Maduro is trying to keep Chavez's legacy alive. For now.
My thoughts on oil:
1. Oil price is a matter of supply and demand. With shale on hand (their lead time to increase supply is very fast compared to "traditional oil"), there is a glut and the softness in demand (esp. China and India) makes it difficult to eat up the additional supply. The lowering of breakeven price for US shale worsens the situation (note that the US shale breakeven price varies across different fields and even within fields due to differing conditions). The only potential upside is fiscal stimulus on the US side under Trump to increase energy consumption, which will help with the balancing. However, I feel that a sustained >$60 oil is still difficult to achieve in 2017 (NOTE THAT THIS IS NOT A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS). This is the short term view on oil price.
2. In the mid term, the drastic cutting of CAPEX by big oil can cause a potential hiccup in oil supply. CAPEX is needed to maintain oil supply. I don't have the figures, but it can cause a substantial reduction in supply that will cause oil prices to spike, even with shale on hand. This is the mid term view on oil price.
3. Another major question is the strength of the correlation b/w oil price and KC/SMM/SCI stock prices. Technically, oil prices should not matter as much as their order book. Oil price may cause momentary upswings based on sentiments, but sustained increases (30%-50% ??) in their order book will be necessary to sustain their share prices at higher levels.
tl;dr ver: I only see a very slow recovery towards $6-$6.5 for KC (vested, 2000 @ 5.40) with potential volatility due to volatility in oil prices.
Caveat emptor. I am not a stock analyst.
