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Nesplex

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@BBCWatcher , if one intends to change from using CPF to cash for his monthly mortgage payment for his remaining bank mortgage loan, would it be better to just pay the bank directly using cash or top up the cash into OA every month as a housing refund and continue paying from OA?
 

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This has surely been asked multiple times. What is BBC's single ETF recommendation? SWRD / VWRA ?
I don't have a single fund recommendation, but for a low cost global stock index fund for a person who doesn't have a tax impediment (for most non-U.S. persons) you can take your pick of VWRA, ISAC, or SWRD. They're all great. Just pick one. If your cat is named Isaac then maybe pick ISAC, for example. It doesn't matter.
@BBCWatcher , if one intends to change from using CPF to cash for his monthly mortgage payment for his remaining bank mortgage loan, would it be better to just pay the bank directly using cash or top up the cash into OA every month as a housing refund and continue paying from OA?
You can already pay the bank directly, so I have no idea why you'd "burn down" your own ability to inject funds into a 2.5% interest bearing account. Right now that's not an appealing option, but in the future it might be again. So why destroy or diminish a future option?

...But why do you want to switch from OA to cash to pay your mortgage? The current interest rate environment is pushing a lot of people in the other direction, quite sensibly so.
 

Listopad

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Would like some thoughts on this. For CPF OA, would one choose to vest in MBH (weighted avg ytm ~ 4.7%) or 6month Tbills instead ?
 

BBCWatcher

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Would like some thoughts on this. For CPF OA, would one choose to vest in MBH (weighted avg ytm ~ 4.7%) or 6month Tbills instead ?
MBH principal is not guarantee
Right, so it depends on the time horizon and investment objectives. Both fit into the “bonds” category, but MBH is a long-term vehicle. T-bills are short-term vehicles. If for example (just one example) you plan to use OA dollars 18 months from now to make a down payment on a home then T-bills would be appropriate and MBH wouldn’t be.
 

Listopad

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Right, so it depends on the time horizon and investment objectives. Both fit into the “bonds” category, but MBH is a long-term vehicle. T-bills are short-term vehicles. If for example (just one example) you plan to use OA dollars 18 months from now to make a down payment on a home then T-bills would be appropriate and MBH wouldn’t be.
I have no immediate needs for cpf oa dollars, meant for long term….
 

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One of my current favorite bloggers Kevin Drum makes a really good point: the U.S. Federal Reserve didn’t really start raising interest rates until its 50 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate in May, 2022. That was only 6 months ago. He posits that we haven’t even seen any inflation fighting effects from these rate increases due to lags and won’t until about February, 2023.

If Drum is correct then you may have as little as about 3 more months to start pivoting to longer tenor bonds, to lock in elevated interest rates. Starting in February (if he’s correct) the U.S. inflation prints should be lower, and the bond markets will stop pricing in rate hikes. Translated into Singapore terms you may only have a couple more months of comparatively attractive Singapore Savings Bonds. And (assuming Drum is correct) mortgage interest rates should peak early next year then start falling…

…Or he could be wrong, but I think his basic point is correct, that we haven’t yet seen the inflation impacts of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes.
 
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chekseng80

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One of my current favorite bloggers Kevin Drum makes a really good point: the U.S. Federal Reserve didn’t really start raising interest rates until its 50 basis point increase in the Fed Funds rate in May, 2022. That was only 6 months ago. He posits that we haven’t even seen any inflation fighting effects from these rate increases due to lags and won’t until about February, 2023.

If Drum is correct then you may have as little as about 3 more months to start pivoting to longer tenor bonds, to lock in elevated interest rates. Starting in February (if he’s correct) the U.S. inflation prints should be lower, and the bond markets will stop pricing in rate hikes. Translated into Singapore terms you may only have a couple more months of comparatively attractive Singapore Savings Bonds. And (assuming Drum is correct) mortgage interest rates should peak early next year then start falling…

…Or he could be wrong, but I think his basic point is correct, that we haven’t yet seen the inflation impacts of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Does it also means MBH yield will increase since it is mostly mid-term bonds?

I have a sizable amount of cash (30% of my investment portfolio including CPF SA component which i treat as bond leg). In view that bond might be more favourable in the coming few yrs assuming stagflation environment, should i still invest in stock or exclude CPF SA and start building my bond leg using MBH? I certainly do not wan to keep large pile of investable cash on hand (or should i aka market timing)?
 

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Here's the U.S. BEA's inflation data for October, 2022:

• PCE Year over Year: 6.0%
• Core PCE Year over Year: 5.0%
• PCE Month over Month: 4.1%
• Core PCE Month over Month: 2.7%

"Core" excludes food and energy. The Month over Month percentages are annualized. In summary, this report suggests U.S. dollar inflation is probably already tamed. The Fed Chairman recently commented that he thinks this month (December) might be the last interest rate hike for at least a while.
 

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Hi BBC, this is more of a general retirement question. I'm getting worried about making insurance premium payments going forward 10-15 years later when I am (semi-)retired. It's one thing to live frugally but another to have to make continuing payments for health insurance, especially the higher private Medishield payments as I get older that are paid out of cash.
For context, my savings are in equity, mostly foreign ETFs (partly following your allocation actually, cf. Shiny Things). I'm with Prudential for Medishield. Should I be worried or will the passive investment plan adequately take care of my insurance and general living needs? TIA.
 

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Should I be worried or will the passive investment plan adequately take care of my insurance and general living needs? TIA.
Yes, you should be worried about medical expenses (including insurance premiums) now and in retirement. And then you take that worry (or "concern," a better word), incorporate it into your projected spending needs, and design/execute a retirement financial plan that will reliably handle your spending needs.

In the Singapore context the #1 most important thing you can do to control medical expenses is to get your care from the public medical system. Another possibility in terms of controlling costs is geographic arbitrage, namely to retire in a country with lower medical costs and/or more robust public medical systems that charge little or nothing at the point of service — but that still deliver high quality care.
 

dao

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namely to retire in a country with lower medical costs and/or more robust public medical systems that charge little or nothing at the point of service — but that still deliver high quality care.
Can share which country is that?
 

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Thoughts about “FIRE” in the Singaporean Context

Let’s suppose you want to achieve financial independence as early as practically possible. I don’t think that should necessarily be your goal — as you may see in a moment — but let’s assume. A lot of “FIRE” advice is based on an American perspective, and most of it still applies. But it needs to be tweaked a bit for Singapore, so here’s how I’d think about it.

Disability

In the U.S. almost everyone who works is covered under Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). You can think of this as akin to CareShield Life but better in practically every way: somewhat less demanding qualification criteria to claim, higher payouts, no practical minimum payout age, etc. Disability can obviously wreck a FIRE plan, hard and permanently, so I keep harping on Disability Income Insurance in the Singapore context especially. Yes, it’s a cost, but I think it’s an extremely important one since we don’t have adequate backstop disability insurance in Singapore. (The U.S. might not either, but theirs is better.)

Medical Care

Another background assumption in the U.S. is that you probably live in a Medicaid expansion state and thus could fall back on Medicaid for your healthcare needs. And Medicaid is rather good, actually. Moreover, there are no wealth spend down requirements to qualify for “ordinary“ Medicaid. It’s only an income-based qualification. So that prototypical part-time YouTuber earning $5,000 per year may be able to qualify for Medicaid. There’s also an income-based cap on insurance premiums now if you do end up paying for insurance. Medicaid can grab most of your remaining wealth if you end up in a nursing home paid by Medicaid, but that’s usually end of life. The U.S. also has Medicare (age 65+ coverage).

Singapore is different. In my view you should obtain all your medical care from the public sector, and you should always get a referral (to qualify for maximum available subsidies). I think an “as charged” public hospital B1 ward Integrated Shield plan is a reasonable thing to buy, but not above that. And your financial plan needs to account for these premiums including unreimbursed care and public medical inflation. You might consider retiring in another country based in part (or largely) on greater predictability of medical expenses, for example a country with a good public medical system that charges little or nothing at the point of service. I think these issues are very manageable in Singapore, but you should adapt the “FIRE” principles to Singapore’s medical care environment.

Central Provident Fund

”FIRE” in Singapore involves constructing two financial bridges: the first bridge to age 55 (minimum CPF withdrawal age) and the second to age 70 preferably (the latest CPF LIFE payout starting age). In the U.S. the “bridge” ages are different, and for aggressive FIRErs the Social Security pension formula is favorable. (It slightly rewards them for retiring early.) So the underlying math changes in Singapore.

I think you should take as much advantage of CPF as you can in your FIRE plan. It can be quite helpful.

Housing

In the Singapore context I think this means a reasonably sized HDB flat that’ll run at least to age 105 of the youngest spouse/partner. I wouldn’t attempt to reach for a private condo, not if you want to retire early.

This is a problem because the minimum HDB age for singles is 35. Thus a popular FIRE ingredient is living with parents, other elders, or renting a room in a HDB flat. Or marrying earlier, but don’t do that unless you would without the HDB benefit.

Transport

Don’t buy a private automobile.

Marriage/Partnership

Yes, dual incomes are helpful as always. In Singapore same-sex couples don’t have the same rights as opposite-sex couples, so some imperfect adjustments are needed if you’re in a same-sex relationship. Hopefully that’ll change soon, but unfortunately I wouldn’t assume that.

Children

Here’s one reason why FIRE is tough: children are incompatible. Do you really want to FIRE, or will you make some adjustments in this area? Children aren’t free, but they’re particularly expensive in Singapore.

By the way, no children more likely means no life insurance needed. Maybe you’d still consider some term life insurance to help out a spouse/partner, and vice versa.

Geographic Arbitrage

Generally speaking there are more opportunities for geographic arbitrage in both earning and retirement years from Singapore. If it makes sense to take advantage of these opportunities I recommend you do so.

Food

It still makes financial sense in Singapore to cook at home and pack lunches. I know a lot of people think heartland hawker stalls are affordable, and they still are, but you can still save a lot of money preparing your own meals. Or at least when you visit a hawker stall bring an insulated bottle with your own cold or hot tea, coffee, water, or whatever. It costs you 30 cents (if that) instead of $1.30, so you’re saving about a buck every meal. (Those flip top Zojirushi or Kyocera bottles are terrific. About $20 for ~350 ml or $22 for ~500 ml.)

There are tons of other consumer spending tips to help save money, but I’ll skip those.

Investing

Yes, I know real estate is fashionable in Singapore. Yes, I know we have CPF Ordinary Accounts that “nudge” us into buying homes — and then ABSD to make us think twice. I still wouldn’t, not much. The net yields/returns aren’t great, and I don’t think they’re going to get much better. For FIRE purposes especially I’d go with one or a couple low cost index funds, the usual ones mentioned frequently in this forum. And you don’t need a $250,000 down payment to get in the game.

Putting it crudely, perhaps too crudely, real estate is something of a racket here. It’s the one major type of investment that’s rather heavily taxed in Singapore, and it’s effectively price capped (“cooling measures”). Am I inclined to put 68% or 80% or 92% of my net worth in that game? No, I am not. “Everything in moderation.”

Anything else I should’ve mentioned?
 

perrinrahl

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BBC, thanks for the useful notes.
Again referring to Shiny Things, would you recommend the 110-age formula to scale down the equity portion as we age? I find the returns for bonds too low and the risks for index funds acceptable, and I am a self-employed person with little monies in CPF (Medisave is OK).
It's also not a choice between FIRE or not; continuing to work part-time (pretty doable being self-employed) is probably necessary for me. It will only be as much as to meet the annual costs for the items you listed.
 

BBCWatcher

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BBC, thanks for the useful notes.
Again referring to Shiny Things, would you recommend the 110-age formula to scale down the equity portion as we age? I find the returns for bonds too low and the risks for index funds acceptable, and I am a self-employed person with little monies in CPF (Medisave is OK).
110-age works fine. I prefer holding the stock allocation constant for most of a working career then ride the slope down starting about 10 years before retirement. I think that’s operationally easier to do. But “whichever.”
It's also not a choice between FIRE or not; continuing to work part-time (pretty doable being self-employed) is probably necessary for me. It will only be as much as to meet the annual costs for the items you listed.
That’s one option, but my preference is to nail down the FI part even if it means a couple more years of full-time work rather than being financially dependent on part-time work.
 

jywy2005

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What about Thailand?
I am exploring Chiang Mai as an option. It is more laid back and cheaper than Bangkok.There are a number of retirement villages there with a substantial expat community. The medical facilities are world class standards, or close to it, and quite affordable.

On the other hand, Chiang Mai has smog issues, due to farm land clearing between Jan - Mar. Not sure if that practice has been outlawed.
 

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The U.S. CPI for November was a mere 0.1% month over month, seasonally adjusted. Annualized that’s about 1.3%.
 
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