LiteHouse
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You can join those uni meimei as girlfriend
*Official* MasterLeong Thread
- Thread starter MasterLeong
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You can join those uni meimei as girlfriend
MasterLeong
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See mr market's mood tomorrow.
May be able to get some bargains.
dunno when boat will leave port
maybe soon
MasterLeong
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wait they call police on me sia LOL
MasterLeong
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by cimb
TPG wins NESA to become Singapore’s fourth mobile player
● TPG Telecom won the bid to become Singapore's fourth mobile operator in the New
Entrant Spectrum Auction (NESA) that was concluded today. Given its stronger
balance sheet, it was not a total surprise that it managed to outbid MyRepublic.
● Its winning bid of S$105m was 3x the preferential reserve price of S$35m, or about
64% higher than the reserve price in a general auction. We believe this will not curtail
TPG’s ability to spend capex to meet the Infocomm Media Development Authority’s
(IMDA) roll out obligations.
● TPG will be allocated 2 x 10MHz in the 900MHz and 40MHz in the 2.3GHz spectrum
bands, with the new spectrum rights to commence from 1 Apr 2017. We believe TPG
may possibly launch its mobile service in mid-2018, as it will require time to roll out its
network and ensure that the initial customer experience is reasonable.
GSA could be held in Feb 2017; Manageable risk of intense bidding
● IMDA will next proceed to hold the General Spectrum Auction (GSA), most likely in
Feb 2017, in our view. This will be open to existing players, as well as TPG.
● TPG has said it will join the GSA to bid for an additional 15MHz spectrum. Given
IMDA’s spectrum caps, TPG will only be able to bid for either i) 2 x 5MHz of 700MHz
and 5MHz of 2300MHz, or ii) 15MHz of 2300MHz.
● We think incumbents may try to deny TPG access to the valuable 700MHz spectrum
by bidding for 2 x 15MHz each. If TPG pursues the 700MHz, this may see the final
spectrum price ending up higher than the reserve price.
● However, we believe the risk of prices reaching exorbitant levels is mitigated by the
fact that incumbents will likely remain rational bidders and that it only requires one of
them to pare down its spectrum lot demand to 2 x 10MHz (thereby making way for
TPG) to eliminate any excess demand and complete the auction.
What to expect in 2017 and once TPG launches service?
● Incumbents have already introduced many new offerings (sim-only, data upsize) in
2016 to cover the needs of various customer segments, in preparation for the entry of
the fourth mobile player. As such, we do not expect too many new launches or major
price cuts in 2017. However, incumbents may incur high subs acquisition and
retention cost (SARC) to lock in customers for the next two years, especially
coinciding with the launch of the iPhone 8 in Sep 2017.
● When TPG launches its service in mid-2018, we believe that its services will initially
appeal more to the price-sensitive subs as its network quality/coverage will likely be
inferior vs. incumbents. M1 and, to a lesser extent, StarHub, would have a bigger
exposure to this segment of subs (as % of total base). For SingTel, 37% of its mobile
service revenues come from Enterprise customers, which are less likely to switch.
Maintain Neutral sector rating; SingTel remains preferred pick
● Although M1’s and StarHub’s share prices have fallen in the past 24 months, we
believe that their current valuations are just about fair. We also see a big overhang on
their share prices at least until TPG’s service launch in mid-2018, when the market
gets better visibility of its impact.
● We maintain Hold on StarHub and M1, as we believe their 6-7% FY16-18F yields are
merely sufficient to compensate investors for future earnings risk. SingTel is our only
Add and preferred Singapore telco pick. We maintain Neutral on the sector.
TPG wins NESA to become Singapore’s fourth mobile player
● TPG Telecom won the bid to become Singapore's fourth mobile operator in the New
Entrant Spectrum Auction (NESA) that was concluded today. Given its stronger
balance sheet, it was not a total surprise that it managed to outbid MyRepublic.
● Its winning bid of S$105m was 3x the preferential reserve price of S$35m, or about
64% higher than the reserve price in a general auction. We believe this will not curtail
TPG’s ability to spend capex to meet the Infocomm Media Development Authority’s
(IMDA) roll out obligations.
● TPG will be allocated 2 x 10MHz in the 900MHz and 40MHz in the 2.3GHz spectrum
bands, with the new spectrum rights to commence from 1 Apr 2017. We believe TPG
may possibly launch its mobile service in mid-2018, as it will require time to roll out its
network and ensure that the initial customer experience is reasonable.
GSA could be held in Feb 2017; Manageable risk of intense bidding
● IMDA will next proceed to hold the General Spectrum Auction (GSA), most likely in
Feb 2017, in our view. This will be open to existing players, as well as TPG.
● TPG has said it will join the GSA to bid for an additional 15MHz spectrum. Given
IMDA’s spectrum caps, TPG will only be able to bid for either i) 2 x 5MHz of 700MHz
and 5MHz of 2300MHz, or ii) 15MHz of 2300MHz.
● We think incumbents may try to deny TPG access to the valuable 700MHz spectrum
by bidding for 2 x 15MHz each. If TPG pursues the 700MHz, this may see the final
spectrum price ending up higher than the reserve price.
● However, we believe the risk of prices reaching exorbitant levels is mitigated by the
fact that incumbents will likely remain rational bidders and that it only requires one of
them to pare down its spectrum lot demand to 2 x 10MHz (thereby making way for
TPG) to eliminate any excess demand and complete the auction.
What to expect in 2017 and once TPG launches service?
● Incumbents have already introduced many new offerings (sim-only, data upsize) in
2016 to cover the needs of various customer segments, in preparation for the entry of
the fourth mobile player. As such, we do not expect too many new launches or major
price cuts in 2017. However, incumbents may incur high subs acquisition and
retention cost (SARC) to lock in customers for the next two years, especially
coinciding with the launch of the iPhone 8 in Sep 2017.
● When TPG launches its service in mid-2018, we believe that its services will initially
appeal more to the price-sensitive subs as its network quality/coverage will likely be
inferior vs. incumbents. M1 and, to a lesser extent, StarHub, would have a bigger
exposure to this segment of subs (as % of total base). For SingTel, 37% of its mobile
service revenues come from Enterprise customers, which are less likely to switch.
Maintain Neutral sector rating; SingTel remains preferred pick
● Although M1’s and StarHub’s share prices have fallen in the past 24 months, we
believe that their current valuations are just about fair. We also see a big overhang on
their share prices at least until TPG’s service launch in mid-2018, when the market
gets better visibility of its impact.
● We maintain Hold on StarHub and M1, as we believe their 6-7% FY16-18F yields are
merely sufficient to compensate investors for future earnings risk. SingTel is our only
Add and preferred Singapore telco pick. We maintain Neutral on the sector.
Last edited:
MasterLeong
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what dbs says
StarHub to fare better than its local peer M1. StarHub has a lower
reliance on mobile revenue (~51% in 3Q16 vs. 68% for M1) and
stickier, less price sensitive customer base. StarHub has also
introduced more fixed-mobile bundling offers to reduce the loss of
revenue share to a new entrant. We expect StarHub’s revenue share
to drop from 30% in 2015 to 27% by 2022. As a result, we expect
group earnings to drop by 25% from 2015 level by 2022
M1 most impacted from the entry of a fourth operator. We believe the
potential entry of a new player will be most felt by M1 due to its higher
exposure to mobile revenue and a more price-sensitive subscriber base.
We project M1’s mobile revenue share to contract from 18% at present
to 14%, down from 15% in our previous estimates. Further, we expect
M1’s earnings to contract by 38% by 2022 from 2015 levels, compared
to the 31% drop we previously expected.
StarHub to fare better than its local peer M1. StarHub has a lower
reliance on mobile revenue (~51% in 3Q16 vs. 68% for M1) and
stickier, less price sensitive customer base. StarHub has also
introduced more fixed-mobile bundling offers to reduce the loss of
revenue share to a new entrant. We expect StarHub’s revenue share
to drop from 30% in 2015 to 27% by 2022. As a result, we expect
group earnings to drop by 25% from 2015 level by 2022
M1 most impacted from the entry of a fourth operator. We believe the
potential entry of a new player will be most felt by M1 due to its higher
exposure to mobile revenue and a more price-sensitive subscriber base.
We project M1’s mobile revenue share to contract from 18% at present
to 14%, down from 15% in our previous estimates. Further, we expect
M1’s earnings to contract by 38% by 2022 from 2015 levels, compared
to the 31% drop we previously expected.
MasterLeong
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dbs on ocbc
Riding high on rising rates
Positive on rising rates for both banking and insurance business;
upgrade to BUY. Expectations on rising interest rates from
December 2016 should start to spell a new phase for higher
NIM. Our FY17-18F earnings are raised by 5-8% on higher NIM
expectation, bearing in mind loan growth will likely stay
sluggish and funding costs stay stable. We expect credit costs to
decline in FY17F as the bulk of NPL issues have been addressed.
OCBC’s key differentiating factor lies in its insurance business
which gives it a more holistic wealth management platform,
which we believe the market may be under-appreciating.
Top-line driven; insurance business could surprise. We expect
NIM to rise by 8bps in FY17F and stabilise going into FY18F.
This will be the key driver to top line amid another expected
sluggish year for loan growth. Our sensitivity analysis indicates
that for every additional 25bps increase in SIBOR, OCBC’s NIM
will rise by 7bps, holding other variables constant, and this
would lead to a further 4% uplift to earnings. Positively, life
insurance businesses correlate positively to rising interest rates
but this may be balanced off by volatile unrealised mark-tomarket
gains/losses along the way.
Asset quality to stabilise in 2017. New NPL formation has
reduced in 3Q16 but more negotiations are expected to emerge
from the oil & gas sector, hence new NPL formation would still
be prevalent for another 1-2 quarters. Management hinted that
NPL ratio would unlikely hit the high of 2.1% that it recorded at
the peak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The SME portfolio
will be closely monitored as this segment tends to be vulnerable
in a prolonged soft economic environment.
Valuation:
Our TP is raised to S$10.30 after our earnings upgrade by 5-8%
over FY17-18F on higher NIM assumptions. This implies 1.1x
FY17F BV and is derived from the Gordon Growth Model (10.5%
ROE, 3% growth, 9.6% cost of equity). A new catalyst has
emerged – rising rates bode well for NIM and insurance business.
Key Risks to Our View:
Further upset in asset quality. We have assumed that the peak of
NPLs would be seen in 2Q16. Overall credit costs should decline
from here but NPL ratio may stay at similar levels. A prolonged
deterioration in the oil & gas sector, coupled with additional
stress from SME, could pose downside risk to earnings.
Riding high on rising rates
Positive on rising rates for both banking and insurance business;
upgrade to BUY. Expectations on rising interest rates from
December 2016 should start to spell a new phase for higher
NIM. Our FY17-18F earnings are raised by 5-8% on higher NIM
expectation, bearing in mind loan growth will likely stay
sluggish and funding costs stay stable. We expect credit costs to
decline in FY17F as the bulk of NPL issues have been addressed.
OCBC’s key differentiating factor lies in its insurance business
which gives it a more holistic wealth management platform,
which we believe the market may be under-appreciating.
Top-line driven; insurance business could surprise. We expect
NIM to rise by 8bps in FY17F and stabilise going into FY18F.
This will be the key driver to top line amid another expected
sluggish year for loan growth. Our sensitivity analysis indicates
that for every additional 25bps increase in SIBOR, OCBC’s NIM
will rise by 7bps, holding other variables constant, and this
would lead to a further 4% uplift to earnings. Positively, life
insurance businesses correlate positively to rising interest rates
but this may be balanced off by volatile unrealised mark-tomarket
gains/losses along the way.
Asset quality to stabilise in 2017. New NPL formation has
reduced in 3Q16 but more negotiations are expected to emerge
from the oil & gas sector, hence new NPL formation would still
be prevalent for another 1-2 quarters. Management hinted that
NPL ratio would unlikely hit the high of 2.1% that it recorded at
the peak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The SME portfolio
will be closely monitored as this segment tends to be vulnerable
in a prolonged soft economic environment.
Valuation:
Our TP is raised to S$10.30 after our earnings upgrade by 5-8%
over FY17-18F on higher NIM assumptions. This implies 1.1x
FY17F BV and is derived from the Gordon Growth Model (10.5%
ROE, 3% growth, 9.6% cost of equity). A new catalyst has
emerged – rising rates bode well for NIM and insurance business.
Key Risks to Our View:
Further upset in asset quality. We have assumed that the peak of
NPLs would be seen in 2Q16. Overall credit costs should decline
from here but NPL ratio may stay at similar levels. A prolonged
deterioration in the oil & gas sector, coupled with additional
stress from SME, could pose downside risk to earnings.
MasterLeong
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the big question now in telcos is
if earnings and dividends drop 30%, what kinda yield will i still be getting?
anyone cares to answer that
if earnings and dividends drop 30%, what kinda yield will i still be getting?
anyone cares to answer that
L'oreal Paris
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Today I bought nth
MasterLeong
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http://www.sharesinv.com/B2F/
http://www.sharesinv.com/CC3/
M1 current yield 7.8%
SH current yield 7.1%
Assuming bear case scenario of 30% cut in earnings/dividends for simplefied sake
M1 future yield 5.5%
SH future yield 5%
for me, I think of it this way as to know my MARGIN OF SAFETY
http://www.sharesinv.com/CC3/
M1 current yield 7.8%
SH current yield 7.1%
Assuming bear case scenario of 30% cut in earnings/dividends for simplefied sake
M1 future yield 5.5%
SH future yield 5%
for me, I think of it this way as to know my MARGIN OF SAFETY
MasterLeong
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Today I bought nth
red day u dont buy... like that u waiting for green day to buy is it hahahaha
MasterLeong
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feel free to discuss or point out anything that I might be missing on the threat of 4th telco, cheers
Dividend Hermit
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I also started to add reits as I ran out of good net-net stocks to buy.
These 2 months, I have bought 50000 shares of SPH Reit, 30000 shares of Frasers Logistics Trust and 20000 shares of AIMS Reit.
If the price is right, I target to add another 20000 shares of Fraser Logistics Trust and 50000 shares of First Reit/Keppel DC.
These 2 months, I have bought 50000 shares of SPH Reit, 30000 shares of Frasers Logistics Trust and 20000 shares of AIMS Reit.
If the price is right, I target to add another 20000 shares of Fraser Logistics Trust and 50000 shares of First Reit/Keppel DC.
L'oreal Paris
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Not no buy is sgx don't like me nvr fill me
Tmr I buy Singtel 3 72 can anot?
Or wait ex dividends
MasterLeong
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cool story bro, care to GPGT your CDP statement? lol
MasterLeong
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Not no buy is sgx don't like me nvr fill me
Tmr I buy Singtel 3 72 can anot?
Or wait ex dividends
you too scared to buy le ba
dont because of half cent or 1 cent, u risk missing the whole boat
sometimes its okay to just buy straight from the seller
you now holding how much % in cash and how much % in stocks?
MasterLeong
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btw you are a believer of net-net stocks... then why you paying premium to book for reits like FLT, first reit and KDC???
isnt that against your believe?
just very curious
L'oreal Paris
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Dividends Warrior
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Today only managed to fill 1st tranche for CCT. Got pretty close for Suntec and FCT near closing bell, but never fill. Shall try again tomorrow. 1 down, 5 more to go!
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