Let's play a marble game!

[focus1974]

I have 2,400,000 red/blue marbles.
I will then split this marbles into 15 small bottles and 18 big basket.
my assumption is I will just spread in evenly as below. No overly huge advantage to either side.

1st round after "random" pouring.
15 bottles has roughly 20,000 marbles each - the detail composition is 12,000 red and 8,000 blue on average
18 basket has roughly 116,000 marbles each - the detail composition is 60,000 red and 54,000 blue on average

2nd round. How do I tilt this into red balance favour for most of the bottles?
assuming I have 100,000 new RED marbles acquired over 5 years
In each of the 15 bottles, I will put in 1,000 new marbles. - new outcome is 13,000 red and 8,000 blue
In each of the 18 baskets, i will put in 4,700 new marbles - new outcome is 64,700 red and 54,000 blue

every round, i will add 100,000 new RED marbles. And I will not even change the composition of the initial marbles i have (marbles don't expired at all).

Will Blue marbles ever outnumbered the Red Marbles?
Is it possible to keep the blue marbles always under a certain range?

 

[Whimsica]

Unfortunately, life is not so simple.

In reality, red can turn into blue and blue into red.

Some new marbles might look red but at crucial times they can change colour.

Eg a high-profile influential new marble with a mohawk has been pushing all marbles to turn blue in a social media for professionals.

Eg some new marbles are upset when a big marble Heeheehee fug their ex-master whom they still regard as zhugong.

 

[glarerder]

I have 2,400,000 red/blue marbles.
I will then split this marbles into 15 small bottles and 18 big basket.
my assumption is I will just spread in evenly as below. No overly huge advantage to either side.

1st round after "random" pouring.
15 bottles has roughly 20,000 marbles each - the detail composition is 12,000 red and 8,000 blue on average
18 basket has roughly 116,000 marbles each - the detail composition is 60,000 red and 54,000 blue on average

2nd round. How do I tilt this into red balance favour for most of the bottles?
assuming I have 100,000 new RED marbles acquired over 5 years
In each of the 15 bottles, I will put in 1,000 new marbles. - new outcome is 13,000 red and 8,000 blue
In each of the 18 baskets, i will put in 4,700 new marbles - new outcome is 64,700 red and 54,000 blue

every round, i will add 100,000 new RED marbles. And I will not even change the composition of the initial marbles i have (marbles don't expired at all).

Will Blue marbles ever outnumbered the Red Marbles?

Need the help of marble boundary review committee to assess.

 

[VEF888]

That’s a neat little box to think in, but reality’s messier. Things change. Nothing’s constant except the flux, bah

 

[focus1974]

Unfortunately, life is not so simple.

In reality, red can turn into blue and blue into red.

Some new marbles might look red but at crucial times they can change colour.

Eg a high-profile influential new marble with a mohawk has been pushing all marbles to turn blue in a social media for professionals.

Eg some new marbles are upset when a big marble Heeheehee fug their ex-master whom they still regard as zhugong.

the marble game is all about probability of the assumptions turning out correct and at what quantity.

 

[Whimsica]

the marble game is all about probability of the assumptions turning out correct and at what quantity.

So the assumptions are not right, else it will be a straight line going upwards for red marbles instead of the ups and downs we saw since 2004.

 

[focus1974]

So the assumptions are not right, else it will be a straight line going upwards for red marbles instead of the ups and downs we saw since 2004.

no. since 2011... onwards...
that is the point of no return.

 

[Whimsica]

no. since 2011... onwards...
that is the point of no return.

2011 was the point where existing marbles got upset with the mass influx of new marbles.

Means new marble influx already happened before that.

Even if you start at 2011, it is still a series of ups and downs and not a straight upward line.

 

[focus1974]

2011 was the point where existing marbles got upset with the mass influx of new marbles.

Means new marble influx already happened before that.

Even if you start at 2011, it is still a series of ups and downs and not a straight upward line.

my point of the marbles game.. is not the up and down you see.. which is still within the range..
the point of the game is .. exactly .. how to keep something under a range.

But my marble game not playing politics. why you keep bringing politics inside?

 

[Shion]

depends if these marbles are counted under FPTP plurality or MMP or party-list...

 

[deathan9el]

seriously ..
who even plays w/ marbles these days anw ..

by the millions at that

 

[focus1974]

seriously ..
who even plays w/ marbles these days anw ..

by the millions at that

u can replace that with coins, beans, whatever rock your boat.