*Official* General Market Chit Chat Thread - Part 2

[shareholder]

by 2020 most of the cleaners you see would at least have a degree from nus or ntu

this is because our university produced too many degree holders

Maybe not so soon, 2025 is possible, but most likely the degrees are not from local uni.

 

[onlybuyneversell]

Let us not forget many of our pioneer generation elders are still working and should be paid better.

3% annual wage increase for local cleaners is an insult. Cannot even cover inflation during good years.

See those lao ah ma and ah pek picking cardboards in my neighbourhood also make me feel sad. That was definitely not the retirement life they envisioned when they were young.

 

[strangerjun]

the government would have retrenched many civil servants replaced by robots or eservices

so all those who get degree no choice have to sweep floor like in european countries

Cleaning is one job that most threatened by automation and technology. They only need operators and cut down a lot of manual work. Mental labour still cannot be replaced until you got AI like Jarvis.

 

[tmkedmw]

As of 2015, one in 3 in the labor force have a degree.

 

[strangerjun]

Time to re look at Capitaland again!

 

[uncle168]

when interest rate rises prices of assets falls

singaporean wealth will shrink

wages will start to fall as prices of goods & services falls due to falling demand

this year the meltdown was in oil & gas related stock

next year as yellen going to raise rates continually the reits would meltdown

interest cost would eat into dpu

reits can't raise rental as retail is affected by high vacancy rates

bedok point the pasta mania closed down liao moved to chai chee viva industrial park

fraser centrepoint trust would collapse as changi city point becomes ghost town, almost all the ground floor shops have closed down

 

[strangerjun]

when interest rate rises prices of assets falls

singaporean wealth will shrink

wages will start to fall as prices of goods & services falls due to falling demand

this year the meltdown was in oil & gas related stock

next year as yellen going to raise rates continually the reits would meltdown

interest cost would eat into dpu

reits can't raise rental as retail is affected by high vacancy rates

bedok point the pasta mania closed down liao moved to chai chee viva industrial park

fraser centrepoint trust would collapse as changi city point becomes ghost town, almost all the ground floor shops have closed down

That is why many shopping malls break their spaces into smaller units and rent them out to spread the risk. 1 tenant up lorry still got others.

Keekeekee

 

[uncle168]

if the government cannot create new jobs to attract new immigrants, the demand for housing will drop

pr whom brought properties would default on their mortgages if they cannot find anyone to rent their flats or condo

this is why i say the covered bonds issued by the local banks are like lehman bonds waiting to default

the properties packaged in these bonds are mostly condos brought during the peak of the property cycle and most likely to default

eventually the local banks would face liquidity problems when offshore funds move their trillions back to the us when trump announce lower corporate tax and maybe even remove capital gain tax

singapore thrived on low tax, free trade and immigration

those days are gone when trump takes over

 

[uncle168]

even bedok mall which has high human traffic only those that sell food is surviving but those that sell shoes clothes not much business as buy online is much cheaper

i wonder how viva got permission to turn its warehouse into f&b

the entire chai chee is now like a retail f&b hub

the space of the new pasta mania is so big and they turn into central kitchen for delivroo

even the new burger king is quite big

i think the rental is much cheaper than bedok mall and bedok point

 

[uncle168]

but now most of the business of pasta mania is food delivery so inconvenient nevermind

you will find a lot of f&b move to cheaper location as many have cars can drive there

if cannot drive there can ubereats or delivroo

 

[uncle168]

retail reits borrow billions and have to pay high dpu so rental must rise

but the shops not stupid they either move to ulu place or cut down the shop space

the vintage studio move to bedok mall like also no business as cut hair is the most profitable business

now bedok almost all the shop house is cut hair one

how to compete?

 

[Kinetic88]

Moody's changes Mapletree Logistics Trust's outlook to negative; affirms Baa1 issuer rating


https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-Mapletree-Logistics-Trusts-outlook-to-negative-affirms-Baa1--PR_359745?WT.mc_id=AM%7eUmV1dGVyc05ld3NfU0JfUmF0aW5nIE5ld3NfQW

 

[uncle168]

the government introduce reits in singapore to attract foreign capital

most of the property injected are worthless like vivocity

but low interest rates meant reits can borrow huge sums of money from the bank almost for free and the tenant would pay rental to be distributed to unitholders

too good to be true right?

now interest rate rise liao

because the reits property are revalued at sky high valuation when rental rate starts to fall and vacancy rate start to rise, the earnings of the reit will start to fall

while interest expense would sky rocket

this would mean there is a high chance that reits would end up like shipping trust when the rental can't even cover the interest cost

this would mean zero dpu for unitholders

keekeekee

 

[limster]

Not enough money just issue rights.

if they issue retail bonds at 3.5% people sure buy. but have to move fast to soak up the excess liquidity.

Can see the Aspial etc... issue too many times, people tired liao. Need to be the first mover.

See the price of the capitaland 3.08% bond....

 

[uncle168]

the eventual meltdown is when the reits default on their debt

the local banks would have huge exposure to worthless buildings nobody wants to buy

keekeekee

 

[RobinTeoHood]

That is why many shopping malls break their spaces into smaller units and rent them out to spread the risk. 1 tenant up lorry still got others.

Keekeekee

To me, that is actually a sign of struggling to survive and does not bode well.

Sent from Space using GAGT

 

[uncle168]

all the retail bonds issued by construction companies, reits and property companies would default next year

it will be 100 times worst than the bond default by the oil & gas industry

the people who buy the retail bonds are not rich people

they will become very angry with the pap

keekeekee

 

[Mr.Canberra]

Singapore Dollar Likely to Slide to 2008 Levels: Policy Sage

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ge-sees-currency-testing-2009-low-amid-easing

by Netty Idayu Ismail
December 16, 2016, 8:38 AM GMT+8

Central bank set to lower center of band, NatWest’s Singh says
Options traders have grown more bearish on Singapore’s dollar
The Singapore dollar is likely to slide to levels seen in the aftermath of the global financial crisis as the Monetary Authority of Singapore resumes easing policy in April. So says an analyst who’s correctly predicted the last three central bank decisions.

The authority, which uses the currency as a tool to manage the economy rather than interest rates, is set to lower the center of the band within which it steers the local dollar as Singapore’s export-driven economy feels more pain from China’s slowdown in 2017, according to Vaninder Singh, an economist at NatWest Markets, part of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. The currency is set to weaken past S$1.45 against the greenback within the next six months, Singh said, a level last seen in August 2009.

A property downturn in China, Singapore’s biggest trading partner, will hurt the Southeast Asian nation’s prospects, said Singh. That’s at a time when growth is already under pressure amid a slowdown in global trade, with lower energy prices hurting the oil and gas services industry. The MAS stayed put in October, having eased at the first of this year’s two scheduled meetings in April and twice in 2015.

“We’re looking for a further slowdown in Singapore’s growth,” said Singh, who is based in the city state. “There are a couple of headwinds that are coming from China.”

The Singapore dollar fetched S$1.4424 versus its U.S. counterpart on Friday. It had sunk to S$1.4481 on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and forecast a steeper path for borrowing costs in 2017.

While Singh’s prediction is in line with the median estimate for the currency by end-June in a Bloomberg survey of analysts, options traders are more pessimistic as the currency heads for a record fourth annual decline.

The MAS guides the Singapore dollar against a basket of currencies and adjusts the pace of appreciation or depreciation by changing the slope, width and center of a band. It refrains from disclosing more details.

Bearish Options

The premium traders pay for six-month options to sell the local dollar, compared with those to buy, widened to 1.26 percentage points, from a two-year low of 0.96 percentage point reached in November.

While the government in November cut the top end of its 2016 growth forecast to 1.5 percent from 2 percent, it said the economy will probably avoid a recession. The MAS said in October that inflation had “troughed,” and stuck to the neutral stance of zero appreciation for the currency.

“There is this very interesting interplay between frustrating slower growth and stabilizing inflation,” said Koon How Heng, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG’s private banking and wealth management unit in Singapore. “It’s not that straightforward that the MAS may ease outright.”

‘Somewhat Lackluster’

The local dollar will probably slump to S$1.48 at the end of next year on the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates and a weaker Chinese yuan, Heng said.

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. too expects Singapore’s central bank to adjust the center of its policy band next year, said Khoon Goh, its head of Asia research in Singapore. Investors who are betting on a decline in the currency can take profit at S$1.50, he said.

Jason Wang, who has been advising his clients to buy the greenback in the past four years, is also bearish. The Singapore dollar will likely slide toward S$1.50 in the next six months, said the chief executive officer of Stamford Management Pte, a family office in the city state that oversees more than $200 million for Asia’s rich.

“Given the main pillars of growth within the Singapore economy are somewhat lackluster, the MAS should remain as accommodative for as long as possible,” Wang said.

 

[Hot_Dog]

all the retail bonds issued by construction companies, reits and property companies would default next year

it will be 100 times worst than the bond default by the oil & gas industry

the people who buy the retail bonds are not rich people

they will become very angry with the pap

keekeekee

uncle are you a script writer for mediacorpse?

 

[uncle168]

like the soilbuid reit technics bankrupt liao

who will rent the space?

soilbuid borrowed a lot of money to buy the technics building

now nobody rent

should revalue to zero mah

but strangely in the balance sheet it stays intact

property valuation is a black box

it is a way reits keep increasing their bank borrowings

actually the property is worthless one

in 2017 you will see what i mean

when nobody want to buy the property the banks would have to write off everything and ask the government for help