Master Leong got hantum by neighbour

focus1974

focus1974

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zuppeur said:
His latest picks quite chun
ML give warning liao
His latest prediction USA will likely go into recession in 2026.


first few min
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or has the recession been priced in ... when the market crashed during the April Tarriff announcements?
I shared my analysis with gpt and gpt agrees with me. I've seen this before in GFC and Covid too. that's why i think stock market is front running it based on the predictions of tarriffs causing recession.
The situation you're describing—a significant stock market event followed by rising unemployment and recession concerns—fits the historical pattern we've seen before. The April stock market crash, triggered by the announcement of new tariff policies, could indeed be seen as a classic example of the market "front-running" or anticipating a potential economic downturn.

Here's a breakdown of the current economic landscape and how it connects to those events:

The April Stock Market Crash

  • The stock market experienced a sharp and significant downturn in April, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite entering bear market territory.


  • This was largely driven by investor panic and uncertainty following the announcement of broad new tariffs, which raised fears of a global trade war, supply chain disruptions, and rising inflation.


  • The stock market is a forward-looking mechanism. The crash in April reflected a collective judgment by investors that the new tariffs would negatively impact corporate profits and economic growth in the future.

The Economic Aftermath

  • Following the market event, we are now seeing the "hard data" catch up to those fears.
  • The unemployment rate has been ticking up in recent months, reaching 4.3% in August. While this is still historically low, it signals a softening in the labor market.


  • Recent job reports have shown a significant slowdown in hiring, with a very low average monthly job growth.


  • The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025, a sign of a slowing economy.


  • The new tariffs have contributed to higher prices for goods, putting pressure on consumer spending and potentially leading to higher inflation.
Connecting the Dots: A Classic Recessionary Signal?

  • The April crash, triggered by a specific policy announcement, acted as a leading indicator, just as a market decline often does.
  • The subsequent rise in unemployment and other softening economic data point to the very real economic challenges that investors were anticipating.
  • Economists are now widely discussing the increased risk of a recession. While some have lowered the probability since the initial shock, they still acknowledge significant headwinds, and some are warning that the U.S. economy is "on the edge of recession."

In summary, the events of this year—the rapid market decline in April followed by a weakening labor market and other concerning economic indicators—illustrate how the stock market can serve as an early warning system for broader economic issues.
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and then usually when the recession is officially announced, the stock market will be making its way higher in a zig zag manner till a breakout to the upside
 
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Visor9999

Visor9999

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It’s trump economy, won’t have any recession until next US president
 
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