Milo's TA discussion and sharing thread

[hanoraptor]

TA on Ezra and Thaibev

Hi,

Can tell me Ezra still gt potential to go up? and thaibev too

 

[Seannie]

Just curious why a penny can rise up from 8 cents then drop right down back still can shoot a second round? Aint pennies supposed to be pump & dump stocks which cant apply TA?

 

[Nakedtoes]

Tp stragic leh.. Also 8cent to 50 cent lagi scary. Market is controlled by CKs. They want which stock become gem they just push

 

[supratentorium]

Just curious why a penny can rise up from 8 cents then drop right down back still can shoot a second round? Aint pennies supposed to be pump & dump stocks which cant apply TA?

TA = study of supply of demand. If there's buying and selling why can't you apply it? You think it's random? Some random computer generate a buy or sell signal or someone draws a lucky draw ticket and then buy it.
Ask yourself why did price come down hard then make a new high.

If you have a lot of money and want to buy a lot, are you going to just buy everything at one shot?

 

[Seannie]

Tp stragic leh.. Also 8cent to 50 cent lagi scary. Market is controlled by CKs. They want which stock become gem they just push

If a stock presents a shooting star formation is that usually bearish? What if after the shooting star price stays rangebound lets say ard the opening price of the day of the shooting star? What does this mean and what can we project in the coming weeks? If the CKs are controlling, will prices just rocket or collapse regardless of TA?

 

[Milo-Dino]

If a stock presents a shooting star formation is that usually bearish? What if after the shooting star price stays rangebound lets say ard the opening price of the day of the shooting star? What does this mean and what can we project in the coming weeks? If the CKs are controlling, will prices just rocket or collapse regardless of TA?

shooting star needs confirmation candle of the following day

TA is not 100% accurate and never will be. It just gives people with study/practise it, knowledge of what is the probability of what will happen in the future.

It's all about probability.... say shooting star formation gives u a probability of 50% bearish, 30% sideways, 20% bullish. What would you do? Would u choose to make a bullish bet knowing that the succession rate is just 20%?

I noticed you like to troll alot... even in the watch thread.... *shakes head*

 

[Seannie]

shooting star needs confirmation candle of the following day
It's all about probability.... say shooting star formation gives u a probability of 50% bearish, 30% sideways, 20% bullish. What would you do? Would u choose to make a bullish bet knowing that the succession rate is just 20%?
I noticed you like to troll alot... even in the watch thread....*shakes head*

Frankly i do not know why people say i troll and i dont truly know the meaning of it. I m only asking relevant questions to the topic discussed here which is TA which i wish to know more. Hopefully u dont link the watch thread and here becimis its totally different topics. I tok serious and never off thread here.

So if the next day after the shooting star, price did not continue to drop much but rather stay rangebound what does that entail?

To your last point, if 50% chance is bearish 30% sideways i will seriously consider sell my holdings. 20% chance of bullish breakout not a good bet.

I just want to know more so that i can make a more informed decision.

 

[Milo-Dino]

Frankly i do not know why people say i troll and i dont truly know the meaning of it. I m only asking relevant questions to the topic discussed here which is TA which i wish to know more. Hopefully u dont link the watch thread and here becimis its totally different topics. I tok serious and never off thread here.

So if the next day after the shooting star, price did not continue to drop much but rather stay rangebound what does that entail?

To your last point, if 50% chance is bearish 30% sideways i will seriously consider sell my holdings. 20% chance of bullish breakout not a good bet.

I just want to know more so that i can make a more informed decision.

What do you mean by rangebound? doji?
If doji, it needs further confirmation.

If it's a red/black candle, most TA people will treat it as a confirmation candle and sell first talk later.

 

[ChiuSiaoRiao]

Can TA sheng siong?

 

[Seannie]

What do you mean by rangebound? doji?
If doji, it needs further confirmation.

If it's a red/black candle, most TA people will treat it as a confirmation candle and sell first talk later.

Rangebound meaning it stayed around the opening price of the day of the shooting star. On that day price shotup high then drop back to slightly above the opening price and has been staying ard that price for a few days. Thanks. So it means its mostly a bearish sign.

 

[Seannie]

I cant differentiate between shooting star and gravestone doji. Are they quite the same?

 

[wahkao3]

So if the next day after the shooting star, price did not continue to drop much but rather stay rangebound what does that entail?

Shall I do a simulation to give some statistics?


Results on SGX:

All Trades
Trades Taken: 162
Total Net Profit: $15,489.00
Average Trade Profit: $95.61
Maximum Trade Profit: $31,845.36
Minimum Trade Profit: ($5,272.04)
Break Even Trades: 0
Winning Trades: 41
Losing Trades: 121
Percent Profitable: 25.31%
Average Winning Trade Profit: $4,541.00
Average Losing Trade Profit: ($1,410.68)

 

[wahkao3]

Results on NYSE + NASQAC
The results seems quite gd on the US market

All Trades
Trades Taken: 416
Total Net Profit: $164,524.08
Average Trade Profit: $395.49
Maximum Trade Profit: $26,683.86
Minimum Trade Profit: ($6,469.73)
Break Even Trades: 0
Winning Trades: 161
Losing Trades: 255
Percent Profitable: 38.70%
Average Winning Trade Profit: $3,235.67
Average Losing Trade Profit: ($1,397.72)

 

[Milo-Dino]

wahkao, your statistics, where does your simulation set the stop loss?

When does your simulation set to take profit?

These trend reversal trades are basically looking for the exact point where trends reverse. Thus, it's not surprising to see more losing trades than winning trades. But similarly, the stops are usually pretty close by. Thus risk reward ratios are very good once u hit it right.

However, if you are a swing trader, the shooting star pattern usually will show a couple of days of weakness (even if the trend isn't reversing but a mere correction). Hence, the number of winning trades will be higher for this category of traders.

 

[Milo-Dino]

I cant differentiate between shooting star and gravestone doji. Are they quite the same?

Do you really need to differentiate them?

They are essentially telling you the same thing...

just that gravestone doji opens and closes at day low

 

[Milo-Dino]

Can TA sheng siong?

looks like a top on 1st August with the inverted hammer candle followed by a gravestone doji and a bearish engulfing the next 2 days.

Last friday seems to have a flash crash to the 200ma at around 64c.
Immediate support at 65c followed by 200ma support at 64c.

 

[Milo-Dino]

hi can help TA Indoagri and swiber pls? thanks!

Indo

Indo hit resistance at 85.5c which is also the 50ma.

Still haven't hit my 58c target from triangle breakdown...

Swiber

Didn't hit my triangle breakdown target around 60c. Bounced and held above 200ma

Supported by the trendline support since 2011...

 

[Milo-Dino]

Hi,

Can tell me Ezra still gt potential to go up? and thaibev too

Ezra is fueled by takeover rumours so I rather not TA with the jaw dropping climb the last 3 days.
2013 high is at 1.36

Thai fulfilled the H/S and recovered.
Now trading in a narrow channel...

Downtrend resistance looks to be around 54.0-55.5c region.

 

[Zkinny]

Can TA singtel and noble? If its convenient please gime some advise also if possible. Thanks a lot.

 

[wahkao3]

wahkao, your statistics, where does your simulation set the stop loss?

When does your simulation set to take profit?

These trend reversal trades are basically looking for the exact point where trends reverse. Thus, it's not surprising to see more losing trades than winning trades. But similarly, the stops are usually pretty close by. Thus risk reward ratios are very good once u hit it right.

However, if you are a swing trader, the shooting star pattern usually will show a couple of days of weakness (even if the trend isn't reversing but a mere correction). Hence, the number of winning trades will be higher for this category of traders.

around 15%
take profit at sell signal

honestly , i didnt go deep into it. I base it upon buy and sell signals as defined by the shooting star and inverted hammer