which prevent your trading account from blown out. Use a comfortable trading size or limit the number of trades you carry out. Eg. Open only 5 or lesser positions if your trade size is quite huge or relative to amount in your trading account, which is 10-20% max. for overall trades.

-> Have or open another trading account with the same broker so that you can transfer most of your profits (may be between 50-75%) into this new account. In the event if an unfavourable situation which may put you in a situation where your account is going to be blown out, you can then use these profits to put you back in the game and regain back your position by performing a recovery.
This recovery is basically not to carry out any trade but to maintain your position until the moment is right. Still have to follow point 1 & 2.

Although I have been using this trading strategy for about a few weeks, I am still trading with extreme caution and exert great flexibility, as well as with common sense (that is, when to cut losses or take profits and stop trading until the trading moment is right, or reduce trade size ...etc.) if the trading situation is not in my favour.

DISCLAIMER: I do not hold any responsibility if you failed and lost money when you used or tried my trading strategy. USE IT AT YOUR OWN RISK.

 

[alexchia01]

Thanks for sharing this information.
I do agreed to most of the rules you have mentioned, except for 5.

5. Backtesting Result (Historical result of your strategy)
-> When one is trading 'live', I feel this information may not be useful at all. Since one cannot plotted them back to the histories of those currency pairs you have traded.
Pardon me as I do not know if there is any way to have those past trades plotted back onto the histories to test them.

If you don't backtest, how do you know your strategy works? How do you know your Risk-Reward Ratio and Success Rate?

Many traders had already potted back to the histories of the pairs they traded.

If you can't do this, shouldn't your question be... Why others can do it and you can't? Instead of jumping into conclusion that this information is useless.

I feel it is best to use a more simplified trading strategy which one can follow.
This trading strategy also depends on the type of trading style one employed; that is, either intraday trading or scalping (on shorter timeframe, eg. 1minute, 5minutes).

For me, I would just do 'scalping' since I wanted to make the small and consistent profits all the times using the common trading simple indicators, like; Moving Average, Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, RSI, Momentum and MACD.

Meanwhile, my strategy is very simple.

1. Observe
-> Observe patiently on a currency pair for at least 5minutes, or up to 30minutes

2. Wait and Make Move
-> Enter to buy/sell on that currency pair when the indicators (Bollinger Bands - use mid band, RSI and Momentum to confirm)

3. Take Profits/Cut Losses
-> Take profits when that currency pair has reached your desired Take Profit level that you have set if that currency pair is in your favour. Otherwise, cut short the Take Profit level and take as much profits as you can.
(DO NOT BE GREEDY. The objective is to make profits and avoid losses as much as possible.)

-> Cut losses when that currency pair is not in your favour due to sudden fluctuations by ensuring a Cut Loss level is in place. Use a comfortable Cut Loss level (like anything below 20-30pips that the currency pair has dropped from your original start trade value or pips). Unless you are very sure that currency pair will revert its direction. DO NOT TAKE THE RISK.

4. Contingency and Recovery
-> Ensure that your trading account has sufficient amount to cover any sudden fluctuations which prevent your trading account from blown out. Use a comfortable trading size or limit the number of trades you carry out. Eg. Open only 5 or lesser positions if your trade size is quite huge or relative to amount in your trading account, which is 10-20% max. for overall trades.

-> Have or open another trading account with the same broker so that you can transfer most of your profits (may be between 50-75%) into this new account. In the event if an unfavourable situation which may put you in a situation where your account is going to be blown out, you can then use these profits to put you back in the game and regain back your position by performing a recovery.
This recovery is basically not to carry out any trade but to maintain your position until the moment is right. Still have to follow point 1 & 2.

Although I have been using this trading strategy for about a few weeks, I am still trading with extreme caution and exert great flexibility, as well as with common sense (that is, when to cut losses or take profits and stop trading until the trading moment is right, or reduce trade size ...etc.) if the trading situation is not in my favour.

DISCLAIMER: I do not hold any responsibility if you failed and lost money when you used or tried my trading strategy. USE IT AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Scalping is one of the most difficult trading skills. A few weeks is not enough to determine your strategy works. I know some strategy works during normal market condition, but goes haywire during volatile times. I suggest you backtest your strategy at least 5 years to ensure your strategy works for most market conditions.

 

[blurinvestor]

This might not be your cup of tea, but as for me this is where my journey began.

Take your time to understand Price Action (movement) without any indicator -

Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

Don't rush, digest the info slowly.

 

[wilsonchew93]

If you don't backtest, how do you know your strategy works? How do you know your Risk-Reward Ratio and Success Rate?

Many traders had already potted back to the histories of the pairs they traded.

If you can't do this, shouldn't your question be... Why others can do it and you can't? Instead of jumping into conclusion that this information is useless.



Scalping is one of the most difficult trading skills. A few weeks is not enough to determine your strategy works. I know some strategy works during normal market condition, but goes haywire during volatile times. I suggest you backtest your strategy at least 5 years to ensure your strategy works for most market conditions.

Hi there, if you read this article, you will know why backtest won't work. ->
Back Testing in Forex: Why It Doesn’t Work

It is still up to an individual to employ the type of trading strategy which he/she feels comfortable with and continues to make consistent profits out of it.

After all, there is no "one shoe fits all" strategy, but through many setbacks or failures in trading will make one more experienced and gaining more insights thus leading to being successful in generating consistent profits and avoiding/minimizing losses in Forex trading.

 

[alexchia01]

Hi there, if you read this article, you will know why backtest won't work. ->
Back Testing in Forex: Why It Doesn’t Work

It is still up to an individual to employ the type of trading strategy which he/she feels comfortable with and continues to make consistent profits out of it.

After all, there is no "one shoe fits all" strategy, but through many setbacks or failures in trading will make one more experienced and gaining more insights thus leading to being successful in generating consistent profits and avoiding/minimizing losses in Forex trading.

You do realize that the article was written by a salesman who makes money by you opening Binary Option account through his website. We don't even knows if he trades.

The article was written not to education, but to put his link onto that website.

Anyway his argument is flawed. Based on his argument, a strategy must 100% win in all trades before a backtest can be useful. But, there is no such strategy. All strategies has winners and losers. There is no 100% sure win strategy.

Trading is about probability. Backtest allow you to know which technique has high probability of success and fine tune your strategy. It does not guarantee all trades will win in the same type of setup everytimes. It does make you more prepared for opportunities.

 

[philipsony]

no I don't trade pesos.

Duterte will make Philippine for a better tomorrow. Unlike all the previous office holder only presidents.

Trump will change history, whereas Clinton will remain status quo and continue to weaken US after oMYmama.

Britain will have a better future, but not in the near future.

other than the duterte i agreed with the rest of what you said. duterte is too controversial , even more than trump. Trump at least have profitable biz record.

 

[wahkao3]

Scientists assume that the market price action has the Markov property, which means that to guess the price of the next five minutes from now on, all you need to know is the price of now (since we need to know if the asset is priced at $50 or $5000 right now). Nothing else is relevant. Back testing, on the other hand, is built on the notion that prices in general influence each other everywhere and create patterns that are constantly repeated, contradicting this intuitive assumption.

talk cock lehhhhhh

 

[wahkao3]

You do realize that the article was written by a salesman who makes money by you opening Binary Option account through his website. We don't even knows if he trades.

The article was written not to education, but to put his link onto that website.

Anyway his argument is flawed. Based on his argument, a strategy must 100% win in all trades before a backtest can be useful. But, there is no such strategy. All strategies has winners and losers. There is no 100% sure win strategy.

Trading is about probability. Backtest allow you to know which technique has high probability of success and fine tune your strategy. It does not guarantee all trades will win in the same type of setup everytimes. It does make you more prepared for opportunities.

agreed

I also do my own back test

 

[Shiny Things]

no I don't trade pesos.

Duterte will make Philippine for a better tomorrow. Unlike all the previous office holder only presidents.

Trump will change history, whereas Clinton will remain status quo and continue to weaken US after oMYmama.

Britain will have a better future, but not in the near future.

Er, mate, I think he's talking about Mexican pesos, not Philippine.

 

[blurinvestor]

Er, mate, I think he's talking about Mexican pesos, not Philippine.

Yes,you got me

 

[Profit_Maker]

If you don't backtest, how do you know your strategy works? How do you know your Risk-Reward Ratio and Success Rate?

Many traders had already potted back to the histories of the pairs they traded.

If you can't do this, shouldn't your question be... Why others can do it and you can't? Instead of jumping into conclusion that this information is useless.

Anyway, I still think backtesting creates 'false hopes' for most traders who thought that their strategies worked generally.
But, in real marketing trading situation where the market is volatile, chaotic and the currency pairs fluctuate in random patterns, these "backtested" strategies no longer work since 'repeated patterns' one seen in backtesting environment is not occurring in real trading situation.

Scalping is one of the most difficult trading skills. A few weeks is not enough to determine your strategy works. I know some strategy works during normal market condition, but goes haywire during volatile times. I suggest you backtest your strategy at least 5 years to ensure your strategy works for most market conditions.

Meanwhile, I am still comfortable with my trading strategy and style of trading and will stick to them since my success rate is almost 90% as I have closed many winning positions and made at least a few hundred dollars daily with a small base capital. Believe it or not.
I know my style of trading is very risky, but it worth my efforts and time.

That's all I have to say and share. Thanks.

 

[blurinvestor]

Meanwhile I think supply/demand and pivot works for me -

I am still reading about supply and demand link, after digesting that I will add 1 more for reading.