Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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swan02

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Ok that is a good answer and that’s what I was and many others wishes to know and that helped a lot in deciding whether reits or not.

Im usually loose with my specificity and context, not exactly thorough. But I believe u get the general sense my questions.

I question the premise of your question. A typical (or even fairly atypical) investor won’t have zero real estate allocation. REITs represented about 2.8% of the value of the U.S. S&P 500 stock index at year end 2019, as just one example. This percentage has risen since S&P allowed REITs into the index in 2001. (Initially they didn’t know what to do with them.) And there’s some indirect real estate exposure beyond that. Home Depot, as one example, has some strong correlation to real estate. And what are companies like IWG (listed in London), Airbnb (just about to IPO), and the infamous WeWork (aborted IPO), as other examples? Real estate, surely.

There’s absolutely no danger of zero here.
 

swan02

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Btw, BBC

1. Do you get all world including emerging like VWRD, or do you find it simpler to just IWDA ?

2. and if I'm not mistaken, you have a 20% allocation to STI ?. I know it has been answered, but I can't exactly recall.
 

BBCWatcher

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1. Do you get all world including emerging like VWRD, or do you find it simpler to just IWDA ?
Neither. I'm a U.S. citizen, and those particular funds are not tax appropriate for me. I do something analogous to VWRA, though. (Both VWRA and IWDA are simple -- they're just one fund each -- so I'm not sure what you mean. They're both fine; take your pick.)

2. and if I'm not mistaken, you have a 20% allocation to STI ?. I know it has been answered, but I can't exactly recall.
That's a bit of a problem, actually. It's very reasonable for me to overweight "Singapore" to some degree, and I do. But it's not simple to do. ES3 and G3B are also not tax appropriate for me, and EWS (the U.S. domiciled Straits Times Index fund) has a rather high expense ratio by U.S. standards, so I'm not a fan. Hypothetically I could buy a large number of the STI stocks individually, but many of the individual Straits Times Index stocks are also U.S. tax toxic even separately. I certainly cannot invest in SREITs even if I wanted to -- U.S. tax toxic again. So I've ended up with small positions in two of the three STI bank stocks, plus the bond/bond-like portfolio is rather well stocked with Singapore dollar denominations. This approach seems to be about the best I can do.

SGX-listed stocks simply aren't wonderful for me. You non-U.S. persons indirectly pay the 17% Singapore tax on dividend distributions (pre-distribution), and of course so do I on those couple SGX-listed bank stocks. But then I also pay U.S. income tax at my top marginal income tax rate on the distributed dividends, and I cannot claim back the 17% tax as a Foreign Tax Credit since it's the bank that pays it pre-distribution, not me. (If IRAS levied even a 25% dividend tax on me instead of 17% on the bank side, I would vastly prefer it because I could take the 25% as a FTC. But no, that's not how it works.) I don't get the lower U.S. qualified dividend tax rate either (they aren't qualified dividends), and SGX-listed stocks tend to be dividend heavy/capital gains poor, which is exactly backwards for my situation. Scrip dividends are much better, but they're seldom an option. (It's really pretty ugly, and the government might want to reconsider how they're handling these dividend taxes. If they can get the brokers/CDP/whatever to do the dividend tax withholding on the personal side, that'd make all the difference in terms of compatibility with other tax systems, not just the U.S. I think it's pretty common, almost universal, that individuals cannot take income tax credits except for individual income taxes.)

....But I'm not complaining! I like civilization, thanks, and taxes make civilization possible.
 

Kayeesha

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Hi Shiny Things and Everyone, I need some advice, please.

I am a housewife in my 50s, widowed last year, no dependents, no housing debt and no inclination of becoming a salaried worker. I have chosen to support myself through prudent management of my savings and have been struggling with it.

I thought I had my insurance requirements sorted out until my RM told me I need CI insurance, preferably ECI, and an annuity to supplement my CPF Life. I already have a hospitalisation plan and basic Eldershield (no Eldershield supplement, trying to keep my expenses to the bare minimum). Having to now buy an ECI insurance will just increase my monthly expenses.

The annuity plan that was recommended was AIA Platinum Generation which is essentially a participating whole life insurance with a guaranteed coupon payment starting at the end of year 10. For a US$250k coverage (a hypothetical amount), the premium is US$29,505 per year for 10 years. Whilst I welcome the guaranteed fixed coupon stream for the term of the plan, I am not sure about the high premium. I can opt for a lower coverage but is this the right product in the first place. Aren’t whole life insurances for those with dependents whom I have none? I’m also not familiar with investment-linked insurance products. Am I unnecessarily paying more for the fixed income stream? My RM says that I should look at the surrender values based on projected returns between 4% and 5.75% p.a. These investment returns are non guaranteed though. Moreover, I’ll have to wait for at least 15 years to see any positive returns. Based on the guaranteed investment return, the IRR is still negative after year 15.

What are your thoughts on whether I should get CI insurance and the recommended annuity plan?

Thanks!
 
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tesarise

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Hi Shiny Things and Everyone, I need some advice, please.

I am a housewife in my 50s, widowed last year, no dependents, no housing debt and no inclination of becoming a salaried worker. I have chosen to support myself through prudent management of my savings and have been struggling with it.

I thought I had my insurance requirements sorted out until my RM told me I need CI insurance, preferably ECI, and an annuity to supplement my CPF Life. I already have a hospitalisation plan and basic Eldershield (no Eldershield supplement, trying to keep my expenses to the bare minimum). Having to now buy an ECI insurance will just increase my monthly expenses.

The annuity plan that was recommended was AIA Platinum Generation which is essentially a participating whole life insurance with a guaranteed coupon payment starting at the end of year 10. For a US$250k coverage (a hypothetical amount), the premium is US$29,505 per year for 10 years. Whilst I welcome the guaranteed fixed coupon stream for the term of the plan, I am not sure about the high premium. I can opt for a lower coverage but is this the right product in the first place. Aren’t whole life insurances for those with dependents which I have none? I’m also not familiar with investment-linked insurance products. Am I unnecessarily paying more for the fixed income stream? My RM says that I should look at the surrender values based on projected returns between 4% and 5.75% p.a. These investment returns are non guaranteed though. Moreover, I’ll have to wait for at least 15 years to see any positive returns. Based on the guaranteed investment return, the IRR is still negative after year 15.

What are your thoughts on whether I should get CI insurance and the recommended annuity plan?

Thanks!

get your RM to explain to you why you need ECI. ECI is usually positioned as protection to cover 1-2 years of lost income while you are undergoing treatment for ECI. As you said you have no intention of being a salaried worker(i.e. no income in the first place), I don't see why the RM thinks you need this
 

swan02

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Perhaps if u were more specific as to your wealth that u r using to supplement your expenses since ya not working ? Or self employed with variable income ?

BBC watcher loves to answer such questions but in this forum, some common themes comes up if u read over Shiny 1 , 2 and 3 and u should since I get that u have likely have a large sum of money you’ve gotten via an insurance payout or inheritance ?

If I were u and speaking for myself putting myself in your position who does not have a good grasp of investment and money management.

1. Focus on CPF especially SA. Boost as much as possible without jeopardizing ability to feed yourself until ya able to access cpf at 65. Be aware of 55yo.

2. Only have Death/TPD TERM insurance till 65. 250k is ok. Have elder shield or the future carelife ..Get the best if there is...

3.No need CI or ECI. No need any life insurance with any investment linked or savings feature.

NO need any annuity plans since nothing beats CPF life.

GET the all important DII if u r self employed and hope they approve.

4. Rent out your rooms.
5. Learn investing into simple 3 fund portfolio
6. Learn difference between dca vs lump sum
7. Open trading account and try it out with small sums to gain confidence and emotional experience.
8. Consider robo advisor if it’s too difficult to do it yourself but never give up. It gets easier.
9. Don’t forget to read everything like I did
10. Buy shiny’s book. Cheap and concise. Do it asap as time is money.
11. If u r retired. Understand SWR and SORR really well.

 
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DOINK1

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Hi all,

Just wondering if Shiny or people here still advocate 50% local / 50% global ETF or change to 20% local / 80% global for us Singaporeans retiring here. Wouldn't 50% on STI over weight on the local portfolio?
 

Kayeesha

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get your RM to explain to you why you need ECI. ECI is usually positioned as protection to cover 1-2 years of lost income while you are undergoing treatment for ECI. As you said you have no intention of being a salaried worker(i.e. no income in the first place), I don't see why the RM thinks you need this

Thanks tesarise. He said I will need to pay for someone to look after me. Basically, a live-in nursemaid. I understand where he is coming from as I was the caregiver for my husband.
 

Kayeesha

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Perhaps if u were more specific as to your wealth that u r using to supplement your expenses since ya not working ? Or self employed with variable income ?

BBC watcher loves to answer such questions but in this forum, some common themes comes up if u read over Shiny 1 , 2 and 3 and u should since I get that u have likely have a large sum of money you’ve gotten via an insurance payout or inheritance ?

If I were u and speaking for myself putting myself in your position who does not have a good grasp of investment and money management.

1. Focus on CPF especially SA. Boost as much as possible without jeopardizing ability to feed yourself until ya able to access cpf at 65. Be aware of 55yo.

2. Only have Death/TPD TERM insurance till 65. 250k is ok. Have elder shield or the future carelife ..Get the best if there is...

3.No need CI or ECI. No need any life insurance with any investment linked or savings feature.

NO need any annuity plans since nothing beats CPF life.

GET the all important DII if u r self employed and hope they approve.

4. Rent out your rooms.
5. Learn investing into simple 3 fund portfolio
6. Learn difference between dca vs lump sum
7. Open trading account and try it out with small sums to gain confidence and emotional experience.
8. Consider robo advisor if it’s too difficult to do it yourself but never give up. It gets easier.
9. Don’t forget to read everything like I did
10. Buy shiny’s book. Cheap and concise. Do it asap as time is money.
11. If u r retired. Understand SWR and SORR really well.

Thanks, swan02.
 

BBCWatcher

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2. Only have Death/TPD TERM insurance till 65. 250k is ok.
No, that doesn’t make sense. Kayeesha doesn’t have any dependents. The Total and Permanent Disability (TPD) portion might make a little sense as a standalone matter, but I don’t think so.

Have elder shield or the future carelife ..Get the best if there is...
It will very likely make sense to switch to CareShield Life next year (mid-2021) when that option opens up.

He said I will need to pay for someone to look after me. Basically, a live-in nursemaid. I understand where he is coming from as I was the caregiver for my husband.
CareShield Life is on point to address this concern, but it’s for serious disability — the 3 out of 6 ADL benefit threshold is very strict. There might be an extra cost supplement next year that lowers the threshold to 2 out of 6. Tokio Marine has a standalone plan called TM Protect 1 with a 1 out of 6 ADL threshold to receive payouts, but coverage ends at age 70 at the latest.

I agree the whole life insurance idea is absurd. I also agree with the “pile into CPF LIFE” idea, consistent with maintaining enough liquidity, and with the Escalating Plan most likely when the time comes.

What’s the current Integrated Shield coverage like?
 

Shiny Things

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I’m on my first time off from work since literally December, so posting will be a bit slow for the next couple of weeks. Don’t be like me. Take some time off occasionally.

How do I go about buying into a Vanguard Target Retirement fund in Singapore? Is it via IBKR as well?

You don’t want to. The Vanguard funds are great for US investors, but they’re not really appropriate for Singaporean investors.

Any thoughts from anyone for good SRS investment options and of the Lion Global infinity series

Endowus also provides some options for SRS investing through dimensional funds.

Nah, the Lion Global Infinity funds, and Endowus’ Dimensional wraps, are both horrifically expensive. The Infinity funds charge nearly 1% a year for the privilege of funneling your money into a Vanguard fund, which, man, that pays for a lot of Ferraris for the fund managers.

BBC or anyone familiar with very long term TIPs 15+ years.

Please explain if you can the differences in benefits between short (up to 5 years duration, intermediate ie. 8 years duration and Long term TIPs (greater than 15 years duration) for a portfolio especially pertaining to inflation, and if you are able to, regards to expected and unexpected inflation, and the reliability of them.

Is this a homework question? Like, I’m not trying to be rude, but what are you trying to get out of this question - are you trying to decide which point on the curve to buy?

and I start to see nominal bonds being superceded by intermediate or long term TIPs, why ?.....do TIPs also protect in deflation which I've seen it does at the first leg during the crisis.
The reason US TIPS have done well over the last three months is because they did ABYSMALLY over the March crash, and now they’re just retracing to normal. TIPS have basically followed the SPX, weirdly enough.

Very roughly, break-even inflation implied by US TIPS is about 1.6% right across the curve right now. That means, if you’re looking at buying a 10-year bond, and you’re choosing between a nominal bond or a linker: if US inflation (as measured by the CPI) runs hotter than 1.6% p.a. over the next 10 years, then the linker will pay out more money than the nominal bond. If inflation is lower than 1.6% over 10 years, the linker will pay out less money than the nominal bond.

For context, US CPI’s been running below 2% for basically ten years now, so “higher than 1.6” is not a sure bet.

And TIPS don’t “protect against deflation”. If they did well in inflationary and deflationary environments that would be a pretty great product! TIPS got toasted during March and April because inflation was imploding and deflation was a real risk.

(There is one subtle technical case where US TIPS don’t underperform in a deflationary environment. Note, this only applies to freshly-issued TIPS, which may not be in your TIPS ETF of choice, and it doesn’t apply to TIPS from other countries which use different calculation and payout methods. I used to sit next to the bond and rates guys at my previous job building trading software, and boy oh boy there are a lot of weirdnesses in even the simplest-looking bonds.)

Respectfully correcting your terminology. what u r referring to is lump summing not dca. Lump sum every month without any money left for Investment is still lump sum.

I think we’re getting into terminology discussions here. If you buy a regular amount every month, then you’re dollar-cost averaging if you look at it over the long term, because you’re buying a roughly fixed dollar amount every month, and you’re getting DCA’s benefit of capitalizing on dips in the market. From the point of view of that month, you’re lump-summing, but... that’s not a particularly useful view to take?

I’d call what you’re describing (investing a regular investment amount every month) dollar-cost averaging.

Hi ST, what are your thoughts on SPACs such as $shll and $spaq?

HELL NO.

I heard that after the merger goes through and the ticket symbol is changed, they would pretty much guarantee a gain on your capital up to 2x,3x

Is this true and what are the risks involved?

It is not true. You’ve heard wrongly. Companies that reverse-merge into SPACs actually tend to underperform the market.

SPACs are generally a terrible investment; they’ve just gotten weirdly trendy at the moment. Stay right the hell away from them.


Oh god, DGAZF, what a fiasco.

OK, so here’s the scoop. DGAZF, and its slightly less monstrous twin brother UGAZF, were a pair of 3x-leveraged natgas ETNs run by Credit Suisse. They were both delisted a few months ago, and Credit Suisse (the issuer) stopped supporting them with creation/redemptions, but were still available to be traded on the (extremely illiquid) over-the-counter market.

Because the OTC market is illiquid, and a few idiots bought some of it, DGAZF started trading at a premium to the value of its underlying assets. “Smart” people saw it trading at a premium and decided to short it, because they assumed it would converge to the value of the underlying assets.

The problem is, for ETFs and ETNs to converge, there has to be a functioning creation/redemption mechanism. And Credit Suisse stopped doing creation/redemptions a few months back.

Uh-oh.

So DGAZF just kept going up. And people kept shorting it, but it kept going up. And then people started getting stopped out of their shorts, so it went up even more, and more, and more, and more... and a couple of funds blew up on the back of their losses shorting DGAZF.

The moral of the story, if there is one:
A) Don’t trade OTC stocks.
B) Don’t trade leveraged ETFs.
C) Don’t try to do ETF arbitrage.
D) Especially don’t try to do ETF arbitrage on leveraged ETFs that are only traded OTC.
 
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moolala

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HELL NO.



It is not true. You’ve heard wrongly. Companies that reverse-merge into SPACs actually tend to underperform the market.

SPACs are generally a terrible investment; they’ve just gotten weirdly trendy at the moment. Stay right the hell away from them.

Ok, thanks ST. May I know what's your thought process and reasoning behind it? Is it based on historical performance of SPACs in general or is there a fundamental reason for it?

I would like to understand and learn from your analysis why it's bad.

There are a few people talking about it as seen from this thread

https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/stocks-shares-indices-92/tortoise-acquisition-corp-6352934.html
 
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swan02

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That’s right, I was referring to the TPD component as can’t unbundle death and tpd unless there is.

Careshield life is inadequate if her TPD is long lasting. With a TPD payout she will be able to hire a high dependency nurse of higher quality care. That’s what the rich do. And a damn good maid to assist.

Think of the horrid scenario of totally can’t move, ventilated via a tracheostomy, riddled in bed sores, paralyzed..... and the 250k can also come in as a carrot to entice a close relative to watch or partake in her care. I was once dangled a carrot for that purpose although I think 500k is better. Only love can sustain a person to look after such a patient. If not, use $$$.

The list goes on... and I’ve seen enough of such patients and only a damn high quality of care and people would make one happy, or else death be a better solution. And u do need $$$. TPD in such situations can last 20 years or whole life. And it’s this very situation I myself get TPD for. Not the typical TPD that one usually expects to die from within a few years.

However, I have to add. Even though, I don't encourage people to see insurance as a windfall or a luxury. But in cases where you may become a quadraplegic (not so bad life), you may still find life very miserable. Being reasonably rich really helps life more enduring. Those are the scenarios I've seen many times.

However, if the TPD term gets too expensive or un affordable, better off not having it. Its not everyday you get paralysed or a severe stroke.

No, that doesn’t make sense. Kayeesha doesn’t have any dependents. The Total and Permanent Disability (TPD) portion might make a little sense as a standalone matter, but I don’t think so.
?
 
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swan02

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Thanks Shiny,

I have a lot of time and nothing else but these sort of things to spend my retirement in. Its just for knowledge . Also I brought Gold allocation to 10 percent from 20, did the same for my IDTL, and now figuring out whether to replace that 20 percent with IGIL or mix with TIP5 or only TIP5.

I've read arguments for very long term TIPs, superceding partially of nominal bonds because as the argument goes has both deflationary/inflationary qualities, more so deflationary than inflationary as longer term tips are more sensitive to nominal rates than inflation and that was surprising. You seem to disagree. Probably I have to thoroughly understand bond math. .

Although it goes on to say, its effect is not as potent as Nominal bonds in a deflationary scenario (that's why 15+ year TIPs were used). So far I've been watching at those longer term TIPs such as IGIL behaviour with Nominal bonds to see their correlation.

As for myself, due to the complexities, i have decided for now a simple equity/nominal bond is good enough without any TIPs but I do fear stagflation especially if I'm retired.

IGIL seem to catch my eye as recommended by BBC, it really seem somewhat correlated to nominal bonds so far.

I only need to spend 2 years in Australia, whenever 8 years is up. 8 years will likely be SG for now, but as kids grow up, will stay in many countries such cheaper parts of Europe, Japan, Taiwan many more. I guess I'll just make my portfolio more global. No need properties, just rent. Stick to a global bond portfolio.

Is this a homework question? Like, I’m not trying to be rude, but what are you trying to get out of this question - are you trying to decide which point on the curve to buy?

The reason US TIPS have done well over the last three months is because they did ABYSMALLY over the March crash, and now they’re just retracing to normal. TIPS have basically followed the SPX, weirdly enough.

Very roughly, break-even inflation implied by US TIPS is about 1.6% right across the curve right now. That means, if you’re looking at buying a 10-year bond, and you’re choosing between a nominal bond or a linker: if US inflation (as measured by the CPI) runs hotter than 1.6% p.a. over the next 10 years, then the linker will pay out more money than the nominal bond. If inflation is lower than 1.6% over 10 years, the linker will pay out less money than the nominal bond.

For context, US CPI’s been running below 2% for basically ten years now, so “higher than 1.6” is not a sure bet.

And TIPS don’t “protect against deflation”. If they did well in inflationary and deflationary environments that would be a pretty great product! TIPS got toasted during March and April because inflation was imploding and deflation was a real risk.

(There is one subtle technical case where US TIPS don’t underperform in a deflationary environment. Note, this only applies to freshly-issued TIPS, which may not be in your TIPS ETF of choice, and it doesn’t apply to TIPS from other countries which use different calculation and payout methods. I used to sit next to the bond and rates guys at my previous job building trading software, and boy oh boy there are a lot of weirdnesses in even the simplest-looking bonds.)
 
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BBCWatcher

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That’s right, I was referring to the TPD component as can’t unbundle death and tpd unless there is.

Careshield life is inadequate if her TPD is long lasting. With a TPD payout she will be able to hire a high dependency nurse of higher quality care. That’s what the rich do. And a damn good maid to assist.
OK, but it’s at least difficult to buy standalone TPD coverage that lasts for life. So the better approach, I think, would be to boost CareShield Life with a supplement that relaxes the disability definition and increases the payout. I don’t think we have clarity yet on what those supplemental options will be, but that’s probably the first idea to investigate.

I guess the patchwork pair of PA and CI is a possibility, but it’s quite expensive especially when you try to make it last, and it’s not really well aligned with the class of long-term care needs you describe. So I tend to favor boosting CPF LIFE and then layering boosted CSL largely on top of that.
 

swan02

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Yes boosting CPF life and CSL are great ideas which I think for myself too.

At the same time, before I reach 65 (that's when the TPD term ends), I hope money is substantial that I shan't be afraid of a horrid scenario. I imagine at 65, a financial position of ERS CPF life, CSL, fully paid accommodation, an external portfolio that allows lots of luxuries- such as external professional carer. I think it is very achievable.

I can't see in any events how CI or PA or others combined with CSL that can beat the TPD-CSL combo in terms of cost and effect for an unemployed person. Rather those savings channeled to max out CPF asap or a portfolio.

I sure hope there would be an enhanced CSL program, basic, intermediate, inflation hedged...similar to CPF life. I think its a matter of time before they offer.

OK, but it’s at least difficult to buy standalone TPD coverage that lasts for life. So the better approach, I think, would be to boost CareShield Life with a supplement that relaxes the disability definition and increases the payout. I don’t think we have clarity yet on what those supplemental options will be, but that’s probably the first idea to investigate.

I guess the patchwork pair of PA and CI is a possibility, but it’s quite expensive especially when you try to make it last, and it’s not really well aligned with the class of long-term care needs you describe. So I tend to favor boosting CPF LIFE and then layering boosted CSL largely on top of that.
 

Kayeesha

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Many thanks BBCWatcher and swan02 for your further comments and discussions.

No, that doesn’t make sense. Kayeesha doesn’t have any dependents. The Total and Permanent Disability (TPD) portion might make a little sense as a standalone matter, but I don’t think so.

That’s right, I was referring to the TPD component as can’t unbundle death and tpd unless there is.

Careshield life is inadequate if her TPD is long lasting. With a TPD payout she will be able to hire a high dependency nurse of higher quality care. That’s what the rich do. And a damn good maid to assist.

OK, but it’s at least difficult to buy standalone TPD coverage that lasts for life. ...

I guess the patchwork pair of PA and CI is a possibility, but it’s quite expensive especially when you try to make it last, and it’s not really well aligned with the class of long-term care needs you describe. So I tend to favor boosting CPF LIFE and then layering boosted CSL largely on top of that.

CareShield Life is on point to address this concern, but it’s for serious disability — the 3 out of 6 ADL benefit threshold is very strict.

I can't see in any events how CI or PA or others combined with CSL that can beat the TPD-CSL combo in terms of cost and effect for an unemployed person.

Based on my experience as my husband’s sole caregiver, when he could no longer perform 3 of the 6 ADLs, he barely survived 10 days. So, he would not have been able to make a claim under any of these severe disability insurances. Similarly, if I was struck with a CI, I would unlikely be able to claim from my Eldershield or its supplements until it’s too late?

On this basis, I think the best solution would be a standalone TPD and CI for life. However, as you have both pointed out, these plans would be too expensive especially for someone in my position.


It will very likely make sense to switch to CareShield Life next year (mid-2021) when that option opens up.
Yes boosting CPF life and CSL are great ideas which I think for myself too.
I am already in my 50s, if I were to become a quadriplegic or if I cannot perform 3 of the 6 ADLs, I think I wouldn’t last for many years. Short of suffering in the hands of a likely disgruntled stranger, I think I’d likely lose all desire to live. So, if I were to supplement my Eldershield, I think I will only buy one that pays additional monthly payout but for a limited period rather than for life. I guess, had my husband not died, I would think differently ….

I believe I will be auto-enrolled in Careshield Life next year. So, I may consider opting out just to keep my premium payments low.

What’s the current Integrated Shield coverage like?
I have a private hospitals plan. I think I will likely be forced to downgrade.
 

GreenTea97

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One of the principles behind DCA investing is that the best time to invest is now, so whatever you can save out of your earnings should be put to work as soon as the money is available. Why now? It’s because over long periods of time, the market goes up more than it goes down. Nobody can successfully time the market - those who say they can have gotten lucky... their luck will run out.



I don’t see much value using roboadvisors at your age - you should really be going all equity, and you don’t need anything fancy, you could just go with one ETF.

Comparing an interest bearing account with an index fund is like comparing an apple and an orange, completely different. An index fund is NOT something you invest in hoping for a short term gain. It’s a wealth building vehicle that you hold long term, through all of the ups and downs, with an average 9-11% per year over decades (historically). It’s not uncommon to see 20%+ annually during good years. Nobody can predict.



Index funds are still risky, just this past March we saw over 30% drop!

Thank you so much for the detailed explanation and rundown of everything i've mentioned, it's really helpful to a beginner such as myself! hmm seems like ETFs are the way to go then however since I have no income, would u recommend me to just divide up my savings into smaller amounts in order to employ the DCA method? also, due to the pandemic and everything that's going on, would u say that the advice given by shiny things in his book still stands today? if not, what are some ETFs u would recommend for someone who can only put in a small amount every month?
 
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