Need Help! Unit trust investment

tangent314

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From the YTM of the underlying funds, you lose the management fees. There are market forces on bonds. The fund of course has a large amount of high yield bonds in emerging countries so there will likely have been some defaults. And of course, the SGD has been strengthening against the USD for the past couple of decades
 

BBCWatcher

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i was looking at yield to maturity of 9%.
Echoing Tangent314's point, in the major currencies a 9% yield indicates very junky bonds, a.k.a. "high yield bonds."

Even Hyflux borrowed at 6% about three years ago. ;) And this unit trust is holding bonds with an average YTM of >9%, meaning some of them have YTMs of 10%, 11%, 15%?!?! Wow, those are some "special" bonds, aren't they?
 

BBCWatcher

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Looking at this Franklin Templeton Global Total Return unit trust again, its yield to maturity is 9.94%. Wow, that's breathtaking, especially given the fact the fund is so heavily weighted to U.S. dollar denominated bonds when comparable maturity U.S. Treasuries are yielding about 2.45%. That's a roughly 750 basis point spread.

So what accounts for that? It's complicated, but to net it out they're holding lots of crap. They've got (as an example) bonds issued by the government of Ghana with advertised 16+% coupon rates. Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Philippines, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, El Salvador, Indonesia...they're all in there, all evidently borrowing in U.S. dollars that none of those governments can print or raise in taxes. It's a pile of fantasies, really. The most optimistic spin I can put on this is that maybe most of these bonds will perform as promised.
 

hwmook

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i was looking at yield to maturity of 9%.
i guess that’s going to be a longer term kind

No wonder I can't get the same number you quote. You are looking at the wrong data. A yield to maturity of 9% mean nothing because it's unlikely all bonds can be redeemed eventually, there will be defaults along the way and you can see it from the NAV trend, the actual returns is not great.
 

hwmook

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Looking at this Franklin Templeton Global Total Return unit trust again, its yield to maturity is 9.94%. Wow, that's breathtaking, especially given the fact the fund is so heavily weighted to U.S. dollar denominated bonds when comparable maturity U.S. Treasuries are yielding about 2.45%. That's a roughly 750 basis point spread.

So what accounts for that? It's complicated, but to net it out they're holding lots of crap. They've got (as an example) bonds issued by the government of Ghana with advertised 16+% coupon rates. Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Philippines, Ukraine, Ivory Coast, El Salvador, Indonesia...they're all in there, all evidently borrowing in U.S. dollars that none of those governments can print or raise in taxes. It's a pile of fantasies, really. The most optimistic spin I can put on this is that maybe most of these bonds will perform as promised.

Even though I have bought high yield bond funds before but this fund is really fill with extreme junks. Please avoid this type of fund.
 

BBCWatcher

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Digging into this a bit more, it's a bit confusing, but most of these bonds seem to be local currency denominated rather than U.S. dollar denominated. But then they've got some sort of partial currency hedging with derivatives -- it's all rather confusing.

You can get some very high YTMs in local currencies. For example, Ghana's currency is called the Cedi. The annualized consumer inflation rate in Ghanaian Cedi terms was 9.3% in March, 2019, and it looks like the inflation rate is wobbling between 9 and 10% eyeballing the past year. The YTM on Cedi-nominated bonds have to be higher than the inflation rate (and inflation rate expectations), otherwise nobody would buy the bonds.

The fund manager may be slightly clever here from a marketing point of view. Just insert some Ghanaian Cedi-denominated bonds into your fund, and you too can jack up the Yield to Maturity figure! ;)

Let's see what else we can find.... OK, Mexican peso inflation is running in the 4 to 5% range. Brazilian real inflation is running at about 4.5%. Indonesia at about 3 to 3.5% (a little less very recently). Argentina peso inflation at...whoa, OK, 50+%. (Nearly 8% of this unit trust is invested in Argentine bonds.) Yeah, there you go, that explains it. That's how you're getting a phat YTM.

Translated back into a major currency, or into a quality currency such as Singapore dollars (see what I did there?), that YTM is basically meaningless. Over time you'll be able to buy more and more and more Argentine pesos for every Singapore dollar -- the exchange rate will adjust. Sure enough, that's exactly what you've seen with that unit trust. The nearly 10% YTM has translated back into Singapore dollar terms as a fairly ordinary (and expensive, due to the management fees) high yield sovereign bond fund, basically. Apparently with a little currency hedging which softens the volatility a bit, and with more cost.

Run away. This is not worth your time or attention.
 

saggice

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you guys are really the expert in this, let me try out a little and keep you guys updated. But if anyone knows any great performing bonds please share!
 

Shine.gdj

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sometimes comparing too much is bad, just like comparing salaries. The question is whether you are happy with the return that the unit trusts provide.

In this time of crisis, is the First State Bridge fund attractive? What platform do I use to buy FSB and what commission is payable?

For example, I have used my CPF to buy unit trusts, First State Bridge and First State Greater China. From 1, 3, 5, 10 year timeframe, these unit trusts have always beat the 2.5% CPF interest and I am totally satisfied with that. I also use CPF to buy STI ETF and a couple of other local shares but I don't want my entire CPFIS account to be only holding Singapore stocks.

Furthermore, I gain geographical diversification and also asset class diversification (FSB holds bonds). You cannot use CPF money to buy foreign stocks and ETFs.

In this time of crisis, is it a good time to buy FSB? Are the returns still better than CPF OA? From which platform should I buy FSB and what are the commission and expense ratios?

Thanks!
 

Warocks

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Sorry, I missed this earlier. Hope you're still around.

If you purchase a fund for $10000 and after one year it pays you $500 in dividends and if the value of the fund drops to $9500, you don't exactly lose money. The fund is performing at 0%.

Generally when calculating the actual performances of a fund, reinvestment of dividends is assumed.
 

limster

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sometimes comparing too much is bad, just like comparing salaries. The question is whether you are happy with the return that the unit trusts provide.

For example, I have used my CPF to buy unit trusts, First State Bridge and First State Greater China. From 1, 3, 5, 10 year timeframe, these unit trusts have always beat the 2.5% CPF interest and I am totally satisfied with that. I also use CPF to buy STI ETF and a couple of other local shares but I don't want my entire CPFIS account to be only holding Singapore stocks.

Furthermore, I gain geographical diversification and also asset class diversification (FSB holds bonds). You cannot use CPF money to buy foreign stocks and ETFs.

In this time of crisis, is it a good time to buy FSB? Are the returns still better than CPF OA? From which platform should I buy FSB and what are the commission and expense ratios?

Thanks!

My post was in 2018 and didn't realise that someone quoted it and asked a question in 2020 until someone necro the thread.... =:p

Anyway, good opportunity to pull up the returns of First State Bridge to see if they beat CPF-OA (spoiler alert - its usually how much they beat CPF-OA, not if they beat CPF-OA). Remember that FSB has 50% bonds... so the total returns despite the low interest rate environment shows how good the fund manager is.

From FSM's factsheet. https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/funds/factsheet/FSBRDG/First-Sentier-Bridge-A-DIS-SGD:

First State Bridge
1 year return: 12.73%
3 year return: 8.43% annualised (i.e. 25%+ total gain since my 2018 post)

Like I said way back in 2018, UT have a lot of haters, please DYODD, if you are satisfied with the returns UT provide, ahead and invest in them. My UT investments easily beat CPF 2.5% every year and that's good enough for me. :D
 

dappermen

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the returns of First State Bridge https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/funds/factsheet/FSBRDG/First-Sentier-Bridge-A-DIS-SGD:

First State Bridge
1 year return: 12.73%
3 year return: 8.43% annualised (i.e. 25%+ total gain since my 2018 post)

Like I said way back in 2018, UT have a lot of haters, please DYODD, if you are satisfied with the returns UT provide, ahead and invest in them. My UT investments easily beat CPF 2.5% every year and that's good enough for me. :D
this is q a gd 1!!!!!!!! i liked it many yrs ago
evn Now UT still have a lot of haters!
 
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