[OFFICIAL] S&P 500 Market Watch

[Trader11]

Can you track Nasdaq as well?

 

[aurvandil]

Can you track Nasdaq as well?

Apologies but I only trade the ES futures and options. I follow the NQ but I don't trade it and know it well enough to write a commentary. This is a life lessson from my short time in the SIMEX pits when I saw that the locals making the most money were those that specialised in one contract.

 

[jinsatkilife]

For footprint charts, what are you using to view them in real time? eg sierra

Any suggestions on free software for delayed data (since market data usually the most expensive)? eg motionwave

 

[aurvandil]

For footprint charts, what are you using to view them in real time? eg sierra

Any suggestions on free software for delayed data (since market data usually the most expensive)? eg motionwave

Since I only trade 1 instrument, my data costs are not much relative to the size I am doing. I have a Level 2 data feed from CME and also Level 2 IBKR as a back up.

On software, I am using Trading View with my own customised pine script. Trading View is nice and cheap and I find the pine script flexible enough to implement whatever that I want to do. If you know how to code, this is probably the cheapest option in the market. If you are not familiar with coding, there is fairly large developer community that you can contact to comission customised tools for your use.

 

[condovshdb]

Since I only trade 1 instrument, my data costs are not much relative to the size I am doing. I have a Level 2 data feed from CME and also Level 2 IBKR as a back up.

On software, I am using Trading View with my own customised pine script. Trading View is nice and cheap and I find the pine script flexible enough to implement whatever that I want to do. If you know how to code, this is probably the cheapest option in the market. If you are not familiar with coding, there is fairly large developer community that you can contact to comission customised tools for your use.

Wish tick data on TV was were more affordable

you ever thought about moving your trading elsewhere?

I don’t like how IBKR raises futures margin requirements more often than other brokers.

 

[aurvandil]

Monday 01 Jul 24

A sharp excess high was observed from a failed attempt to breach the 5588 ATH at market open on Friday. This excess high resulted in a sharp reversal, pushing the market to a low of 5510.75 before recovering to settle at 5521.50. The market has since recovered back to the halfback level of 5538.75.

The push down on Friday was attributed to a sell-off in the 30-year bonds, causing a significant spike in yields across the entire yield curve. There was no significant macro news driving this movement; rather, the sell-off was largely attributed to bond fund rebalancing for the end of the first half in a very thin market on Friday.

For those long the S&P, the sharp reversal is not something you would want to see. Ideally, market should be ending the final session strong with perhaps a fresh ATH. Given that we are back to the halfback, now might be a good time to lighten up on some delta and adopt a more defensive posture. We are headed into a period with fairly heavy event risk (NFP, CPI, earnings), starting with the NFP on Friday. Between now and NFP, we have the key 4th of July holiday on Thursday. The expectation is for a choppy, thin, sideways market heading into NFP.

 

[aurvandil]

Wish tick data on TV was were more affordable

you ever thought about moving your trading elsewhere?

I don’t like how IBKR raises futures margin requirements more often than other brokers.

I don't really chase cheaper commissions and lower margins.
For me, counter party risk is very important which is why I am with IBKR.

 

[aurvandil]

Tuesday 02 Jul 24

The bull run appears to be over for the moment, with tentative signs that the market is about to roll over. The market probed below Friday's low of 5510.75 but managed to pull back up. However, the pullback was not robust, and we are trading below the 5538.75 halfback. The 5588 ATH is not yet secure. If the market breaks below 5500, we will have a secure short-term top.

The market pushdown is being driven by the bond market, with yields spiking across the entire curve. The bond market appears to be repricing in anticipation that, after declining in June, inflation might tick back higher in July. This puts the two rate cuts currently priced in for this year into question. There is currently a divergence between the stock market and the bond market. Historically, in such divergences, the bond market usually prevails 70% of the time.

The expectation is for continued weakness with the possibility of a sell-off if it becomes clear we are making a rounded top. Upcoming NFP and CPI data will be crucial in determining whether the bond market or the stock market is correct.

 

[DevilPlate]

Tuesday 02 Jul 24

The bull run appears to be over for the moment, with tentative signs that the market is about to roll over. The market probed below Friday's low of 5510.75 but managed to pull back up. However, the pullback was not robust, and we are trading below the 5538.75 halfback. The 5588 ATH is not yet secure. If the market breaks below 5500, we will have a secure short-term top.

The market pushdown is being driven by the bond market, with yields spiking across the entire curve. The bond market appears to be repricing in anticipation that, after declining in June, inflation might tick back higher in July. This puts the two rate cuts currently priced in for this year into question. There is currently a divergence between the stock market and the bond market. Historically, in such divergences, the bond market usually prevails 70% of the time.

The expectation is for continued weakness with the possibility of a sell-off if it becomes clear we are making a rounded top. Upcoming NFP and CPI data will be crucial in determining whether the bond market or the stock market is correct.

Some say bond yield spike due to falling Yen

 

[jinsatkilife]

Do u have any thoughts why wild price swings happen during last 10 mins of every session recently?

This has not happened as wildly for the past years

What's the cause and why now?

 

[aurvandil]

What's the cause and why now?

Just MoC orders by the institutions. This is impossible to predict and trade off for a retail trader.
The HST are the only ones that make their money trading off this by using access to privileged order flow and speed of connection.

 

[aurvandil]

Wednesday 03 Jul 24

Yet another sharp market reversal occurred, this time driven by guidance from Powell. He made it very clear to the bond market where the FED wants rates to go.

In terms of levels, we have a short-term bottom at 5500. The market has tested this level 6 times since June 25. It is not yet secure but will become so once we break the 5588 ATH. This then forms a good base for the market to rally from. With yesterday's reversal, a retest of of the 5588 seems imminent. This will be the market's 3rd attempt and hopefully we succeed. Above 5588, 5650 remains the key level to watch.

There is a lot of event risk ahead of us. While the reversal is a good sign, it is best not to get too overextended. The expectation is for NFP to show high job creation but higher unemployment due to the expansion of labor participation. CPI has the potential to come in hotter than expected, which was driving the recent spike in Treasury yields. Powell's comments yesterday signaled to the market that things are not so bad and the first cut in September is very much on the table. Earnings wise, we should see an decent quarter on the whole. GDP is holding up very well and that is a fairly reliable leading indicator of what earnings as a whole is going to look like.

 

[Wanderer123]

"We're looking forward to the bull run lifting" the S&P 500 index to 6,000 by the end of 2025, and to 6,500 by the finish of 2026, researchers at the firm wrote." Agree? What if Middle east war worsens or AI bubble bursts?

https://www.morningstar.com/news/ma...sp-500-sectors-swell-to-pre-tech-wreck-levels

https://www.morningstar.com/news/ma...-dominate-the-world-what-happens-if-it-bursts

 

[hyperfuse]

Hi everyone. I am a total noob in investing. Got a question, pardon my lack of knowledge.

Previously in year 2022, I bought a small but lump sum of CSPX that tracks the S&P 500 in the LSE via interactive brokers.

I have thought of doing another lump sum into Interactive brokers so that I can buy more shares of CSPX.

However currently it's a bull market and CSPX is at its all time high. Yes I know I cannot time the market, full aware of it and yes I know one can DCA, but I prefer to just lump sum in instead of incurring fees every month to DCA in. And if it's an uptrend, I prefer to just lump sum in and just leave it there for 20 years or longer.

Question is, I am aware that IBKR has interest rates for your monies in USD that is sitting in the IBKR "wallet". I plan to put another lump sum sgd in and convert to USD and put it there. Once the CSPX dips a little, I shall just buy in. Can I know what is the amount that will garner this interest of 4.83 percent on the USD balances? I saw on the website, it shows amount more than 100k usd? I also saw another section saying it's more than 10k usd. So abit confuse. Anyone knows what is the minimum amount that will get that propose interest rate just buy leaving the monies in USD in IBKR?

 

[jacky5297]

Hi everyone. I am a total noob in investing. Got a question, pardon my lack of knowledge.

Previously in year 2022, I bought a small but lump sum of CSPX that tracks the S&P 500 in the LSE via interactive brokers.

I have thought of doing another lump sum into Interactive brokers so that I can buy more shares of CSPX.

However currently it's a bull market and CSPX is at its all time high. Yes I know I cannot time the market, full aware of it and yes I know one can DCA, but I prefer to just lump sum in instead of incurring fees every month to DCA in. And if it's an uptrend, I prefer to just lump sum in and just leave it there for 20 years or longer.

Question is, I am aware that IBKR has interest rates for your monies in USD that is sitting in the IBKR "wallet". I plan to put another lump sum sgd in and convert to USD and put it there. Once the CSPX dips a little, I shall just buy in. Can I know what is the amount that will garner this interest of 4.83 percent on the USD balances? I saw on the website, it shows amount more than 100k usd? I also saw another section saying it's more than 10k usd. So abit confuse. Anyone knows what is the minimum amount that will get that propose interest rate just buy leaving the monies in USD in IBKR?

Only excess above 10k USD earns interest.
What you are doing is exactly timing the market. Your networth will be so much higher if you DCA from 2022.

 

[hyperfuse]

Only excess above 10k USD earns interest.
What you are doing is exactly timing the market. Your networth will be so much higher if you DCA from 2022.

Not quite though.

I lump sum in on 2022 and I checked. If I had dca small sums in 2022 vs lump sum in, the dca has lesser profits as compared to lump sum as it had been on an uptrend since 2022 though.

 

[sohguanh]

Not quite though.

I lump sum in on 2022 and I checked. If I had dca small sums in 2022 vs lump sum in, the dca has lesser profits as compared to lump sum as it had been on an uptrend since 2022 though.

That is why I always posted timing is bad but not always. It really depends as I experienced myself. E.g my cpf investment restarted late last year after stop for a few years. If I have DCA all that few bad years I don't think my current green colour is very green colour.

 

[hyperfuse]

That is why I always posted timing is bad but not always. It really depends as I experienced myself. E.g my cpf investment restarted late last year after stop for a few years. If I have DCA all that few bad years I don't think my current green colour is very green colour.

Exactly. Dca can be profitable but if it had always been uptrend, sometimes lump sum in at a lower price for sure beats out someone who dca small sums.

 

[sohguanh]

Exactly. Dca can be profitable but if it had always been uptrend, sometimes lump sum in at a lower price for sure beats out someone who dca small sums.

Same concept like what school taught us then in real life working what we learn not always true and those lessons we learnt on the job are then called experience after many years and those are what school never teach

 

[BoringStuff]

Do u have any thoughts why wild price swings happen during last 10 mins of every session recently?

This has not happened as wildly for the past years

What's the cause and why now?

0dte is the reason
Jskm