*Official* Forex Trading thread.

[lovesleeping1981]

In a dilemma as don't know to long or short NZD/USD now.

RSI not oversold condition yet. Will put in a buy at 10:00pm sharp.

I would long it too Uncle Can. Support your decision. But my money is all in short EUR/USD, no more margin left.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

USD/CHF

Ya man. I think any decent stoploss also will get triggered by that move.

It was a 33 pips crash exactly at 8:30pm. Put stop loss sure triggered!

When have major data release better not trade or if trade do not put stop loss. Sure bang balls!

I think there's too much news to keep track so I don't keep track at all.

I just keep enough margin and don't put stoploss like u. Though there is still a stop loss which is when trade loses 50% of capital then oanda will close the trade for me.

OK noted. Remember every night from 8:30 - 10:00pm many US data release.

For now you may want to take money and run first.

 

[lovesleeping1981]

OK noted. Remember every night from 8:30 - 10:00pm many US data release.

For now you may want to take money and run first.

Thanks for this advice Uncle Can. Will take note of 830-10pm.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

NZD/USD

Thanks for this advice Uncle Can. Will take note of 830-10pm.

No problem. For the record I did not buy at 10:00pm. No value no buy.

Open beer celebrate first. Slowly catch up with price action as I only return to my outfield trading desk around 9:15pm.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

NZD/USD

Haha heng never pull the trigger. My instinct was correct. No value no buy. Price stalled at 0.73 and now in consolidation phase.

Put one low ball buy limit order at 0.728 just in case can kio durians.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

NZD/USD

After looking at longer term trend I decided to short NZD/USD hor yi si.

Lately I am fine tuning how to hoot with calculated risk by going in US$10,000 at a time to spread out the risk. Just open 8x US$10,000 contracts. Average price 0.73015.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Haha crap wrong call. Should have long NZD/USD instead haha.

Hit my quarter million (US$250,000) contracts threshold in total. Used margin 55% which I am comfortable with in case Fatboy Kim fires nuclear missile and start WW3! NO STOP LOSS.

I guess this is the max I can milk for this week. Intensive 5 trading days with no social life. It was good while it lasted. Thanks for reading my posts and thrash talking. I hope some of you have benefitted from reading my posts.

I wish everyone a huat week ahead. Next week will have FOMC Minutes release. Another exciting week for sure.

16/08/2017 2:00pm EST

FOMC Minutes
Meeting of July 25 - 26, 2017

 

[lovesleeping1981]

Oh Uncle Can. Can I ask how much is your per pip value in your scalping trades?

 

[lovesleeping1981]

After looking at longer term trend I decided to short NZD/USD hor yi si.

Lately I am fine tuning how to hoot with calculated risk by going in US$10,000 at a time to spread out the risk. Just open 8x US$10,000 contracts. Average price 0.73015.

Actually I was looking too at longer term trend (weekly) when I thought out should go long too. This really shows that each individual can looks at same chart but derived different perspective.

I was looking at this weekly chart when I commented I supported your long NZD/USD, as the candle was hitting the middle band and I saw it may bounce up.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Pip Value

Oh Uncle Can. Can I ask how much is your per pip value in your scalping trades?

Mini Lot (0.1): 1 Pip = US$0.10
Standard Lot (1.0): 1 Pip = US$1.00

Per currency pair I hoot minimum 1 mini lot, maximum 1 standard lot.

I have been trading mini lots for one year until something happened.

About 1 month ago made a fat finger mistake and entered US$150,000 (1.5 Lot) trade. Got a shock but luckily closed with KFC profit shortly. This is my foray into standard lot trades. I guess it was fate that help to give me the unintentional nudge over.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

NZD/USD

Actually I was looking too at longer term trend (weekly) when I thought out should go long too. This really shows that each individual can looks at same chart but derived different perspective.

I was looking at this weekly chart when I commented I supported your long NZD/USD, as the candle was hitting the middle band and I saw it may bounce up.

Initially I thought the same as you as long position is the way to go. However it is only short term.

1) NZD/USD spiked up due to disappointing US inflation data at 8:30pm. I was saying yesterday that it is trying to break 0.729X for the third time. Before that the market has started to position itself and priced in already around 0.729. The disappointing US inflation data was what it needs to push it over to 0.73X.

2) Being last day of the week many traders will want to carry trade to receive swap points over the weekend. So they long it thus demand is higher.

3) RBNZ has said several times NZD should weaken not strengthen. The last statement made was about 48 hours ago. This is the indicator to me I should short not long. Being Friday already I want to position for next week and not for a few hours of trading time left.

4) RBA has also said a strong AUD is not good at this moment. AUD/USD is correlated to NZD/USD. My stucked AUD/USD short position is recovering day by day. THIS IS WHY I AM CONFIDENT. The trend will be down as both currency pairs correct southwards. RBA has also expressed that it may intervene if it deem necessary. My number 1 rule is never to go against central bank policy.

NZD/USD closing price was 0.732X and if you put in a buy on Monday you are already too late because limited furthur upside. It will retrace below 0.73 at some point. 0.73 is the physcological barrier for up or down.

If my strategy is correct. Upon open NZD/USD may gap down and may hit my buy limit order.

This analysis report may seem short but it is through many hours of reading, research and staring at charts!

 

[lovesleeping1981]

Initially I thought the same as you as long position is the way to go. However it is only short term.

1) NZD/USD spiked up due to disappointing US inflation data at 8:30pm. I was saying yesterday that it is trying to break 0.729X for the third time. Before that the market has started to position itself and priced in already around 0.729. The disappointing US inflation data was what it needs to push it over to 0.73X.

2) Being last day of the week many traders will want to carry trade to receive swap points over the weekend. So they long it thus demand is higher.

3) RBNZ has said several times NZD should weaken not strengthen. The last statement made was about 48 hours ago. This is the indicator to me I should short not long. Being Friday already I want to position for next week and not for a few hours of trading time left.

4) RBA has also said a strong AUD is not good at this moment. AUD/USD is correlated to NZD/USD. My stucked AUD/USD short position is recovering day by day. THIS IS WHY I AM CONFIDENT. The trend will be down as both currency pairs correct southwards. RBA has also expressed that it may intervene if it deem necessary. My number 1 rule is never to go against central bank policy.

NZD/USD closing price was 0.732X and if you put in a buy on Monday you are already too late because limited furthur upside. It will retrace below 0.73 at some point. 0.73 is the physcological barrier for up or down.

If my strategy is correct. Upon open NZD/USD may gap down and may hit my buy limit order.

This analysis report may seem short but it is through many hours of reading, research and staring at charts!

Wow that's a long analysis for me!!

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Wow that's a long analysis for me!!

This is how hardcore I can be with Forex.

Remember we are pitting against humans mostly. You can do all the technical analysis you want but physcological factors play a part too.

Always remember the market is forward looking. Current trading price is already priced in. You must be one step ahead.

Eg. If I believe mid to long term NZD/USD is heading south. I will short and scalp hor yi si. As I practice no stop loss this is to protect my position to get stucked for too long if it does.

I have mentioned many times my strategy is long term. One must know what is his own strategy. When you see the bigger picture you will know the course of action.

Good luck.

 

[lovesleeping1981]

This is how hardcore I can be with Forex.

Remember we are pitting against humans mostly. You can do all the technical analysis you want but physcological factors play a part too.

Always remember the market is forward looking. Current trading price is already priced in. You must be one step ahead.

Eg. If I believe mid to long term NZD/USD is heading south. I will short and scalp hor yi si. As I practice no stop loss this is to protect my position to get stucked for too long if it does.

I have mentioned many times my strategy is long term. One must know what is his own strategy. When you see the bigger picture you will know the course of action.

Good luck.

Actually I don't understand this part about pitting against other humans. I also don't understand the big picture on why generally the pairs move (except for big news).

Does it mean that if more than 50% of the trade is buy long, then the pair will go long? So our trade have to be with the majority? (This is assuming invisible hand did not come in to short it suddenly).

 

[InterestingStuff]

Hmm long dollar ah ,looks like turning point
I leaning more towards short dollar, gold yen bonds, safe haven trades seems to be gaining strength

 

[subprimelive]

What time does fx start trading on Sunday ? Singapore time i mean. I want to start monitoring the majors , gold USD, crosses. See whether will gap up or down with all the NK tensions

 

[xersion]

Monday 5 and 6am

Sent from OPPO X9079 using GAGT

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Actually I don't understand this part about pitting against other humans. I also don't understand the big picture on why generally the pairs move (except for big news).

Does it mean that if more than 50% of the trade is buy long, then the pair will go long? So our trade have to be with the majority? (This is assuming invisible hand did not come in to short it suddenly).

Think you really have to dig deeper and gain more experience. No point for me explaining too detail with stuff that you are not familar yet. Also no such thing as sure win by following majority bets.

CFTC publishes Commitments Of Traders report every Friday. However the data lags by 1 week. Nonetheless you can see the overall trend of bets from US$100,000 up contracts.

http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

So now are you ready to play puts or calls for next phase? Hahahaha.

 

[Mr.Canberra]

What time does fx start trading on Sunday ? Singapore time i mean. I want to start monitoring the majors , gold USD, crosses. See whether will gap up or down with all the NK tensions

Haha power you want to short USD and gold at the same time for hedging is it?

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Wow I arrived late for my train but schedule was delayed. Took plane arrived 15min after check in counter close also saved by luck as schedule also delayed!

Both times without prior knowledge of delay. Twice close shave in one day.

In this world there are many unexplainable events.

The outfield trading desk I am staying at has a God Of Fortune and God Of Earth altar. Before I left the place today I pray with both my palms together to thank both deities for a good trading week and po pi 小弟。

This place I have been staying on and off for 3 years and have also picked up money (S$10-20 equilavent) several times in the vicinity before.