Newbie Guide: How to Find a Good Agent for Investment & Insurance?

LancelotDuLac

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What people need is simplicity. Your statements in caps just contain something sinister. Vested interest by blurring the lines. Oh well, it is rather unfortunate that the people who were driving a school bus blind folded are allowed to continue driving the school bus after it crashed and killed all the children on board.

What vested interest do I have?
I ain't no agent and I hardly do insurance in my line of work.
I do not earn a big fat commission from insurance.

You are just having what the chinese term as "xiao ren" mentality.

You dismiss ideas as toxic or lemon without understanding it. There are so many differnt products available in the modern market. Whilst some are truly highly complicated of which I also do not understand, there are still others which are useful.

The MING dynasty suffered from self-closure because they thought they knew everything. Always keep an open mind.

Learn and understand first before just dissing it.

I come here for an intellectual debate and open sharing, so keep an open heart without prejudice.

I have validated good points by Rommie2k6, do I not?
 

madnessguy

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After 483 posts, we will still see, hear & read the varying opinions of the different people.

To be frank, I think this thread has served its purpose "Newbie Guide: How to find a Good Agent for Investment & Insurance". Could the discussion be shifted to another thread?
 

LancelotDuLac

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I don't know. This thread has proven why my mother never trusted the insurance guys and my father looked after his own retirement with traditional products.

Being alive is just like buying car and having to drive it on the roads. Unlike being on the road where insurance is compulsory, though optional with life, life assurance is a necessary evil to be undertaken. The consequences of not taking a policy are dire should anything happen.

Then again, I can clearly remember the fine fvcking day that my car insurance broker used the same hogwash of extreme planning to cover my fully paid up car with comprehensive insurance when I insisted on 3rd party, fire and theft.

The same old adage my father told me applies today. Do not get insurance for things that you can afford to pay. The whole purpose of insurance is to provide financial aid when an event leaves you financially crippled. Nothing more, nothing less. It can never get simpler than that.

I know this idiotic psychological game you insurance guys play. It is so damn tempting to "insure" all the damn little things in life. This includes the bailing out of friends, relatives, parents from the evils of casinos. This idea that you don't want to feel like you are wasting insurance dollars, if you get my drift. Ah well, you do otherwise you wouldn't have mentioned this fear mongering idea. I am more likely to get a dented bumper or some package lost in the mail than having a fire lose my home or suffer a long term disability.

Well, the dented bumper costs me $500 and my lost package? Amazon can take care of it with the excellent customer support which I can't say the same for the insurance industry of Singapore. I'm still not happy going about to pay for the dented bumper though. Relatives who gambled and lost their money? NCPG will take care of them including a comprehensive plan to help them pay for their losses and provide counseling.

I take up life assurance not because I got silly idiot relatives gambling their money away. I cannot afford a financial catastrophe from my death so that life for my family can continue with the loss of my income.

Well, nobody forces you to do evil. Listening to your advice to "insure" against the folly of my own loved ones is just plain evil.

Like I said, I do not promote any particular method at all?
In which of my post did I advocate my way is THE WAY?

I merely stated my own preference, not saying it IS THE WAY TO GO.
I just highlighted possible scenarios, granted it is a remote possibility, however remote it may be. Can you or me SAY FOR SURE, it WILL OR WILL NOT HAPPEN?

Unless you are GOD Almighty, I seriously doubt anybody can say for sure.

Take a step back and think through in a calm and rational manner, rather than blitzing through and diss people off because of your pre-concieved notion/ mindset.

You are happy with BITR, go ahead. You are happy doing index funds, go ahead.

It's your life, it's your choice at the end of the day.

All I do is offer an alternative view on matters here, not to say my views are superior or anything. But the way you and Rommie2k6 have been spouting in this thread borders on arrogrance and Know-it-All, but all your takes come from pure academic viewpoints (which has it's inherent flaws) without infusing the realities of the world which is forever evolving.
 

LancelotDuLac

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Yes, exotic products that are lemon, untested and unproven and unstudied. Why would anyone bother with it?

Clarify on what you view as exotic products would be very helpful in the discussion as it would give greater clarity on the subject matter.

To genie47, what are your traditional products?

Times change, things change. Your Granparent's time saw F.D giving as much as 10% last time. What do F.Ds give you now?

In the 80s, we could see 7% F.D in SG still, what about now?

The only constant is change. When you are too entrenched in a particular mindset, you will be the one to suffer. Always keep an open mind to new ideas.
 

LancelotDuLac

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You'll have to back your claims up with evidence. Until then, your "most small retail investors following Graham's strategies can do better" song does not hold water.

I always find it amusing that people like to quote great people who support passive indexing in support for their case of active investments. If you re-read the latest edition of Graham's book, The Intelligent Investor, you would note that while he advocates a form of prudent actively managed investment aka "Enterprising Investor", he does recommend that the layman should be a "Defensive Investor".

In case you didn't know defensive investment strategy is passive investing in today's context. In one of the commentary it was mentioned if Graham had been born later in the 20th century, it is without question that he would have endorsed passive investing. (Note: 1st index fund only appeared in 1970s, Graham died in 1970s). Many of his principles enshrined in defensive investing IS passive investing.

PLUS, the book was written in the earlier 20th century, and the stock market back then was much simpler. Even S&P 500 had only 90 stocks at that time. I do not know how many stocks were on the US stock market, but it's definitely a magnitude less than what's on the exchange today! Analyzing companies were much easier in the past too. If you read the commentary of Graham's book, you will realize that doing his active form of investment today, where the situation is much more complicated it is practically not feasible for most people to adopt his strategies successfully. I guess except those who have no day job but spend their entire career on picking stocks.

So, at the end of the day, it is going to take ALOT of time and effort to executive Graham's strategies on the active "Enterprising investor", and in all likelihood you are going to fail. And even if you succeed, how much are you going to outperform? +2% p.a.? In exchange for how much time you sacrificed into this pet project of yours? Would you have sacrificed this time on things that are equally important to you (career, family)?

So your point was...?

EDIT: Btw... passive investors who subscribe to value investing can also invest in an index fund that invests in value-y companies, e.g. ETF for MSCI EAFE Value Index from iShares.

Happen to be more free today, hence reading some back pages of this highly interesting thread.

It seems you do acknowledge the fact that the market can be beaten but you attribute it to luck rather than skill due your pre-scribed notion of Efficient Market Hypothesis and non-conclusive academic evidence.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is imperfect due to behavioral finance aka sentiments which is my point that academic studies and results have to be taken in totality with discernment which I believe a person of your calibre and deep interest in finance should be more than able to comprehend.
 

LancelotDuLac

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Part 1. How to find a good agent: Spotting the good guys and avoiding the con-men


Today I was scrolling through a few threads and found that much of the "advice" come from a few insurance agents preying on gullible people here. So, I would like to share some general guidelines that people may find useful, especially those who are not that financially saavy. I also decided to include "doctor analogy", as I find the purpose of a financial adviser is to checkup your financial health and recommend the appropriate products (treatment). This may help newcomers understand things in terms that we are familiar with. I do not represent any insurance company and neither will I recommend any insurance company. I hope the mods can sticky this thread.

Starting from the worst:



Worst: Bank Staff (e.g. Relationship Managers)

To summarize - NEVER ever purchase any investment or insurance product based on a bank's recommendation!
Reasons:
1) Banks are notorious for hard selling, product churning, outright misrepresentation, etc... - I hope nobody has forgotten the miniBOMB (minibond) saga.
2) Banks relationship managers (or whatever they are called) have sales quota to meet - Your interest is NEVER in their eyes.
3) Banks will sell products that will make money for them first BEFORE the product makes money for you. Banks have been known to intentionally design products to profit from consumer loss.

By law, bank staff are now not allowed to sell investment products for people who come in to do basic transactions and did not explicitly requested for investment advice. This applies to fixed deposit too.

So, if you or your elderly parents ever go to the bank to apply for a FD, and the bank starts selling you some other stuff:
1) Tell them they are breaking the law
2) Don't believe what a single word they say (especially if they offer alternative recommendations)
3) If they persist, report to MAS, write to newspaper, etc... whatever

This is quite a hard line stance, but I think it is necessary. While I'm sure there may be responsible relationship managers out there, I think the probability of finding one is probably 0.01%.



Bad: Tied Agents or "Financial Advisers"

To summarize - One should never by products from a tied agent Yes, tied agents still make up the majority of agents and this may be offensive to the insurance agents and "financial planners" out there, but it's the truth.
Reasons:
1) Tied agents are trained to be salesperson 1st and financial adviser 2nd (if it all).
2) Tied agents are remunerated by commission and there is a conflict of interest between the agent earning money to feed his family vs agent responsibility in doing proper financial planning and recommending suitable products for his client. Many if not all tied agents will recommend you products that earn them the most commission and these products are usually the lousiest one for the consumer/client.
3) Tied agents are also usually pressed by upper management to sell more products to meet quota, much like bank staff.

While I do acknowledge that there may be some responsible tied agents out there, one other fact puts me off from transacting with them - they can only recommend products from their company. That by itself is a severe limitation. If you ever come across a tied agent who responsibly recommend products from other companies, you should advice him/her to join the IFA line where his ethical conduct may be put to greater use.

The only reasons why I will do business with a tied agent is because some companies do not partner with many IFAs (e.g. AIA, GE, Prudential) but such companies may have competitive products.

Doctor Analogy A tied agent is like a doctor that only prescribe and sell drugs from one drug company, and often the drug he/she prescribes is the most expensive one and may not necessarily be the most cost-effective medicine.



Fair: Independent Financial Advisers (IFA)

To summarize - All good financial advisers are IFA, but not all IFA are good financial advisers

One thing I learnt is that IFA does not instantly equals good financial adviser. Basically, I have classified IFA into a few categories.

Category 1 The Next Generation Salesperson
I admit, I have not met this type of IFA before. Nevertheless, I am listing down this "profile" as I am sure they exist. Probably "graduated" from a tied FA, this IFA is what I call the "next generation salesperson". He/she is still a salesperson at heart. Only difference is that instead of 10 products, he now have 100 products to sell!

Doctor Analogy This type of IFA is like a doctor who has the entire range of drug products. But he/she does not do a proper diagnosis of your health condition, and prescribe medicine that will earn him the most money, and the medicine may not be even relevant to the health condition!

Category 2 Wolf in the Sheep Skin
Very sadly, I have encountered this type of IFA, which I think is the most damaging out there. Unlike salesperson, whom a newbie can learn to identify quite quickly, this type of IFA will *appear* to be genuinely ethical but in reality they are not. They will usually do proper financial planning, but the product recommendation will be full of unnecessary high-expense, high-commission products.

Doctor Analogy This type of IFA is like a doctor who has the entire range of drug products. He/she does proper diagnosis and recommend the correct type of medication for your health condition. However, this doctor will prescribe the most expensive, which is also usually the least effective medicine, so that you will not be cured totally. Thus, you have to visit him again for more medicine, and he earns more money from you. In real life, I have encountered such doctors before, and I never visit them again once I learn of their unethical "business model".

Category 3 The Average IFA
I do hope the majority of IFA lies in this category, and in my opinion this is the minimum standard that consumer should aim for. This IFA will do proper financial planning and recommend appropriate products based on client needs. However, he/she will not source for the best product out there but will recommend something that is good enough.

Doctor Analogy This type of IFA is like a doctor who has the entire range of drug products. He/she does proper diagnosis and recommend the standard medication (neither super effective or terribly bad). Most family doctors in real life fall in this category.

Category 4 The Good IFA
Probably the minority of IFA out there, this IFA does everything properly from financial planning step to the implementation step. He/she places his clients interest before his own, and in many cases goes the extra mile at his/her expense.

Doctor Analogy This type of IFA is like a doctor who has the entire range of drug products, does proper diagnosis and recommend the most effective medication. In real life, I only know of one family doctor that is up to this standard.



So the biggest question know if that since we know Banks and Tied agents should be avoided at all cost. How do we distinguish the good IFA from the bad IFA? That's coming up next...


Category 1 The Next Generation Salesperson

Meeting the Next-Gen Salesperson IFA is going to be detrimental to your long term financial health. Not only does he/she does slipshod financial planning, his product recommendations is also equally bad. I think such salesperson is quite easily to identify even for newbies. Some tell tale signs:
1) Jumps straight into product recommendation without doing a proper cashflow analysis.
2) Missing out key parts in financial planning, such as (a) understanding your investment objectives, (b) understanding your background economic situation, (c) understanding your risk tolerance, (d) not drawing up an investment portfolio, etc...
3) "Neglecting" to mention important but low commission products, such as H&S Shield Plan.
4) In the sad scenario that you took him/her as your IFA, you'll notice that this type of IFA will contact you regularly to buy some latest products. "Regularly" here can be loosely defined as recommending a new product every quarter.

Category 2 Wolf in the Sheep Skin
Admittedly, this class of IFA will provide proper financial planning, so you will have stuff like H&S Shield plan unless you decline not to take it or are not insurable. Nevertheless, because this kind of IFA recommend expensive products, your returns over the long term will suffer. Also bear in mind for investments, every % count. A return of 4% vs 5% may seem the same, but over a 30 yr period, a $1000 sum becomes $3200 (for 4%) vs $4300 (for 5%). As you see even 1% returns over time can make a non-trivial difference to how much money you will have when you retire. Some telltale signs for this kind of IFAs:
1) Downplaying the importance of important but low commission products - e.g. Disability income insurance.
2) Recommend things like ILP and Endowments and even talks about the benefits of them.
3) Recommend Whole Life insurance over Term insurance.
4) Claiming that you should buy insurance to help you to save.

Category 3 The Average IFA
With the average IFA, more-or-less your financial health will be ok in the long term. However, because he does not really source for the products that is in the best interest of his clients, you may be missing out some returns in the long run. Some telltale signs for an average IFA:
1) Recommending Term insurance over Whole life insurance.
2) Recommending Unit Trust investment (and not ILP or Endowment).
3) Subscribes to a Buy-Term-and-Invest-the-Rest (BTIR) philosophy.

Controversy over Whole Life vs BTIR (Buy-Term-and-Invest-the-Rest) philosophy
Here is where some IFA will disagree, but my stand is that almost everyone should BTIR. Actually there is fundamentally no difference between BTIR and Whole Life - both approaches takes your money and split them into an insurance and investment part. The only difference is who manages the investment part. It's either you (or your IFA on your behalf) or the insurance company. Some IFAs may cite that Whole Life may be suitable for financially disinterested clients... but they forget the point when one buy Whole Life, he/she is implicitly outsourcing the investment part to the insurance company... so why not let your IFA do it for you? Another reason is that financially undisciplined clients may benefit from Whole Life as it forces them to save... again I say why don't just RSP into a portfolio managed by your IFA. It's the same thing...

Category 4 The Good IFA
This type of IFA is hard to find, primarily because the IFA may get to lose out in his commission earnings as some products might have no commissions. Some telltale signs of a good IFA:
1) Recommends H&S Shield Plan, Disability Insurance and Term with CI coverage - these are the most basic 3 insurance that everyone should have if it is within one's financial means.
2) Introduces the ideas of minimizing expense ratio for investments, passive (and not active) investment, talks about ETFs and index fund.
3) May use Unit Trust, but will select low expense, low turnover Unit Trust.
4) Discloses the commission he will earn from various products, and highlight any conflict-of-interest in his role as a financial adviser. - Seriously I'm not too sure if anyone does this, but before purchasing from an IFA I would ask for a full disclosure of his/her remuneration.
5) Talks about Estate Planning, an often neglected but important aspect of financial planning for those who have a next generation to consider.
6) Does not guarantee you a returns of a fixed % every year (note that saying you will likely get 5% returns till retirement vs saying you will guaranteed get 5% returns till retirement are two different statements btw).
7) Does not talk about >15% returns every year over a long period of time (simply put because no investment can do that).
8 ) Reminds you that past performance is not an indicator of future performance and tells you that fund performance ratings are basically bull****.
9) Does not talk too much about the current investment hype you are hearing all around you (now it is Gold, few years back it was China & India fund, and even before that it was Technology fund). Basically, if your IFA sounds like the today's economic news be very afraid.

Controversy over Passive (Index) vs Active Investment
No matter what financial gurus may tell you, including those big shot Wall Street con jobs (oh I meant Wall Street experts actually), it is an established fact that passive investment strategy will outperform active investment strategy over the long term (>20yrs). This is proven by over 20+ years of research. For anyone else who argues otherwise, it's bull****. In my opinion, this is a pretty black and white matter, and I don't believe there are many cases where active management may be better.

In my last post, I will cover my experience with the various IFA firms I have engaged so far. While I think the quality of IFA is probably not tied directly to the IFA firm, nevertheless I think it reflects on the IFA firm as a whole and should be included.

Whilst the bankers/RMs working in the banks have a sales quota to meet, they are in a less "threatened" position versus agents/IFAs who depend entirely on commissions.

The minibonds saga was a very very sad episode where majority of the bankers in my opinion were made the scapegoats as they were mislead by the bank in believing it was a safe product (again going back to my point on a huge majority of bankers are poor in knowledge)

On the part of "Banks will sell products that will make money for them first BEFORE the product makes money for you. Banks have been known to intentionally design products to profit from consumer loss."

Ypur latter statement is probably too strong in saying the bank intends to profit from consumer loss, but I can agree with you on the earlier part of it. Bank designed products will 99% ensure a profit for them.
 

Rommie2k6

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Let me first state that diversification is there for a reason. Most importantly, we diversify amongst different asset class that are driven by different fundamental reasons/mechanics and have historically low correlation. Another reason why we diversify is to reduce systemic risk. Therefore, one should not diversify for the sake of diversifying. Let us examine what you have suggested.

.....................

What about your money markets, fixed income, real estate, gold, commodities, resouces, energy, mining sectors? Just a few examples of how weak your suggested portfolio is constructed.

Your 30% bond portion, allocation into global bonds? emerging market bonds? High yield bonds?

It's easy to say diversification, much harder to do it.

Bear in mind the portfolio I have created is a simple one meant for people who are starting out. It however should provide "enough" diversification. To address specific points raised:
1) Money market is cash equivalent... cash have no place in a portfolio.
2) Fixed income is the bond fund... did you miss it?
3) Real estate in the form of REITs... yes it has been shown that it is a good class to diversify. However, I would not consider it a "core" asset class... something good to have but not necessary. This is why I left it out.
4) Gold/commodities is a grey area. First, there are conflicting studies on whether or not such asset class makes a good diversifier. Traditionally, they have had low correlation with other asset class, but in recent years that has not been the case due to speculators driving the commodity market. Secondly, the contango problems has made it impossible to invest in this asset class properly, because spot price cannot be tracked well. If you are familar with such things, then you will understand. Thus, I am ambivalent to this asset.
5) Resource/Energy/Mining and other specific sectors, will be covered in a broad market index fund.
6) I am ambivalent to global bonds because there is the FX risk. The purpose of bonds is steady returns, why take on additional FX risk? We are not sure if the interest premium of global bonds will pay off in the long term vs local bonds. Again, it is a "good to have" but not a "core" asset class.
7) Emerging and High-Yield bonds, also known as junk bonds to me have no place in asset allocation. They may have higher yields but have equity like performance. So they are neither behave like normal bonds or stocks... not here nor there. What purpose would they serve in a portfolio?
 

Rommie2k6

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And going back to the WL saga, as I've said, one can never predict the future, there is always a posibility of a certain event requiring to use your entire liquid holdings, hence wiping you clean. Even if I have to pay back with interest, at least for the time being I can be covered for 100k, rather than without?

There can be so many examples, your parents in retirement decide to visit the casinos and get addicted until they loan and loan until the sum snowballs, a child who gets into trouble with the law- expensive lawyer fees blah blah blah.

Can you say it WILL NEVER HAPPEN? The truth is no, hence I say. Rather than going for extreme planning, it is better to plan covering different angles, it is more prudent.

Such events are unlikely to happen, and in my personal opinion one cannot plan 100% for everything. Planning for 95% of the possible outcomes is good enough, and trying to address the cases with a 5% likelihood is stupid. If you adopt such kind of kiasee mentality then perhaps you should convert all your assets to gold in case there is WW3.

Back to your scenario, how does holding WL policy makes it better than pure Term? If you need to liquidate a large sum of cash for whatever reason, you can also surrender your WL policy for cash value, just as a BTIR person can liquidate his ITR assets.

So what is your point? In both methods, if needed a large sum of cash can be liquidated, but did you know that you lose A LOT OF MONEY when you surrender a WL policy???
 

Rommie2k6

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Let me ask you this question, do you even understand how the product works? While it may sound exotic to you perhaps due to lack of exposure? If there is no academic research done on it, means that it is bad i.e a lemon product? You speak and write as if you know alot but only from academic viewpoints.

Exotic means complicated products and/or does not fall into traditional categories like money market, fixed income (bonds) and stocks. REITs and commodity can be considered as non-exotic too.

If there is no research or study done on it then YES it is a lousy product. Why should I try something that is untested?

Refute my point on the part on how research is being conducted, how studies and results were conceived? Study more in depth of what you have read, was I wrong to say they use assumptions BASED on averages. This is always how academic research is being conducted.

Don't try to hand wave your way through here. The onus is on you to prove that established research is wrong (good luck with that).

Eons ago, academics all thought that Earth was flat and the centre of the universe. And everyone just believed it as the gospel truth because everyone said so. But now we know, earth is not flat and definately not the centre of the universe.

Expand your mind to accomodate new ideas, new thoughts.

Strawman argument. The process of economic science is self-correcting yes, but it does invalidate current work established. If one day sufficient study and evidence can prove that a certain type of active management strategy works... yes then I will recommend it. But the current state of affairs is that there is NONE.
 

Rommie2k6

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You cannot conclusively tell if it was luck or skill, so you determine it cannot be done?

I did not say it cannot be done. To be precise, the common person has a very small chance to be able to chose a fund manager (or be his own "fund manager" who will consistently outperform the market for a long time horizon. Combined that with a portfolio of funds, the odds of a portfolio of funds beating the index is also zero when extended over one's working period.

Like I said, I do not need to beat the market ALL the time. I just need to do better for 70% of the portfolio aka MOST of the time.

I never said that you need to beat the market 100% of the time. I do believe some study back said you need to predict bull and bears 70-80% of the time to win the index, so you are correct. However, the likelihood of underperformance is much greater than overperformance. Also, the gains from overperformance (e.g. +1% p.a.) is much less than the loss of underperformance (e.g. -3% p.a.).

And as I've said before, the decades of research are based in the PAST, it is a different world and research is over-rated in some sense.

Then why the need to crunch numbers? analysis? Just do as what you advocate, let's just buy index funds and be done with it since it's so idiot proof.

No need for CFAs or CHfc or whatever there is. Investment is so easy peasy :s22:

For some simple proof as requested. Read below for an analytical piece by Fundsupermart.

http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?articleNo=4809

Dear Rommie2k6 will then go on to say about his Past Winners today will be tommorrow's losers.

Loosen up and be more accomodating of ideas and concepts than just be entrenched in your small world. You behave like those of what history has taught us, remember my analogy of the FLAT EARTH.

The article is completely pathetic and full of bull-****. They have just shown an 8-year period of outperformance. BIG ***** DEAL!!! They have been mutual funds in the US that outperform for a period of 20-30 years!!! Statistically speaking the odds of a fund outperforming the index in any 10-year period is about 20-30%. I am not surprised they have found one.

Investment gurus like yourself have been losing to the market back in the 1950s and they are losing to the market now in the 2010s. YES, INVESTING THROUGH INDEX FUND IS THAT EASY. Anyone who claims otherwise is 99% lying, unless that person can back up his statements with tons of evidence.

And if you have nothing else to say... please do not resort to irrelevant strawman attacks on the self-correcting nature of science. It just shows that you have run out of statements.
 

Rommie2k6

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You dismiss ideas as toxic or lemon without understanding it. There are so many differnt products available in the modern market. Whilst some are truly highly complicated of which I also do not understand, there are still others which are useful.

The MING dynasty suffered from self-closure because they thought they knew everything. Always keep an open mind.

Learn and understand first before just dissing it.

I come here for an intellectual debate and open sharing, so keep an open heart without prejudice.

I have validated good points by Rommie2k6, do I not?

Actually, the best thing to do in investments about exotic products is to dismiss them. Why? Cause the common person will not have time to do his own research, and if it is really that good, sooner or latter it will be validated by the academic community.

Your first posts was pretty OK, but I am afraid the latter posts have degenerated in a bunch of strawman attacks and the fallacies of being "open-minded". You seem to have a problem about the studies done on investment, but you resort to hand waving arguments without addressing anything specific.

Times change, things change. Your Granparent's time saw F.D giving as much as 10% last time. What do F.Ds give you now?

In the 80s, we could see 7% F.D in SG still, what about now?

Actually, times change but many things in investment still remain the same. The 1980s were a period of high inflation with local stocks returning double digit annualized returns. If you compare the real returns (that account for inflation), you will find that FD and SG stocks will yield around the same real returns in the 1980s and today.
 

Rommie2k6

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It seems you do acknowledge the fact that the market can be beaten but you attribute it to luck rather than skill due your pre-scribed notion of Efficient Market Hypothesis and non-conclusive academic evidence.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis is imperfect due to behavioral finance aka sentiments which is my point that academic studies and results have to be taken in totality with discernment which I believe a person of your calibre and deep interest in finance should be more than able to comprehend.

I won't be debating the validity of EMH with you, but the thing about index fund is that it is still a superior choice in a completely efficient market and a completely inefficient market. Confused???

I'm sure the arguments for a completely efficient market you probably know about. But what about the reverse argument which I guess is what you are trying to make.

See this link:
http://www.investingforcatholics.co...r_Passive_Investing_by_Dr_Steven_Thorley.aspx

Or just the conclusion for the rest:
If prices in the stock market are not efficient and investing is a skill-based game, then low-skilled investors will consistently lose to players with a competitive advantage. If, on the other hand, you assume that the market is perfectly efficient, then the less-skilled players have the same one-in-three chance of beating the index as everyone else. Market efficiency protects the less-skilled players from routinely making bad investments. There is, however, no such protection in an inefficient market, and so the active investing majority that underperforms the index will tend to be the same every year. The argument for indexing is even stronger for most investors if the stock market is not efficient. About two-thirds of all active investors, whose only financial justification for being active is beating the index, must fail in that objective each year. The two-thirds failure rate is as mathematically certain as the forecast that exactly half of the workforce will earn less than the median income. Each active investor should therefore confront both the question: Am I in the top third of everyone who thinks they are? And the unavoidable answer: Probably not.

And so to address the question posed, the common man DOES not have the time or the resources or the training or the knowledge to go head-to-head against a full time institutional investment fund manager, and neither will he have the capacity to pick a fund manager that have such qualities (not to mention that fund managers do change in the 30-40 year horizon... then what?)
 

Rommie2k6

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After 483 posts, we will still see, hear & read the varying opinions of the different people.

To be frank, I think this thread has served its purpose "Newbie Guide: How to find a Good Agent for Investment & Insurance". Could the discussion be shifted to another thread?

I think for those who are still following this thread will benefit from the discussion. We see the many counter-arguments from the other side and they make for a good learning experience.
 

Rommie2k6

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Since our new banker friend has brought in FSM, I cannot help but to take potshots at FSM and their sloppy and biased research. I hope readers note the conflict of interest of FSM which sells actively-managed UT to churn out "research" that says buy my stuff.

From:
http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?articleNo=4807

Conclusion:
While that may be true to a certain extent, it also means that the remaining 20% of the actively managed funds (our analysis supports this argument) have been able to consistently outperform their benchmark. The question will then fall on how to identify these funds which will add value to an investor’s portfolio. With a lower opportunity cost (sales charges falling over the years), investors may actually want to consider UT over ETF if they intend to hold for a long period. Our recommended Singapore equity fund, Aberdeen Select Portfolio – Singapore Equity Fund, has been consistently outperforming the general market over the last 5 years.

Sounds reasonable ya? Note that it is ONLY A 5-YEAR PERIOD.

Now see: http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/irrational-investor/the-power-of-passive-investing/2660/

The odds of a single fund beating the index aren’t so bad
Beating the broad low cost index fund has proven to be a difficult task. In fact, it’s much more difficult than beating the Wall Street Illusions of besting the S&P 500 index, stripped of dividends. Ferri condenses the wealth of academic research to show that roughly 42 percent of active funds beat their benchmark index fund over any given year. The odds drop to about 23% over a ten year period (which is incidentally similar to FSM findings that ~20% of funds beat the index in their 5-yr study).


The odds of a portfolio beating an index are dismal
In his book, Ferri points out that few investors own only one fund. He quotes some academic research, including a study from yours truly, that frame the odds of multiple funds beating index funds over a period of years. The odds of a 10 fund active portfolio beating the index over a 25 year period drop to less than one percent or, in other words, has a 99 percent chance of failure.






It's really amazing how some companies can twist the truth for their own selfish purposes. Self-education is always the best solution to prevent yourself to get conned.
 

LancelotDuLac

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Let me first state that diversification is there for a reason. Most importantly, we diversify amongst different asset class that are driven by different fundamental reasons/mechanics and have historically low correlation. Another reason why we diversify is to reduce systemic risk. Therefore, one should not diversify for the sake of diversifying. Let us examine what you have suggested.



Bear in mind the portfolio I have created is a simple one meant for people who are starting out. It however should provide "enough" diversification. To address specific points raised:
1) Money market is cash equivalent... cash have no place in a portfolio.
2) Fixed income is the bond fund... did you miss it?
3) Real estate in the form of REITs... yes it has been shown that it is a good class to diversify. However, I would not consider it a "core" asset class... something good to have but not necessary. This is why I left it out.
4) Gold/commodities is a grey area. First, there are conflicting studies on whether or not such asset class makes a good diversifier. Traditionally, they have had low correlation with other asset class, but in recent years that has not been the case due to speculators driving the commodity market. Secondly, the contango problems has made it impossible to invest in this asset class properly, because spot price cannot be tracked well. If you are familar with such things, then you will understand. Thus, I am ambivalent to this asset.
5) Resource/Energy/Mining and other specific sectors, will be covered in a broad market index fund.
6) I am ambivalent to global bonds because there is the FX risk. The purpose of bonds is steady returns, why take on additional FX risk? We are not sure if the interest premium of global bonds will pay off in the long term vs local bonds. Again, it is a "good to have" but not a "core" asset class.
7) Emerging and High-Yield bonds, also known as junk bonds to me have no place in asset allocation. They may have higher yields but have equity like performance. So they are neither behave like normal bonds or stocks... not here nor there. What purpose would they serve in a portfolio?

1) Money market is cash equivalent... cash have no place in a portfolio.

when we talk about portfolio management, we do it in its entirety aka looking at all the different assest classes. Your protection assest (aka Term or WL) is considered part of portfolio. It is not just your investment tools that is your portfolio

2) Fixed income is the bond fund... did you miss it?

Read below

3) Real estate in the form of REITs... yes it has been shown that it is a good class to diversify. However, I would not consider it a "core" asset class... something good to have but not necessary. This is why I left it out.

Real Estate may not be just in the form of REITs but also in a real assest form of physical real estate, resulting in passive income. Why leave it out when it serves to augment the portfolio?

4) Gold/commodities is a grey area. First, there are conflicting studies on whether or not such asset class makes a good diversifier. Traditionally, they have had low correlation with other asset class, but in recent years that has not been the case due to speculators driving the commodity market. Secondly, the contango problems has made it impossible to invest in this asset class properly, because spot price cannot be tracked well. If you are familar with such things, then you will understand. Thus, I am ambivalent to this asset.

With the gold rush in the last 3-5 years, I agree with you that gold is rather speculative rather than a real demand. However as a real assest, Gold will serve to be a good asset class in the long run, since we are talking about a long-term portfolio, aren't we?

5) Resource/Energy/Mining and other specific sectors, will be covered in a broad market index fund.

I have a differing opinion on this due to cyclical demands but I guess it can be a fair enough conclusion.

6) I am ambivalent to global bonds because there is the FX risk. The purpose of bonds is steady returns, why take on additional FX risk? We are not sure if the interest premium of global bonds will pay off in the long term vs local bonds. Again, it is a "good to have" but not a "core" asset class.
7) Emerging and High-Yield bonds, also known as junk bonds to me have no place in asset allocation. They may have higher yields but have equity like performance. So they are neither behave like normal bonds or stocks... not here nor there. What purpose would they serve in a portfolio?[/

Well your emerging bonds in recent years have seen a similar defaut risk as your investment grade bonds but however giving a much better yield due to the increased stability which shows my point that investment is something that continually evolves and needs adaptation.

Why is there no academic research to show for it now is because academics are often behind the curve. Why I have no sure-fire way to prove what I say. History has shown time and again that academic research is not the Gospel truth.

If passive investing is the BEST method, then why the continual debate about it versus active investing in the academic front as well? Reason is that THERE IS ALSO NO CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO PROVE that one is more superior than the other.

If given a fact that one with LITTLE TIME, inability to digest vast information, YES then I agree with you that by investing into index funds is probably a much better choice. It gives you the BEST average returns BUT that doesn't mean active investing is inferior.

As you have admitted as well, there ARE funds/people/managers who CONSISTENTLY BEAT the index OVER AN EXTENDED TIME. You are merely in your comfort zone because you FEEL SINCE THERE IS NO CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE/PROOF, I shall stick to index. Pretty much of your kiasee mentality as well? No?
 

LancelotDuLac

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Exotic means complicated products and/or does not fall into traditional categories like money market, fixed income (bonds) and stocks. REITs and commodity can be considered as non-exotic too.

If there is no research or study done on it then YES it is a lousy product. Why should I try something that is untested?



Don't try to hand wave your way through here. The onus is on you to prove that established research is wrong (good luck with that).



Strawman argument. The process of economic science is self-correcting yes, but it does invalidate current work established. If one day sufficient study and evidence can prove that a certain type of active management strategy works... yes then I will recommend it. But the current state of affairs is that there is NONE.

That's my point, you simply dismiss a new concept because
1) it's new
2) no academic research done on it

Hence it's deemed as useless? Doesn't your kiasee mentality reflect here as well?

I'm waving my hand around? More like you are the one. It is an ESTABLISHED FACT that ACADEMIC RESEARCH is based by using AVERAGES for their hypothesis testing. No academic conclusion is done based on comparision with the upper tail distribution aka top 5% because like you have spouted time and again, the academics dismiss the fact of LONG-TERM better performance than market as irrelevant due to inability of being able to decide whether it is luck or skill. It's again a human mental block problem.

Like you have also admitted as well, THERE ARE tools and people who CAN BEAT the market.

Hence my very initial points about whether relating to insurance or investing, no such thing as a BEST method but rather how it can cater to a particular individual.
 

LancelotDuLac

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I did not say it cannot be done. To be precise, the common person has a very small chance to be able to chose a fund manager (or be his own "fund manager" who will consistently outperform the market for a long time horizon. Combined that with a portfolio of funds, the odds of a portfolio of funds beating the index is also zero when extended over one's working period.



I never said that you need to beat the market 100% of the time. I do believe some study back said you need to predict bull and bears 70-80% of the time to win the index, so you are correct. However, the likelihood of underperformance is much greater than overperformance. Also, the gains from overperformance (e.g. +1% p.a.) is much less than the loss of underperformance (e.g. -3% p.a.).



The article is completely pathetic and full of bull-****. They have just shown an 8-year period of outperformance. BIG ***** DEAL!!! They have been mutual funds in the US that outperform for a period of 20-30 years!!! Statistically speaking the odds of a fund outperforming the index in any 10-year period is about 20-30%. I am not surprised they have found one.

Investment gurus like yourself have been losing to the market back in the 1950s and they are losing to the market now in the 2010s. YES, INVESTING THROUGH INDEX FUND IS THAT EASY. Anyone who claims otherwise is 99% lying, unless that person can back up his statements with tons of evidence.

And if you have nothing else to say... please do not resort to irrelevant strawman attacks on the self-correcting nature of science. It just shows that you have run out of statements.

Thanks for affirming the fact that there are funds that outperforms for a 20-30 year period, again illustrating my point of the EXISTENCE of out-performance in the long run. I thought a Singapore related topic would be easier for the general readers to digest.

Throwing the ball to your court of strawman arguements, evidence of investment gurus losing to the market since the 1950s? I'm pretty confused by your rock-and-fro now. So it's all losers? But then again you admitted there were out-performers? Hmm, so interesting.

There are always winners and losers be it in anything in life. Winners are few and losers are many.

You can choose to be average or better than average
You can choose to be top
You can choose to be well loser?

Why are the top the top? It is proven that the top people do not get there by luck. This applies to everything in life, be it in investment, work, studies etc......
 
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LancelotDuLac

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I think for those who are still following this thread will benefit from the discussion. We see the many counter-arguments from the other side and they make for a good learning experience.

Open sharing without prejudice is how one improves.
New financial literature is being researched on continously, which is why i bring forward my points of keeping an open mind.

In case you are wondering, I do not dismiss passive investing as inferior to active investing but I just cannot stand the fact that you advocate PASSIVE investing as the BEST/SUPERIOR method because academic conclusions have no clear verdict as well. (since you seem to be a great believer in academic conclusions)
 

genie47

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1) Money market is cash equivalent... cash have no place in a portfolio.

This already sealed you as the same kind of demon that drove the school bus blindfolded and crashed it. :s13:

I can see you like any of the FPs or any of these F-ilk keep harping on. Chasing after yields. Away demon!
 

LancelotDuLac

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This already sealed you as the same kind of demon that drove the school bus blindfolded and crashed it. :s13:

I can see you like any of the FPs or any of these F-ilk keep harping on. Chasing after yields. Away demon!

Genie47, read properly on who said that cash has no place in a portfolio.:look:
Let me first state that diversification is there for a reason. Most importantly, we diversify amongst different asset class that are driven by different fundamental reasons/mechanics and have historically low correlation. Another reason why we diversify is to reduce systemic risk. Therefore, one should not diversify for the sake of diversifying. Let us examine what you have suggested.



Bear in mind the portfolio I have created is a simple one meant for people who are starting out. It however should provide "enough" diversification. To address specific points raised:
1) Money market is cash equivalent... cash have no place in a portfolio.2) Fixed income is the bond fund... did you miss it?
3) Real estate in the form of REITs... yes it has been shown that it is a good class to diversify. However, I would not consider it a "core" asset class... something good to have but not necessary. This is why I left it out.
4) Gold/commodities is a grey area. First, there are conflicting studies on whether or not such asset class makes a good diversifier. Traditionally, they have had low correlation with other asset class, but in recent years that has not been the case due to speculators driving the commodity market. Secondly, the contango problems has made it impossible to invest in this asset class properly, because spot price cannot be tracked well. If you are familar with such things, then you will understand. Thus, I am ambivalent to this asset.
5) Resource/Energy/Mining and other specific sectors, will be covered in a broad market index fund.
6) I am ambivalent to global bonds because there is the FX risk. The purpose of bonds is steady returns, why take on additional FX risk? We are not sure if the interest premium of global bonds will pay off in the long term vs local bonds. Again, it is a "good to have" but not a "core" asset class.
7) Emerging and High-Yield bonds, also known as junk bonds to me have no place in asset allocation. They may have higher yields but have equity like performance. So they are neither behave like normal bonds or stocks... not here nor there. What purpose would they serve in a portfolio?

So who's your demon now?

Cash is also considered as an asset class in a portfolio.
 
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