*Official* MasterLeong Thread

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Genosis

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actually this opec news what is the significance? a rare thing that they agreed on? really will boost gao gao?

If all the members stick to the deal, then oil price will rally......and hopefully this momentum will help those O&G companies get fresh contracts...especially oil rig contracts IMO :o
 

MasterLeong

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actually this opec news what is the significance? a rare thing that they agreed on? really will boost gao gao?

if really is deal, then it signals the end of the oil bear

oil becomes bull and market across can rally like siao

we had this 2 year bear mainly due to oil, maybe now it will finally be all over?
 

Genosis

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They say want to fix oil prices how many times already you know??? Drag dunno how many f months already. Say from 2015/2016. It's almost end of 2016 liao hahahaa :s13:

Maybe the Saudi royal family thought they could ride out the storm.....but they underestimate the time length of low oil price to stretch over 2 years :s22: They starting to sweat about social unrest in their country
 

Maeda_Toshiie

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Sure you really want to know?






































To be brutally honest, I lost count after just 6 months in Tokyo :s13:

I really want to scold you but I will control myself.

"I can help you buy stuff available only in Japan. Just send me a private message. "

Like that can avoid paying Tenso's handling fee...
 

strangerjun

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like that the opec deal is like rain after drought. should turbo many stocks tomorrow..
 
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MasterLeong

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Casualties to date
1. Technics Oil & Gas
 Offshore services provider – integrated compression systems and
process modules, amongst others
 Filed for judicial management in end May 2016
 Net gearing of 0.49x as of Mar 2016 was below sector average
 Main banker: UOB
2. Linc Energy
 Upstream E&P – Unconventional gas, coal deposits
 Delisted from the ASX to float on the SGX in late 2013
 Entered into voluntary administration in Apr 2016
3. Lime Petroleum
 Upstream E&P with exploration licenses
 65% owned by SGX-listed Rex International, 35% by Gulf Hibiscus,
subsidiary of Malaysian-listed Hibiscus Petroleum
 Filed for winding up application on Mar 2016
4. Swiber Holdings
 Offshore Engineering, Procurement, Commissioning (EPC) provider
 Winding up application on 28 Jul 2016
 Main bankers:
i. DBS - US$736m
ii. China Devt Bank – US$131m
iii. ICICI Bank (India) – US$51m
iv. UOB: US$35m
5. Swissco Holdings
 Engaged in vessel and rig chartering, as well as repair
 Owes S$255m to seven banks
a. UOB is the largest lender
b. Followed by DBS
 Debt restructuring plan went into a stalemate as lenders were
unwilling to take a substantial hair cut in a proposal tabled by a
Chinese investor
 Filed for interim judicial management in Nov 2016
Those with bonds that have undergone/undergoing restructuring
1. Ausgroup
 Provides fabrication, construction and maintenance services to
natural resources sectors in Australia and Asia
 Main banker: DBS
 S$110m, 7.45% notes due Oct 2016 restructured as follows:
o Maturity date extended till Oct 2018, with possibility of
another 12 month extension (to be approved)
o Interest rate from Oct 2016 to Oct 2017 – increased to
7.95% p.a.
o Interest rate from Oct 2017 to Oct 2018 – increased to
8.45% p.a.
 Relatively easier to restructure as the group has assets (Port
Melville) as a form of security
2. Rickmers Maritime
 A business trust which owns and operates containerships
 Main banker: Eight banks listed in 2015 Annual report
including DBS and HSBC
OCBC Investment Research
Singapore Equities
17
 S$100m, 8.45% notes due May 2017 proposed to be
restructured as follows:
o Redeem S$60m principal with issue of 1.32b new units
o S$40m outstanding repayable in 2023 with step-up
coupon rates
o Special upfront coupon payment of S$500k to be paid
to noteholders
 Restructuring of other debt with lenders still ongoing
3. Marco Polo Marine
 Engages in shipbuilding, repair and chartering of OSVs and
tugs and barges
 Bankers include OCBC
 S$50m, 5.75% notes due Oct 2016 restructured as follows:
o Maturity date extended till Oct 2019
o Additional interest of 1.5% p.a.; additional interest
payable in two instalments
 Relatively easier to restructure as the group has assets as a
form of security (noteholders get second ranking mortgage
over Batam shipyard land)
4. KrisEnergy
 Independent upstream company focused on production and
development of oil and gas in SE Asia
 Company’s revolving credit facility transferred to single lender,
DBS from a few banks including HSBC and ANZ in the middle
of this year
 S$130m, 6.25% notes due Jun 2017 and S$200m 5.75%
notes due Aug 2018 currently undergoing restructuring
 The group has obtained the support of Keppel Corporation, its
major shareholder to underwrite a preferential offering
(S$140m of senior zero coupon notes with warrants for future
upside potential)
5. Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Bhd
 Kuala-Lumpur listed offshore services firm that is an associate
of Ezra Holdings
 Has been classified as a Practice Note 17 (PN17) company i.e.
insolvent
 Previous attempts to negotiate with bondholders had failed
 In order to maintain its Bursa listing, it must regularise its
financial position within 12 months
6. Ezra Holdings
 Engages in OSV chartering, offshore fabrication, and subsea
work
 S$150m, 4.875% notes due Apr 2018
o Waive any breach or potential breach of covenants
o Waive occurance of any event of default or potential
event of default, amongst others
7. Pacific Radiance
 Engages in OSV chartering, repair
 S$100m, 4.3% bond due Aug 2018
 Loosened debt covenants of bonds (S$100m 4.3% due 2018)
last year
 Has not undergone major restructuring of bonds besides this
 

Maeda_Toshiie

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Maybe... but while they are waiting, look at this.
The oil prices totally decimated Venezuela's economy since 95% of their exports are made of oil. GG max.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...valued-shop-keepers-weigh-notes-a7443596.html

Maduro is trying to keep Chavez's legacy alive. For now.


My thoughts on oil:

1. Oil price is a matter of supply and demand. With shale on hand (their lead time to increase supply is very fast compared to "traditional oil"), there is a glut and the softness in demand (esp. China and India) makes it difficult to eat up the additional supply. The lowering of breakeven price for US shale worsens the situation (note that the US shale breakeven price varies across different fields and even within fields due to differing conditions). The only potential upside is fiscal stimulus on the US side under Trump to increase energy consumption, which will help with the balancing. However, I feel that a sustained >$60 oil is still difficult to achieve in 2017 (NOTE THAT THIS IS NOT A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS). This is the short term view on oil price.

2. In the mid term, the drastic cutting of CAPEX by big oil can cause a potential hiccup in oil supply. CAPEX is needed to maintain oil supply. I don't have the figures, but it can cause a substantial reduction in supply that will cause oil prices to spike, even with shale on hand. This is the mid term view on oil price.

3. Another major question is the strength of the correlation b/w oil price and KC/SMM/SCI stock prices. Technically, oil prices should not matter as much as their order book. Oil price may cause momentary upswings based on sentiments, but sustained increases (30%-50% ??) in their order book will be necessary to sustain their share prices at higher levels.

tl;dr ver: I only see a very slow recovery towards $6-$6.5 for KC (vested, 2000 @ 5.40) with potential volatility due to volatility in oil prices.

Caveat emptor. I am not a stock analyst.
 
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