*Official* MasterLeong Thread

[Genosis]

Not just indonesia wor. Just overseas in general. Look at his recent purchases.

With his house and career oredi rooted in Singapore, I guess he wants more geographical diversification......probably also planning ahead for his young kids

By the time his kids grow up, Singapore might oredi be firmly on the downtrend liao .....while the other SEA nations with younger populations are still growing

 

[MasterLeong]

http://foreverfinancialfreedom.blogspot.sg/2016/12/recent-action-lmirt.html

seems like he likes those high yield and discount to book picks but without strong track from sponsor

personally i would avoid lippo mall trust.. they always do rights issue untill buay tahan one

do note that for his style... even for reits he will fifo, like what he did with FCT a few times

 

[MasterLeong]

Only 2.03 from latest qtr report. Those who wants to know better check themselves.

http://www.sharesinv.com/A17U/

dunno why their numbers always not accurate, gg max

 

[Genosis]

Only 2.03 from latest qtr report. Those who wants to know better check themselves.

Ya......I always check from their latest presentation slides

 

[MasterLeong]

With his house and career oredi rooted in Singapore, I guess he wants more geographical diversification......probably also planning ahead for his young kids

By the time his kids grow up, Singapore might oredi be firmly on the downtrend liao .....while the other SEA nations with younger populations are still growing

wah u so bearish on singapore ah

I feel that long term singapore still better than msia and indonesia ba, at least for me in the next 3 decades or so

many famous and rich people got buy property to live long term in singapore, for retirement its a good place for sure... healthcare is top notch and very safe compared to other parts of asia

just that costs will only get higher, so must prepare more money for retirement

 

[MasterLeong]

Only 2.03 from latest qtr report. Those who wants to know better check themselves.

like that A reit seems expensive at current price

no $2.05/2.10 no buy hahahaha

 

[MasterLeong]

http://foreverfinancialfreedom.blogspot.sg/2016/12/recent-action-lmirt.html

seems like he likes those high yield and discount to book picks but without strong track from sponsor

personally i would avoid lippo mall trust.. they always do rights issue untill buay tahan one

do note that for his style... even for reits he will fifo, like what he did with FCT a few times

that's why i often try to avoid overseas assets, you cannot see and feel.. u dunno how is it like on the ground


"GarkDecember 28, 2016 at 6:27 PM
I have worked and lived in Indonesia as an expatriate for the past 15 years. I fully agree on what you say about the macro economics is true, and there is good future for IDR which is heavily beaten down during the past few years. Also a fast growing middle class population will grow consumption rapidly. I have visited most of the malls around Indonesia (blame the significant other, haha) so I have more hands on observation.

However while the economics of the country is on the mend, I have previously analyzed LMIR assets and I noticed that it is mostly consists of B or C class malls except for a few significant ones like sun plaza and pluit village. Most of these malls are old and not much effort is put into AEI's thus they are slowing losing quality tenants. Even sun plaza is being overshadowed by Medan newly built Centrepoint mall.

What you say about hefty rental revision is true as property prices went up about 200-300% during the last five years (together with >10% yearly inflation) but it is no longer the case. Future will bring the rental revision down as the current inflationary pressures have tapered out.

I have reviewed the Kuta plaza acquisition, and I am not impressed. The occupancy is still low, but lippo is giving income support to push the property to the trust. Again, in Kuta, this is considered a B class mall as well, with it's significant other competition (eg. Beachwalk & Discovery mall, which is by the seaside).

While I would still like exposure to the growing middle class consumption in Indonesia, I think 9% yield is not significant enough for the quality of assets and would prefer to have a higher yield to compensate for the risk."

 

[MasterLeong]

for reits, I still prefer to own mostly SG based one... can ownself see and visit those shopping malls and offices

same as you yourself being a landlord

would you rather own 3 condos in singapore?

or 1 condo in sg, 2 in msia and 2 in indonesia?

 

[Genosis]

wah u so bearish on singapore ah

I feel that long term singapore still better than msia and indonesia ba, at least for me in the next 3 decades or so

many famous and rich people got buy property to live long term in singapore, for retirement its a good place for sure... healthcare is top notch and very safe compared to other parts of asia

just that costs will only get higher, so must prepare more money for retirement

As a place for safe retirement and healthcare, Singapore is great.....

But in terms of economic growth.....I am not so optimistic

By 2030, 1 in 4 Singaporeans will be 65 years or above the only hope is to keep these old people in the workforce lor or switch more jobs to automation

https://population.sg/articles/older-singaporeans-to-double-by-2030

Dun get me wrong, I am not saying Singapore will collapse.....but it will be on a slow downtrend, we just have to try our best to make this decline as gradual and painless as possible

Parents who invest earlier for their kids will give their children a decent headstart...

 

[Squaredot]

Below 1.40 can nibble IMO..... DYODD

That's now hehe

 

[Takodoro]

wah u so bearish on singapore ah

I feel that long term singapore still better than msia and indonesia ba, at least for me in the next 3 decades or so

many famous and rich people got buy property to live long term in singapore, for retirement its a good place for sure... healthcare is top notch and very safe compared to other parts of asia

just that costs will only get higher, so must prepare more money for retirement

Politics is really important for long-term....MIW is not skati....but they are much better than their Malaysia and Indonesia counterpart....

Previous Indonesia president is quite decent...Jonker not much visible results. Hope he don't turn into joker (no offence to fellow Indonesians)

Malaysia is always a joke with Najib. (no office to fellow Malaysians)

If Indonesia/Malaysia politicians can get their act right, they would be more prosper than Singapore for sure. But right now, I would say Jakarta seems like 20~25 years behind Singapore while KL is like 10~15 years behind Singapore.

Last visit to Jakarta at 2016. Last visit to KL at 2014.

 

[Mancunian2]

what is your opinion on this?

This will be a quick update on my latest addition to the portfolio as I tried to allocate some capital from the profits made on Spackman sold this week.

I added 80,000 shares of LMIRT at a price of $0.37. My rough calculation tells me that's about 9% yield on the dividend.

People who know me knows that I used to work as an employee there so I'd probably not talk too much about the specifics operational performance of the company.

CEO Alvin has also since then left and is currently vacated temporarily by Albert Cheok.

The main reason I'm buying this right now is I am predicting a few phases of growth in the next couple of years, both in terms of micro and macro.
Macro Factors

The tax amnesty reform is a super huge thing that happened across in 2016 for all Indonesians. These amount of money will be used for fiscal policies in improving the infrastructure of the country.

GDP growth seemed to bottom in 2016 and has seen a reversal in the last 3 quarters and expected to drive up further in 2017 and 2018.

The rupiah currency has also seen some strengthening as a result of this reform.




The government has introduced a string of reform policies in a bid to build up the economy back and they streamline and welcome foreign investment into the country.

Central bank has also eased rates and required reserves for helping the economy to pick up.


Micro Factors

Operationally, rental reversions continued to be strong over the last 20 quarters and is expected to pick up even further in 2017 and 2018 as economy picks up.

The company has 23% of the lease that needs to be renewed in 2017, so I see this as a positive growth which will contribute to the bottomline.



The company has bonds and term loans that ranges from 3% to 5.18% with a weighted average expiry of 2 years. The company has recently acted by issuing a perpetual bond to refinance the existing term loan expiry albeit at a higher yield since this is classified under the equity portion of the balance sheet. Interest costs will reduce as a result but distribution will have to be considered for these perpetual security shareholders.

Summary

I am not expecting too much for this other than for the dividend yield and the natural growth from the organic portfolio.

This would fall under the 9 + 2% strategy, at least of what I see in 2017 and 2018.

I'll review again every quarter of the performance and development.

Thanks for reading.

http://foreverfinancialfreedom.blogspot.sg/2016/12/recent-action-lmirt.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+APathToForeverFinancialFreedom3fs+(A+Path+to+Forever+Financial+Freedom+(3Fs))

 

[MasterLeong]

As a place for safe retirement and healthcare, Singapore is great.....

But in terms of economic growth.....I am not so optimistic

By 2030, 1 in 4 Singaporeans will be 65 years or above the only hope is to keep these old people in the workforce lor or switch more jobs to automation

https://population.sg/articles/older-singaporeans-to-double-by-2030

Dun get me wrong, I am not saying Singapore will collapse.....but it will be on a slow downtrend, we just have to try our best to make this decline as gradual and painless as possible

Parents who invest earlier for their kids will give their children a decent headstart...

feels like we will soon be like japan, lost decade with too much old folks dragging the economy

 

[MasterLeong]

Politics is really important for long-term....MIW is not skati....but they are much better than their Malaysia and Indonesia counterpart....

Previous Indonesia president is quite decent...Jonker not much visible results. Hope he don't turn into joker (no offence to fellow Indonesians)

Malaysia is always a joke with Najib. (no office to fellow Malaysians)

If Indonesia/Malaysia politicians can get their act right, they would be more prosper than Singapore for sure. But right now, I would say Jakarta seems like 20~25 years behind Singapore while KL is like 10~15 years behind Singapore.

Last visit to Jakarta at 2016. Last visit to KL at 2014.

yup jakarta and KL still way behind SG, maybe 1-2 decades time they can catch up if SG slows down too much

of the whole asia... I still will want to be in SG

if we too negative on SG, where else can we move to live in asia? lol

 

[MasterLeong]

This will be a quick update on my latest addition to the portfolio as I tried to allocate some capital from the profits made on Spackman sold this week.

I added 80,000 shares of LMIRT at a price of $0.37. My rough calculation tells me that's about 9% yield on the dividend.

People who know me knows that I used to work as an employee there so I'd probably not talk too much about the specifics operational performance of the company.

CEO Alvin has also since then left and is currently vacated temporarily by Albert Cheok.

The main reason I'm buying this right now is I am predicting a few phases of growth in the next couple of years, both in terms of micro and macro.
Macro Factors

The tax amnesty reform is a super huge thing that happened across in 2016 for all Indonesians. These amount of money will be used for fiscal policies in improving the infrastructure of the country.

GDP growth seemed to bottom in 2016 and has seen a reversal in the last 3 quarters and expected to drive up further in 2017 and 2018.

The rupiah currency has also seen some strengthening as a result of this reform.




The government has introduced a string of reform policies in a bid to build up the economy back and they streamline and welcome foreign investment into the country.

Central bank has also eased rates and required reserves for helping the economy to pick up.


Micro Factors

Operationally, rental reversions continued to be strong over the last 20 quarters and is expected to pick up even further in 2017 and 2018 as economy picks up.

The company has 23% of the lease that needs to be renewed in 2017, so I see this as a positive growth which will contribute to the bottomline.



The company has bonds and term loans that ranges from 3% to 5.18% with a weighted average expiry of 2 years. The company has recently acted by issuing a perpetual bond to refinance the existing term loan expiry albeit at a higher yield since this is classified under the equity portion of the balance sheet. Interest costs will reduce as a result but distribution will have to be considered for these perpetual security shareholders.

Summary

I am not expecting too much for this other than for the dividend yield and the natural growth from the organic portfolio.

This would fall under the 9 + 2% strategy, at least of what I see in 2017 and 2018.

I'll review again every quarter of the performance and development.

Thanks for reading.

http://foreverfinancialfreedom.blogspot.sg/2016/12/recent-action-lmirt.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+APathToForeverFinancialFreedom3fs+(A+Path+to+Forever+Financial+Freedom+(3Fs))

I respect 3FS a lot, but I would avoid this reit... it has a bad track record and overseas assets... cannot see

on the positive side the 9% yield is very very very attractive

cheers

 

[Takodoro]

feels like we will soon be like japan, lost decade with too much old folks dragging the economy

We can also be like HK....open leg to Malaysia via High Speed Rail.

The only problem is HK belongs to China....

 

[Genosis]

I avoid LMIR mainly bcos of the rather frequent rights issues in the past which are dilutive.....

that's why i often try to avoid overseas assets, you cannot see and feel.. u dunno how is it like on the ground


"GarkDecember 28, 2016 at 6:27 PM
I have worked and lived in Indonesia as an expatriate for the past 15 years. I fully agree on what you say about the macro economics is true, and there is good future for IDR which is heavily beaten down during the past few years. Also a fast growing middle class population will grow consumption rapidly. I have visited most of the malls around Indonesia (blame the significant other, haha) so I have more hands on observation.

However while the economics of the country is on the mend, I have previously analyzed LMIR assets and I noticed that it is mostly consists of B or C class malls except for a few significant ones like sun plaza and pluit village. Most of these malls are old and not much effort is put into AEI's thus they are slowing losing quality tenants. Even sun plaza is being overshadowed by Medan newly built Centrepoint mall.

What you say about hefty rental revision is true as property prices went up about 200-300% during the last five years (together with >10% yearly inflation) but it is no longer the case. Future will bring the rental revision down as the current inflationary pressures have tapered out.

I have reviewed the Kuta plaza acquisition, and I am not impressed. The occupancy is still low, but lippo is giving income support to push the property to the trust. Again, in Kuta, this is considered a B class mall as well, with it's significant other competition (eg. Beachwalk & Discovery mall, which is by the seaside).

While I would still like exposure to the growing middle class consumption in Indonesia, I think 9% yield is not significant enough for the quality of assets and would prefer to have a higher yield to compensate for the risk."

 

[Mancunian2]

I respect 3FS a lot, but I would avoid this reit... it has a bad track record and overseas assets... cannot see

on the positive side the 9% yield is very very very attractive

cheers

I bought it at 39.5 cts in Jan 2012, yield was almost 10% then

now 37 cts, yield dropped to 9%

how can this be attractive

 

[Genosis]

feels like we will soon be like japan, lost decade with too much old folks dragging the economy

The silver lining is that Japan oredi show us a dress-rehearsal, so hopefully Singapore can come up with better solutions/policies to counter the problems......we can adopt some strategies from the Scandinavian countries

 

[Genosis]

yup jakarta and KL still way behind SG, maybe 1-2 decades time they can catch up if SG slows down too much

of the whole asia... I still will want to be in SG

if we too negative on SG, where else can we move to live in asia? lol

SG still has its strengths, so we must leverage on our strengths......we have stability, human talent, solid regulatory framework, wealthy govt and efficient execution of plans