Gold enjoyed its second bullish session and closed above 1,800 and its 200-day eMA. Yet with price action remaining erratic overall we do not yet feel confident that the corrective phase has neared completion. Over the foreseeable future, gold may be better suited for intraday traders until a decisive trend is established on the daily chart.
The US dollar index (DXY) has found support around its 10 and 50-day eMA. Yet as Friday’s selloff (a bearish engulfing day) clouds sentiment we cannot write off its potential to break lower. Equity markets may hold the key to help decipher the dollar’s next directional move, as higher stocks typically point towards a weaker dollar. But there’s an alternative scenario. With US indices currently sitting at all-time highs and printing an unusually small bullish candle, one should question if there is an appetite for higher stocks at current levels. And if there isn’t, we could see indices correct lower and provide a level of support for the dollar.
Elsewhere, USD/JPY continues to dance to its own beat and trade in a corrective manner after enjoying an impressive bullish run last week. A second bearish hammer has formed on the daily chart, prices have closed firmly beneath the 200-day eMA and the stochastic oscillator has produced a bearish sell-signal. But that is not to say we see further downside as the easier trade. We remain bullish on the pair overall but would prefer to wait for the correction to play out and seek bullish setups once a new level of support has been found.