*Official* BBCWatcher club

[lousylah]

anyone buying US TIPS? real yields look attractive if held to maturity

Avoid bond/income funds! Most have been performing poorly in recent yrs and likely continue in the coming quarters.

You sure to have read the headlines on decades high record bond yields across the world > those are NOT good indicators.

it is different if you can be the primary holder of said bonds and HTM as you mentioned - like our tbills, SGS, SSB biddings with MAS. I have not done much research but i dont think regular joes in singapore can easily bid and hold TIPS or USTs directly > maybe if you are accredited investor (AI) and have access to a wealth manager?

 

[lousylah]

Do explore physical ownership. Many bullion stores now in sg - investment precious metal (IPM) are gst-exempt. You can take your time to read up on it > or have your favourite LLM summarise for you!

beyond that you may consider metals-back funds in different jurisdictions. Here in sg we have the relatively new lion global gold fund (the metals are held near changi airport) > various different channels to purchase.

the debasement trade has valid grounds for serious consideration for long term investors. Many articles on it online and financial media, even our “reputable” straits times. DYDD and develop your own convictions on it > some posters will “debunk”, some posters will support but its your hard-earned $$ and your own financial goals at stake.

instead of GLD, how do we safeguard buying and holding paper gold from governments?

as i recall, USA at one point in history banned holding of gold by its citizens

which listing is safer? Im on the fence on gold stored in Singapore because a few missles and the gold can be taken or breached

Anti debasement trade. Protect portfolio from printing of money due to war, debt, geopolitical uncertainty

 

[BBCWatcher]

Avoid bond/income funds! Most have been performing poorly in recent yrs and likely continue in the coming quarters.

Leaving aside whether your counsel is wise or not, who are you responding to? @rubicon literally wrote "if held to maturity." It wasn't a question about any funds.

As it happens, bonds are broadly cheaper now than they were in the recent past. Why should a prospective buyer be less inclined to buy something when the price is lower? Are you arguing for a "buy high, sell low" strategy?

I have not done much research but i dont think regular joes in singapore can easily bid and hold TIPS or USTs directly > maybe if you are accredited investor (AI) and have access to a wealth manager?

Yes, "regular joes in singapore" really can. Just keep reading the following post(s). U.S. Treasuries are available in US$1,000 face value increments, they're very easy to buy and hold, and you don't need to be an accredited investor. You can buy them with a few clicks or taps on your PC, Mac, or tablet, or smartphone via Interactive Brokers or Moomoo, as examples.

Do explore physical ownership.

That poster expressed concerns about the risk of governments and others seizing gold. Why would he/she want to do what you suggest when he's/she's stated his/her concerns so clearly?

 

[lousylah]

Yes, "regular joes in singapore" really can. Just keep reading the following post(s). U.S. Treasuries are available in US$1,000 face value increments, they're very easy to buy and hold, and you don't need to be an accredited investor. You can buy them with a few clicks or taps on your PC, Mac, or tablet, or smartphone via Interactive Brokers or Moomoo, as examples.

genuinely useful info that. thanks BBC

Leaving aside whether your counsel is wise or not, who are you responding to? @rubicon literally wrote "if held to maturity." It wasn't a question about any funds.

As it happens, bonds are broadly cheaper now than they were in the recent past. Why should a prospective buyer be less inclined to buy something when the price is lower? Are you arguing for a "buy high, sell low" strategy?

as crazy as it may now sound, climb in yields are probably nowhere near done > so yes, "buy high, sell low" is what you might be suggesting to anyone buying into bonds now (if they do not HTM). we will look back on our little exchange here in a few months (probably 2027) and we might snigger at "5% for 10yr USTs?"

and by the same token, this is where the "debasement" rhetoric will again creep its head > global debt (sovereign and corporate) continues to be out-of-control and inflationary thereby eroding the value of every dollar held thus merit thought and consideration for any long term investor.

As i am typing this, the current financial news is on a record jumbo junk bond issuance related to the AI arms race (DC buildout particularly) priced at nearly 10% p.a. for 7.5yrs maturity (!!) > there will invariably be knock-on effect on the overall global debt market (corporate and sovereign).

That poster expressed concerns about the risk of governments and others seizing gold. Why would he/she want to do what you suggest when he's/she's stated his/her concerns so clearly?

i do not think you are understanding the risk(s) fully :
paper/digital claims via GLD or equivalent can be frozen/seized in an instant whereas physical ownership stored/vaulted in mixture of jurisdictions can help spread that risk. in this respect physical trumps digital/paper thus my suggestion.

 

[rubicon]

if you expect inflation to be higher than breakeven you should buy real yields. the risk is real yields going higher but I expect the Treasury to be buying up longer dated even more Operation Twist Redux

 

[lousylah]

if you expect inflation to be higher than breakeven you should buy real yields. the risk is real yields going higher but I expect the Treasury to be buying up longer dated even more Operation Twist Redux

Yeap, there you go.

focus on the shorter-end then. 1yr bills, 2-3yr notes. 5yr if you are adventurous and nothing further.

if you want to act all sexy bond trader then you can straddle, steepener, etc

 

[Euqorab]

Apple has effectively cut the price of their Apple TV streaming service to S$1.48 per month (equivalent to S$17.76 per year), effective later this month (September, 2026). For those of you looking to cut your home entertainment costs, it's a good option.

where do you see this? im still seeing $13.XX per month?

Should be take time to kick in

I linked to Apple's own press release. Apple says they'll make these changes later this month (September, 2026).

I just got it today already!
can share with family also too

 

[BBCWatcher]

paper/digital claims via GLD or equivalent can be frozen/seized in an instant whereas physical ownership stored/vaulted in mixture of jurisdictions can help spread that risk.

Spreading the risk across jurisdictions is easier with gold funds, not harder. Many funds already do that within a single fund. They own gold stored in vaults in various countries. It's also possible to invest in the stocks of metal mining companies spread across various jurisdictions, either individually or in fund form. The U.S. government (for example) never made private ownership of gold mining stocks illegal.

if you expect inflation to be higher than breakeven you should buy real yields. the risk is real yields going higher but I expect the Treasury to be buying up longer dated even more Operation Twist Redux

Do you mean real return (a.k.a. inflation-indexed) bonds? Nominal return bonds also produce real yields, but they don't promise any particular real yield. Their real yields could even end up negative.

focus on the shorter-end then. 1yr bills, 2-3yr notes. 5yr if you are adventurous and nothing further.
if you want to act all sexy bond trader then you can straddle, steepener, etc

OK, so you're advising that people try to time bond markets. Which some people tried to do in the last interest rate cycle. Many got burned as they were holding maturing short-term T-bills and emerged into a low yield/high bond price world. Predictable and predicted.

What bottom of the bond market (the low in bond prices) are you predicting?

....Or a long-term investor who wants a certain portfolio allocation to bonds could simply dollar cost average over long periods and maintain their target allocations, rebalancing occasionally. As their investments including their bonds fluctuate in price, they'll tend to buy more at lower prices and less/fewer at higher prices. Then there are real return (inflation-indexed) bonds available from several governments in several currencies. If you simply want a real return over a particular time period, there you go.

 

[BBCWatcher]

As you consider how much to fund your CPF Retirement Account (which then feeds into your CPF LIFE pension) you might wish to consider the experiences of other retired people in other countries.

Many American retirees often rely solely or primarily on U.S. Social Security retirement income. They routinely and vocally complain about how difficult it is to live on Social Security. According to the Pension Rights Center, in 2024 the median Social Security retirement benefit was about US$1,710 per month (2024 U.S. dollars), currently equivalent to about S$2,185 per month. Social Security payouts are adjusted annually for inflation with a "hold harmless" provision (no decrease in deflationary periods).

For comparison, if you celebrate your 55th birthday in 2026, fund your CPF RA to the Full Retirement Sum (S$220,400), and don't make any RA withdrawals, you should receive a CPF LIFE Standard Plan payout of S$1,780 per month (2036 Singapore dollars) from age 65. That 2036 payout is about S$400 below the median U.S. benefit from 2024, and with no inflation adjustments. That's a lot lower!

Are American retirees wrong? Is the median retiree's Social Security benefit too lavish, too luxurious? I seriously doubt it! You might have a different idea about how much foundational lifetime real retirement income you ought to nail down. However, if your first planning instinct is to reduce your RA below the Full Retirement Sum, I'm likely to question your financial acumen. Maybe, once you actually reach age 58 (as an example), and a qualified doctor says you have only 2 years left to live, OK, spend some RA dollars if you want. That makes sense. Otherwise, when you make a reasonable retirement financial plan, you'd much rather have "too much" pension income than too little. And CPF doesn't really allow you to have too much pension income because there's an Enhanced Retirement Sum limit.

If you really want to try to justify why American retirees need more pension income than similarly situated Singaporeans need, consider these facts: on average they pay less for electricity, less for food at home, less for unreimbursed acute elder healthcare and prescription drugs, less for medical insurance premiums (in middle to high retired ages anyway), and less for housing. On average they have less longevity risk (they don't live as long as Singaporeans), and on average they have more chlidren and grandchildren (who might financially support them).

Don't fool around with this one! Simply nail down at least a decent pension, and also for your spouse/partner. The government has a great deal on offer.

 

[BBCWatcher]

I'm a little late to the Brookings Institute's "Financing the AI Buildout" paper (echoed in The Wall Street Journal), but I'd like to offer some comments.

The paper's author forecasts AI and data center build out spending from 2025 to 2032 of US$10.3 trillion total, an average of 3.63% of gross U.S. GDP per year. If that amount of spending actually occurs it'd be a bigger infrastructure investment as a share of U.S. GDP than U.S. canal construction (1836-1841), railroads (1870-1890), electrification (1905-1925), highways (1956-1973), and telecom/fiber (1993-2003). And it's not even close; the biggest of these was the rail build out at an average of 2.24% of U.S. GDP per year.

Some reactions:

1. Forecasts of this sort are difficult.
2. Two of these historically large build outs (railroads and telecom/fiber) contributed to widespread bankruptcies and associated stock market crashes. The railroad boom alone triggered two crashes: the Panics of 1873 and 1893. Of course the telecom/fiber boom triggered the 2000-2002 "Dot-Com" Crash.
3. Much of this AI infrastructure will depreciate much more quickly than railroads, fiber lines, canals, and highways. The U.S. still enjoys economic returns on 100+ year old canals and rail lines. (Amtrak for example just completed major repairs on one of the East River Tunnels in New York and is now starting work on the second. Those rail tunnels opened in 1910.) In contrast, I think we can safely assume that the NVIDIA GPUs Oracle installs today won't generate any economic returns whatsoever after only a few years in service. That is, much of the forecast US$10.3 trillion more closely resembles operating expense rather than capital expense.

Caveats aside, this build out is crazy big and probably too crazy. Maybe the new AI models and technologies will be wonderful, much like railroads were (and still are) wonderful. But it also seems likely many AI funders (like many railroad barrons of the past) will end up making donations in exchange for worthless stock certificates and IOUs. Stock markets eventually correct and even occasionally crash.

I suggest that you avoid trying to forecast which sector(s) will do better than others.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Following up on my previous post about U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), at this instant Bloomberg is quoting a 2.825% real yield on the 10 year TIPS and a fairly astonishing 3.24% on the 20 year. From what I can tell these TIPS yields are the highest since 2002. Wow.

In other news, AAA reports that U.S. diesel fuel prices have eased by about 4 pennies per U.S. gallon since their September 22 all-time nominal high (very close to a real high as well). There are media reports the Trump Administration is considering a 90-day ban on diesel fuel exports. Industry analysts widely pan the idea since it's likely to spike gasoline (petrol) prices due to the way refineries and fuel markets work, or don't work. Although I suppose if you want to make more American voters more angry, boosting gasoline prices would do it.

 

[rubicon]

problem is those yields keep going up...haven't managed to bite the bullet yet