*Official* MasterLeong Thread

[MasterLeong]

year end the funds may do some window dressing... so see how they do the closing on last trading day 30 dec friday

 

[caltex88]

SCI and KC still pretty weak, pretty lucky that I sold 2 out previously like i mentioned to lock in profits and move into reits

Bo jio... Haha... Jk

 

[homer123]

Everything change after 2008 GFC..that why FED only dare to have 2 hikes in 10 years !!

during 2005-2007, there were more than 3 rate hikes, US and SG stock markets rallied to all-time highs

just some food for thought

 

[Takodoro]

during 2005-2007, there were more than 3 rate hikes, US and SG stock markets rallied to all-time highs

just some food for thought

The hike ultimately resulted in property loan burst which trigger GFC.

Will history repeat itself? Regulations keep changing, but greed knows no bound.

 

[akwl88]

rate hiking priming for another GFC down the road?

or is the world well prepared and learn their lessons?

 

[MasterLeong]

during 2005-2007, there were more than 3 rate hikes, US and SG stock markets rallied to all-time highs

just some food for thought

yup I remember there was like 2-3 years period in which they hiked 0.25% during each meeting

rates rose sharply to around 4-5% before the greatest crashed happened

 

[MasterLeong]

The hike ultimately resulted in property loan burst which trigger GFC.

Will history repeat itself? Regulations keep changing, but greed knows no bound.

the market will eventually crash again but no one will know when and what will cause it

like how we didn't expect the global financial crisis in 2007, the european crisis in 2011 and how we didnt expect the oil crisis in 2015

what I can only say is that the oil crisis already caused a 30% decline for the sti from 3500 to 2500 levels.. so from 2015-2017... i think its unlikely for us to see another 30% decline so quickly
but in the longer run say 2018 and beyond... we would surely see another 20% correction or more for sure... eventually and surely...


this does not mean we should stay away from the market... but rather to take a balance approach of having stocks to collect dividends and some cash on the side to purchase on a fire sale

Cheers

 

[lewissac]

Seems most SSI forumer regarded the Fed rate hike brings more bad than good to their investment.

I wondered why.... though I'm a believer that rate hike is good for long term.

 

[Takodoro]

the market will eventually crash again but no one will know when and what will cause it

like how we didn't expect the global financial crisis in 2007, the european crisis in 2011 and how we didnt expect the oil crisis in 2015

what I can only say is that the oil crisis already caused a 30% decline for the sti from 3500 to 2500 levels.. so from 2015-2017... i think its unlikely for us to see another 30% decline so quickly
but in the longer run say 2018 and beyond... we would surely see another 20% correction or more for sure... eventually and surely...


this does not mean we should stay away from the market... but rather to take a balance approach of having stocks to collect dividends and some cash on the side to purchase on a fire sale

Cheers

3500 --> 2500 is 40% decline.

Anyway, I feel 3500 is outliner. 3200 should be the norm. 3200 --> 2500 = close to 28% decline.

Sorry I am being anal here, but I think there is a big difference between 3500 and 3200......

 

[Genosis]

rate hiking priming for another GFC down the road?

or is the world well prepared and learn their lessons?

I think the world has not forgotten the lessons of 2008 GFC.....the collapse of Lehman Brothers is still pretty fresh on people's memories....those investors who were burnt badly by that crisis are still alive today, telling their horror stories to the young

There will be market corrections or dips but another GFC on the massive scale of 2008's magnitude will take 1 generation (30 years?) later when most people have become complacent and our grandchildren only hear about the 2008 GFC on history channel

 

[Mancunian2]

yup I remember there was like 2-3 years period in which they hiked 0.25% during each meeting

rates rose sharply to around 4-5% before the greatest crashed happened

and before that in 1994-95, also rate hike cycle
DJIA also rose to record highs, along with a developing dot.com bubble in Nasdaq


my point is rate hikes usually comes with a booming economy, and stock markets tend to boom alongside

 

[akwl88]

I think the world has not forgotten the lessons of 2008 GFC.....the collapse of Lehman Brothers is still pretty fresh on people's memories....those investors who were burnt badly by that crisis are still alive today, telling their horror stories to the young

There will be market corrections or dips but another GFC on the massive scale of 2008's magnitude will take 1 generation (30 years?) later when most people have become complacent and our grandchildren only hear about the 2008 GFC on history channel

30 years later we still here

 

[Genosis]

30 years later we still here

Ya.....but by then, most of our assets should oredi be in bonds & fixed deposits

 

[MasterLeong]

3500 --> 2500 is 40% decline.

Anyway, I feel 3500 is outliner. 3200 should be the norm. 3200 --> 2500 = close to 28% decline.

Sorry I am being anal here, but I think there is a big difference between 3500 and 3200......

1000/3500 is 28.5% decline, thats how we count it

do not use 1000/2500 lol lol lol

 

[Genosis]

and before that in 1994-95, also rate hike cycle
DJIA also rose to record highs, along with a developing dot.com bubble in Nasdaq


my point is rate hikes usually comes with a booming economy, and stock markets tend to boom alongside

Ya.....and a booming economy comes with healthy inflation

Loving PLife's CPI+1% lease structure!!! Woooo...

http://plifereit.com/about/rentreview.asp

 

[akwl88]

the window dressing is strong today

almost every counter is green except for UOB

 

[Takodoro]

the window dressing is strong today

almost every counter is green except for UOB

Suddenly UOB advertisement keep playing in my mind.

 

[MasterLeong]

Seems most SSI forumer regarded the Fed rate hike brings more bad than good to their investment.

I wondered why.... though I'm a believer that rate hike is good for long term.

yup, fundamentally US is recovering very well... their economy is moving on while singapore is slowing down

 

[MasterLeong]

anyone here will be attending the coming FCT agm? its on jan 20 i think

 

[blackvice]

yup, fundamentally US is recovering very well... their economy is moving on while singapore is slowing down

Sg depends too much on fts...