With gold and silver surging towards new heights, it slowly dawns on the hwz investing community that the path to riches was in a user’s name all along... Hidden in plain sight. And that name, is Shiny Things.
Not gonna lie, I LOLed.
Firstly, for anyone who thinks “Shiny Things” is a precious metals reference,
go look at my Twitter if you want my opinion on gold. Gold is a terrible long-term investment (especially if you buy it up here!) and goldbugs are idiots. If anyone comes in here shilling the yellow metal (or, worse, the white metal), I will mock you relentlessly.
What moves gold...
1. Sentiment....like all other asset class. It is not a reliable hedge of inflation or a safe haven class.
If it’s an expected future inflation rise, gold will not rise N likely to drop significantly because it is expected interest rate will rise. Interest rate rise causes usd to rise hence weakens gold.
I’d keep it even simpler: it’s 100% sentiment. Gold’s a rock; it’s only worth what someone else will pay for it.
That said, that sentiment is at least partly driven by US real interest rates (which are low right now, so shiny yellow rocks become relatively more attractive) and partly by momentum. I reckon with those two terms you could come up with a pretty good model of the price of the yellow rock.
Correct me if i'm wrong but from what I have read so far, it would not make sense to buy SG stocks/bonds if I intend to retire overseas eventually, therefore what should I invest in, in place of the SG stocks/bonds component? Thanks.
Yep. If you’re not planning to retire in Singapore, you can either:
* Replace the SG stocks and bonds components with the stocks and bonds from the country you’re planning to retire to; or,
* If you don’t know where you’re going to retire, you can just use LQDA for the bonds, and put your entire equity allocation into IWDA.
Hi Shiny,
I saw in your Rich by Retirement book that the Internal Revenue Service—the US tax authority—imposes very strict rules on US taxpayers who invest in stocks or ETFs that are listed outside the USA. For myself, I am due to relocate to the US in the near future for my employment and I would expect to be working in the US for a number of years once the relocation happens. In that case, would it still make sense for me to buy the London-listed ETFs such as IWDA/VWRA right now? Otherwise, what would be appropriate to buy? For my retirement country, it is not something that I have decided as of yet.
Welcome to America! Pro tip: holiday in Utah in the summer, it’s amazing.
In your case, you’re right: you absolutely do NOT want to own IWDA and VWRA. The good news is, you can bung it all into one fund! Sign up for a Vanguard account when you get over here, and put all the money into
the appropriate Vanguard Target Retirement fund for your age. You can rethink your asset placement if and when you decide to leave the States, but while you’re over here, Vanguard it.
Seriously, if Vanguard’s target-retirement funds existed in Singapore, this thread wouldn’t need to exist. They really are that good.
Can someone recommend a value etf such as IVE but listed in the LSE ?
Hmm. Do you specifically want US value stocks, or global? And do you want small-cap, or any-cap is fine?
Hi Shiny,
With our IBKR accounts being moved to IBKR SG, some of us will have to rethink if we are to continue with SCB for our local stocks.
Is there any concern with having all our assets consolidated with just 1 broker?
Honestly, no, I don’t think there is, unless you’re really,
really big.
Managing multiple brokerage accounts is a gigantic pain in the ass. I have to have a couple of accounts, because my employer uses Fidelity for our retirement accounts, and nothing would make me happier than being able to shut the Fido account down and consolidate it with my other accounts.
And as far as risk management goes, I trust IBKR more than I would trust literally any other broker on the street. They have extremely conservative risk management—If a customer’s position starts to look risky, it gets stopped out immediately and automatically to minimize the risk of IBKR being on the hook for losses. They hold plenty of reserves in case there
are losses (as we saw with the oil crash in March, where IBKR was able to cover its customers’ losses with no trouble).
Hello, I am currently investing 40% into IWDA, 40% into G3B and 20% into ABF. Could someone kindly tell me what the average return in percentage will be over a period of e.g. 30 years?
If I estimate the dividends of G3B to be at a conservative 4%, the return of IWDA at 8% and the dividends of ABF at 2% then would the average return over 30 years simply be at an estimate of 0.4*4% + 0.4*8% + 0.2*2% = 5.2% ?
Firstly, you’re leaving out the capital gains component of G3B’s returns. Other than that, your math is right (though remember you’re trafficking in forecasts, not in guarantees. That 5.2% is not guaranteed; it could be less or it could be more).
hi currently trying to build up a portfolio
I have a question regarding US ETF, reading the Millionaire Teacher. In 1 of the chapters it was sharing that Singaporeans should not be getting US ETF due to the taxes. If this is the case what are the alternatives that you are using cover for international exposure? is it to use those Ireland-Domiciled eTF?
Correct.
iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF (Acc) - for international exposure
You should pick a global-stocks ETF instead of a US-specific ETF; other than that this looks pretty sensible.
Hi all, I know i'm late to the market, missed the boat.
On the contrary. Most global stocks are still well off their pre-COVID highs, except for a few go-go US tech names. Things are cheap now; your timing’s great.
With a lump sum of usd100k using IBKR SG, how long should I DCA,
A good rule of thumb for lump sums is to spread it over 4-6 months. Six figures is a decent-sized sum, so you can spread it over six months; that’ll work fine.
@Swan02
For point 2, just to confirm my understanding. Given yahoo finance figure:
NAV 1.06
Bid 1.0590
Ask 1.0610
If I want to buy, i should set my bid to 1.059. However, when i want to sell, i should sell it at 1.061 to earn the bond dividends? To earn the yield of 2%, correct?
What? No. If you want to buy, you need to pay 1.061, because that’s the price that someone’s willing to sell at. If you want to sell, you have to accept 1.059, because that’s the price that someone’s willing to buy at.
You can try to bid less than 1.061, or offer at a higher price than 1.059, to try to squeeze out an extra tick or two; but that means you no longer have a guarantee that your order will get done. The price might move away from you and you’ll be left behind.
We used to have a saying on the desk, “don’t be a d*ck for a tick”. Don’t try to be a hero by trading in the middle. Just pay the ask, or sell the bid; you don't want to miss the trade if the market moves away from your order.
