New Cpf Life Calculation

OngHuatHuat

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More than 8 %? Say this before you have concrete proof.
http://www.kwsp.gov.my/portal/about-epf/investment-highlights/dividend-rates/dividend-rates
fZEsj3e.jpg



There are only that few years they manage to give 6 + %.
Last time it was 4 + to 5 %.

Basically what you are doing is demanding a high interest rate on a strong currency acccount. For sgd, even 3 % on this account is good enough.


you want to compare with epf scheme? it is more than 8% interest. wow their scheme is better than ours.

but yywin is right, if you look that the strength of their currency, you would be glad that your money is in the cpf.
 

BBCWatcher

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a system that requires you to break even at the age of 92 is not a great deal.
That's not the correct calculation even on its own terms, but leave that aside. A "great deal" is straightforwardly defined by the best viable alternative. What's the better deal that the private annuity market offers? There isn't one. It doesn't exist. Ergo, CPF LIFE is a great deal. It's the #1 best value in its category (lifetime assured annuities paid in Singapore dollars).

If anyone knows of a better annuity deal than CPF LIFE, great! Please let us all know!

As a separate matter, if you want to make a purely political argument that the government ought to offer an even better deal than its already #1 best lifetime annuity, I may join you in that argument. But it's a separate argument. For example, an inflation-adjusted annuity would be an even better deal. Next year CPF LIFE will start offering a lifetime annuity payout option with a 2% annual fixed increase. That's getting much closer to what I'd consider ideal (true adjustment for elder inflation, never with any decrease in the nominal payout).
 

w1rbelw1nd

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CPF LIFE is simply a modest amount of longevity insurance, to protect against outliving your savings. The age-related arguments people try to make are getting tedious. They completely miss the whole point of insurance.

If you think CPF LIFE isn't a great deal, then just go compare it with the best, comparable annuity that the private sector has to offer. And you won't find anything comparable in the private annuity market that's as good a deal as CPF LIFE. When I checked recently it appears to me that CPF LIFE ranks among the best of the private sector annuities offered in the United States, the largest and most efficient financial market in the world. It's really very good value-for-premium.

Yes... Ultimately we shouldnt be looking to "profit" from this arrangement, but rather to request/demand for a very competitive, sustainable annuity from economies of scale, which I believe the government has delivered to us in CPF Life.

To further the point on sustainability, I am glad that the government is giving a reasonable % return on this, even in the current low interest environment. Frankly, I would be very worried if the government commits to a ridiculously high % that cannot be backed by investment returns (god we know how bad our sovereign wealth funds are doing) and in the end our credit rating and financial strength weakens.
 

dork32

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Ern, then might as well, use a much higher interest rate to compound and say it is very fair? :)

cpf life calculator use tis rate. if we cannot use this rate, then cpf website is a fraud. then cpf is a fraud.
 

dork32

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More than 8 %? Say this before you have concrete proof.
http://www.kwsp.gov.my/portal/about-epf/investment-highlights/dividend-rates/dividend-rates
fZEsj3e.jpg



There are only that few years they manage to give 6 + %.
Last time it was 4 + to 5 %.

Basically what you are doing is demanding a high interest rate on a strong currency acccount. For sgd, even 3 % on this account is good enough.

i agree with you on this point lah.

yeah i may have misread the epf rate but it is still way higher than what cpf offers.
 

OngHuatHuat

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Ern, since when they announce the interest rate during the payout period and what kind of assumption they use for lifespan? Perhaps you can share the link here, I can refine my model to better reflect this.

cpf life calculator use tis rate. if we cannot use this rate, then cpf website is a fraud. then cpf is a fraud.
 

OngHuatHuat

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Way higher is an incorrect term to use in my opinion.
Sgd is rising over a long period of time, like what I said, weaker currency normally gives higher interest rate but it is not reflected in buying power.
Sgd on the other hand, has been strengthening.

It is up to you to choose whether to keep your money in ringgit or sgd.

i agree with you on this point lah.

yeah i may have misread the epf rate but it is still way higher than what cpf offers.
 

dork32

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That's not the correct calculation even on its own terms, but leave that aside. A "great deal" is straightforwardly defined by the best viable alternative. What's the better deal that the private annuity market offers? There isn't one. It doesn't exist. Ergo, CPF LIFE is a great deal. It's the #1 best value in its category (lifetime assured annuities paid in Singapore dollars).

If anyone knows of a better annuity deal than CPF LIFE, great! Please let us all know!

As a separate matter, if you want to make a purely political argument that the government ought to offer an even better deal than its already #1 best lifetime annuity, I may join you in that argument. But it's a separate argument. For example, an inflation-adjusted annuity would be an even better deal. Next year CPF LIFE will start offering a lifetime annuity payout option with a 2% annual fixed increase. That's getting much closer to what I'd consider ideal (true adjustment for elder inflation, never with any decrease in the nominal payout).

you may be right that there may not be better deals around.

it just means that all the annuities are rubbish and we should not be putting money into rubbish.

if is like a bank is offering an interest of 0.1% whereas the rest of the world is offering 0.05%. You tell everyone this bank is giving a fantastic rate. No, they are all offering rubbish rates.

if i have money, is buying annuity the only choice? is it possible look for other instruments?

you people always mention that cpf is risk free. if you die before 92, you LOSE. when you can LOSE, it is not called risk free.

i reiterate, to survive to 92 just to break even is not a good deal.
 

OngHuatHuat

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Same thinking here. :)
I am more worried about the sustainability of this model actually.

Yes... Ultimately we shouldnt be looking to "profit" from this arrangement, but rather to request/demand for a very competitive, sustainable annuity from economies of scale, which I believe the government has delivered to us in CPF Life.

To further the point on sustainability, I am glad that the government is giving a reasonable % return on this, even in the current low interest environment. Frankly, I would be very worried if the government commits to a ridiculously high % that cannot be backed by investment returns (god we know how bad our sovereign wealth funds are doing) and in the end our credit rating and financial strength weakens.
 

dork32

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Next year CPF LIFE will start offering a lifetime annuity payout option with a 2% annual fixed increase. That's getting much closer to what I'd consider ideal (true adjustment for elder inflation, never with any decrease in the nominal payout).

i dont want to argue about this point. they have not mentioned the bequest amount for this system. i will not be able to comment whether it is good or not.
 

BBCWatcher

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it just means that all the annuities are rubbish and we should not be putting money into rubbish.
That doesn't follow.

Insuring against outliving your savings, with ironclad protection (extremely reliable payout), isn't necessarily "cheap." That's rather the point. It takes some financial backing to make and to keep that commitment.

if is like a bank is offering an interest of 0.1% whereas the rest of the world is offering 0.05%. You tell everyone this bank is giving a fantastic rate. No, they are all offering rubbish rates.
By what standard? If there's little or no inflation, or deflation, 0.1% truly is fantastic. Are you familiar with Japan? ;)

Usain Bolt ran the 100 meter dash in 9.572 seconds. There have been other many other sprinters who have run the 100 meter dash in under 10 seconds. Sports researchers believe that the fastest among our species might be able to get as low as 9.27 seconds. Theoretically. So is Bolt's 9.572 second sprint "rubbish"? No, of course not. He holds the world record. He's the best. The theoretical best performance is only theoretical. We live in the real world.

CPF LIFE is the best value (and highest quality, as it happens) guaranteed lifetime annuity paying in Singapore dollars. Metaphorically, it's also a 9.7 second 100 meter sprinter among U.S. lifetime annuities. CPF LIFE is world class. There's a benchmark here.

If you want to describe all guaranteed lifetime annuities as "rubbish" then what's the alternative insurance to protect against outliving savings? For example, is your alternative proposal that the children and grandchildren of elderly Singaporeans be required to backstop their elders? (And what about elder Singaporeans with no children?) What's the alternative, realistic proposal to address this very real problem (elder destitution)?

if i have money, is buying annuity the only choice? is it possible look for other instruments?
What other instrument(s) insure against outliving one's savings?

if you die before 92, you LOSE.
That calculation is wrong, as already pointed out. You can't assume that CPF's interest rates are some universal constant, and then plug those into an annuity calculation. The world doesn't work that way.

But no, you don't "lose." You might otherwise be destitute at age 65 or at any point thereafter. CPF LIFE means you won't be, not utterly. The monthly payment stream is itself an important aspect of the insurance. Just as it was with the Retirement Sum Scheme. The problem with RSS was that it was/is common to outlive RSS. CPF LIFE fixes that.

And beyond that, do you still not understand what insurance is? You're not a property insurance "loser" when your home fails to burn down. You were simply insured against a risk that did not befall you, personally. Thank goodness it didn't befall you. A lifetime guaranteed annuity is like that, with only one difference: you're hoping to live a long time. You're hoping for the fire, so to speak. You're insuring to protect against the happy event of living a long, long time. But it's otherwise the same basic insurance principle.

Are you a MediShield Life "loser" when you don't get sick, die suddenly of a stroke at home in your sleep, and go directly to your funeral? No, you were lucky, healthy, and had basic medical insurance just in case you weren't. You can't predict this stuff, and that's why there's insurance.

What I suspect is possible is that rather well-to-do people are making these sorts of arguments because they think they're invincible, and they don't like the idea of universal participation. But I think that's pretty ridiculous. Even if you are one of those people and think that you're exceptional, and you ought not be required to participate in CPF LIFE, if you are truly wealthy then CPF LIFE is so tiny you really ought to get a life (pun intended) and worry about real problems. This tiny bit of longevity insurance simply won't affect you, the filthy rich invincible.
 

w1rbelw1nd

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i dont want to argue about this point. they have not mentioned the bequest amount for this system. i will not be able to comment whether it is good or not.

https://www.cpf.gov.sg/members/schemes/schemes/retirement/cpf-life

How does the bequest work?

A bequest is the money that you leave to your beneficiaries after your death.

Under the CPF LIFE plans, we will refund all your unused annuity premium (without interest) *and Retirement Account savings, if any, after your death.

We will pay any refund into your CPF account. This will then be paid to your beneficiaries along with your remaining CPF savings.

So how did you assume the 92 years old breakeven? Based on zero bequest? :/
 

w1rbelw1nd

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What I suspect is possible is that rather well-to-do people are making these sorts of arguments because they think they're invincible, and they don't like the idea of universal participation. But I think that's pretty ridiculous. Even if you are one of those people and think that you're exceptional, and you ought not be required to participate in CPF LIFE, if you are truly wealthy then CPF LIFE is so tiny you really ought to get a life (pun intended) and worry about real problems. This tiny bit of longevity insurance simply won't affect you, the filthy rich invincible.

Well I can understand this viewpoint actually. I was quite annoyed at how CPF locks up a good part of my income (OMG I cannot efficiently invest beyond our dogs*** SGX ggwp) just because some less financially literate fellow citizens cant be trusted to handle their own finance. As you rightfully point out, yea even though this CPF Life Scheme may be seen as an impediment to my inheritance goal, I think it is better to "force" every one to be in.

Like you say, if it is big enough a sum to impact you, then better for our nanny state to manage it for you at the best returns you can get in the market. If the BRS is a pittance to you, why are you even complaining? Do your part in risk pooling and help government have some EoS in the admin of CPF life la.
 

henrylbh

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The following table has been abridged (by hiding rows).

The average monthly payout of 1330 based on FRS of 166k with additional interest would last till 92yo 10 months. If I were to delete or ignore the additional interest on first and second 30k, the monthly payout would last till 88 yo 6 months. :s13: hope no error in formula.

The CPF Life Payout Estimator does not give info on bequest age by age and month by month. But from the scanty info, the bequest appears to be lower than the "Balance" at the age given by the calculator. That's the 'premium' you pay to receive payout beyond 92 yo 10 months. Happy?

Note - interest is calculated on the Balance at beginning of each month after deducting the month's payout.

CPF%20-%20projected%20payout_zpsosyda80d.jpg
 

henrylbh

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Payout period estimate interest I think is between 3-4 % only. Higher than what i calculated last year.

No need to think. RA is earning 4% with additional 2% on first 30k and 1% on next 30k. How can payout estimate interest lower at between 3-4%?

Remember you said rising interest rate helps? Anyway, CPF website estimates interest to be between 3.75% and 4.25% for Life payout.
 

BBCWatcher

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You can't just plug in CPF's current non-annuity interest rate and call it a day. CPF is paying above market interest, and that's part of CPF LIFE, too. It's supporting a bigger entry premium for more people. It's part of the program. But that doesn't mean CPF LIFE's imputed actuarial return post-entry necessarily must be as wonderful as the pre-entry portion of CPF LIFE.

Here's the calculation you should run. Suppose a 25 year old deposits $60,000 into her Special Account. Now calculate the CPF LIFE annuity. Compare that to the 25 year old depositing $60,000 into NTUC's lifetime annuity with a deferred payout starting at age 65. How do these compare?

But, bottom line, you cannot say "CPF SA pays 4% (or more), so therefore CPF LIFE annuities suck because the imputed actuarial return during the payout years is lower." That doesn't make any sense. It's all one program.
 

dork32

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You can't just plug in CPF's current non-annuity interest rate and call it a day. CPF is paying above market interest, and that's part of CPF LIFE, too. It's supporting a bigger entry premium for more people. It's part of the program. But that doesn't mean CPF LIFE's imputed actuarial return post-entry necessarily must be as wonderful as the pre-entry portion of CPF LIFE.

Here's the calculation you should run. Suppose a 25 year old deposits $60,000 into her Special Account. Now calculate the CPF LIFE annuity. Compare that to the 25 year old depositing $60,000 into NTUC's lifetime annuity with a deferred payout starting at age 65. How do these compare?

But, bottom line, you cannot say "CPF SA pays 4% (or more), so therefore CPF LIFE annuities suck because the imputed actuarial return during the payout years is lower." That doesn't make any sense. It's all one program.
do you know what you are talking? cpf life basic is exactly same as the old non annuity scheme. it is just a small amount is withdrawn to buy the annuity such that the payout continues when the ra runs out. so why cannot use it?
 

henrylbh

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Why digress to private annuity for comparison?

The point is whether there is a real need for CPF Life compared to the old retirement sum scheme with much higher payout lasting to age 82 (the last cohort under RSS is getting 1,240 for RA of 139,000 and the first cohort under CPFL is getting average of 1,081 for RA of 148,000 :s22:).

All they need to do is to tweet the payout under the old RSS instead of forcing all to tikam or gamble with CPF Life which is not transparent (and I suspect too much buffer in the calculation of LIF resulting in lower payout for the start). With lower payout at 1330 for CPF Life, RA can last to 92 yo 10 months. If that's not good enough, lower the payout to 1200 and it will last till 99 yo 5 months. Still not good enough for longevity? Change payout to 1190 and it will last to age 100 :s13:
 

henrylbh

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Any excel expert?

In my post #34, I use formula "=IF(E561>60000,30000*$I$2/12,(E561-30000)*$I$2/12)" for the numbers in the last column. At certain point the numbers become negative. What should I add to return zero if negative? Thanks.
 

thekang

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Why digress to private annuity for comparison?

The point is whether there is a real need for CPF Life compared to the old retirement sum scheme with much higher payout lasting to age 82 (the last cohort under RSS is getting 1,240 for RA of 139,000 and the first cohort under CPFL is getting average of 1,081 for RA of 148,000 :s22:).

All they need to do is to tweet the payout under the old RSS instead of forcing all to tikam or gamble with CPF Life which is not transparent (and I suspect too much buffer in the calculation of LIF resulting in lower payout for the start). With lower payout at 1330 for CPF Life, RA can last to 92 yo 10 months. If that's not good enough, lower the payout to 1200 and it will last till 99 yo 5 months. Still not good enough for longevity? Change payout to 1190 and it will last to age 100 :s13:

There is a lot of buffer in the payout for CPF LIFE, my gut feeling is also that the government can pay slightly more.

But that is not an argument for RSS and against CPF LIFE. How do you decide how long the drawdown period for RSS should be? There is no right answer.
 
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