Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

[anonyme]

Are these assets held at CDP, i.e. they're Singapore-based securities?

If not, you could sell the assets, transfer the cash proceeds, then repurchase them. Yes, there will be brokerage commissions involved at both DBS Vickers and Interactive Brokers.

Thanks for the reply, BBCWatcher! My positions are in VUSD. Unfortunately with 0.35% commission levied by Vickers for UK stocks, this is turning out to be more expensive. Hmm.. :-\

 

[ftpofmpo]

Honestly there's no point speculating6

it's all over the place and has been placed into action, what speculation?

 

[Shiny Things]

Hey Shiny, you have an interesting perspective for Gold. Most articles/videos i encountered advocate Gold especially during a recession as their value is supposed to increase or at least remain stable during troubled times.

Those videos are giving you bad advice; owning gold during a recession is a terrible trade. Look what happened to XAUUSD during the 2008 plunge, or XAUJPY after 1989 (when the yen roared higher during the recession, and gold in yen terms lost 40 percent of its value between 1990 and 2000).

Hi ST,

I’ve completed ur book. Allocation is 75% stock 25% bond
[...]

any issue with the timeline? or I should make the first purchase of IWDA now?

Nope, no issues; that sounds completely reasonable.

I bought 1295 iwda on IBKR but the order was filled at the same price in two tranches of 1267 and 28 lots. The brokerage was 37.31 and 5 respectively. Why was it split and why was the brokerage rate different?

Thanks

Your order might have been matched against multiple sellers, as someone mentioned. 1200 IWDAs is a decent chunk, you might have taken out all the sellers and had to wait for someone to fill you on the remaining 28 shares.

Alternatively, it might have been split into two orders and routed to multiple venues, but IBKR's routing algos should be smart enough to not do that if it's gonna save you one cent a share on 28 shares but cost you five bucks to execute.

If you really want to dig into it, you should be able to file a ticket with IBKR and ask them why you had that little extra ticket... but really, it's five dollars on an eighty-thousand-dollar trade. I wouldn't get too hung up over it.

anyone know if its illegal to place orders to trick the algo into buy or sell then cancelling later?

have been seeing someone placing 1k on l2 70 ticks away on buy or sell side to push the price up or down on many hot stocks lately

That's called spoofing, and yes, it is various degrees of illegal depending on which exchanges you're doing it on. If you do it on a US exchange, the CFTC or the SEC will find you, catch you, and f*ck you up.

And don't think "oh I'm just a little trader in Singapore, they'll never find me". They will find you. Order feeds are public, and if the regulators detect spoofy order flows and serve your broker with a subpoena to find out who you are, the broker will not protect you.

Just a couple of weeks ago, the CFTC dropped the hammer on a couple of randos in Slovakia for spoofing behaviour in crude futures markets back in 2018.

 

[Shiny Things]

how will stocks react if trump or biden gets elected?

it seems that belief in the U.S. growth/reflation trade if biden takes control is driving stock prices to rise

Nobody really knows TBH.

The trendy macro trade lately has been the "blue wave reflation" trade—namely, if the Democrats win the Presidency, get a majority in the Senate, and retain the House (which I'd say is a pretty good chance at the moment, probably about two-in-three odds), they'll be able to pass the massive stimulus bills that America is, frankly, desperately in need of. This would be good for equities, good for credit spreads, and cause a bear-steepening in US yield curves (because the front end is locked down, but the issuance needed to pay for all this stimulus would cause the long end to sell off).

That hasn't been a particularly reliable theme over the past couple of weeks, though. I mean, today the odds of that "blue wave" are pretty much the highest they've been for the entire cycle, but US equities are getting poleaxed and yield curves are flattening like a *******, both of which are Not What Should Happen.

If the Dems get up, the one thing you can bet on is a return to normalcy. Sensible fiscal policy! Less dysfunction in Washington! Oh man it would be fantastic.

 

[malthead]

Thanks ST. The commissions add up to the same as if the whole chunk was executed in one tranche anyway so it's all good.

 

[BBCWatcher]

If the Dems get up, the one thing you can bet on is a return to normalcy. Sensible fiscal policy! Less dysfunction in Washington! Oh man it would be fantastic.

A few other random bits, possibly with some angles available to speculators and investors:

1. Democrats favor national marijuana decriminalization, and consequently the volatile cannabis industry could do better.

2. Somewhat relatedly, treatment centers for addiction should also do better and private prison operators and prison-related goods and services worse. Democrats want to shift from prison as a common response to simple illegal drug possession to treatment centers and services as the dominant response.

3. There could be some impacts in the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries, but probably this'll only bring forward trends that are already baked in. It's very, very tough now for healthcare spending to grow much beyond its current outsized fraction of U.S. GDP, so something has got to give.

4. There should be some stepped up antitrust enforcement, particularly in the technology sector. It wouldn't surprise me to see one or a couple mega market capitalization companies broken up over the next few years, and that could be a very good thing for investors.

5. Green technologies should do well, and the fossil fuel industry could lose its subsidies. I've seen some reasonable arguments that companies like Tesla could benefit, perhaps justifying (or coming closer to justifying) its already lofty valuation.

6. Relatedly, there should be a significant boost to infrastructure spending, particularly for repair and rehabilitation. Things like adding insulation to schools, government buildings, and homes. Switching street lighting to more energy efficient lamps. Adding sidewalks, bicycle paths, and traffic "calming" features. Planting trees and restoring wetlands. Smart traffic management systems. Mass transit and Amtrak, the national passenger rail system. (Joe Biden is probably Amtrak's most famous regular customer.) Fixing bridges, municipal water and sanitation systems, and electric grids. Environmental cleanup such as capping oil and gas wells that are leaking methane. Etc., etc.

7. Retirement savings plans such as 401(k)s and 403(b)s would change somewhat in terms of how the U.S. government gives them tax preferences. Currently retirement savers in the highest tax bracket get the most benefit. Savers in a zero or negative tax bracket get no benefit (or even negative benefit), although Roth (after-tax) plan variants can still sometimes work, and employer matching funds if offered are still beneficial. The Democratic proposal is to flatten the tax advantages so that everyone participating gets some benefit, skewing the benefits more toward lower and middle income earners (or unskewing them, really). I've seen some ridiculous reporting that this might cause angry CEOs to cancel 401(k)s completely because they aren't getting enough benefit personally, but no, that's not going to happen. For one thing, CEOs and other highly compensated individuals still get a tax break. It's just a smaller one, that's all. They're not toddlers, not often anyway. Also, even if a few act like toddlers, other employers would just snap up those workers by continuing to offer 401(k)s or even making them more attractive. Less than half of U.S. workers have 401(k) plans today, so what I think is much more likely to happen is that some greater percentage of workers will participate, by a few percentage points anyway.

 

[hwckhs]

No timeline given. U can ask again since IBKR SG is new, things might changed faster.

Just opened a ticket with IBKR last night. Their response:

Please note, we do not have any estimated time frame when the Joint accounts application will be available for IB SG entity. Apologies for any inconvenience.

 

[chekseng80]

Just opened a ticket with IBKR last night. Their response:

No luck, cont waiting..

 

[falseflush]

I’ve only been DCA-ing into G3B over the past few years and have a substantial holding that’s at a loss due to the market conditions this year.

After reading ST’s book, I’ve started to diversify into IWDA and MBH to achieve a 3-fund portfolio this month.

Given that my portfolio is now heavily skewed towards local equities, would it make sense to do a Nov rebalancing? If I sell I would suffer a substantial loss on my G3B.

Hope this isn’t a noob question.

 

[highsulphur]

I*********ve only been DCA-ing into G3B over the past few years and have a substantial holding that*********s at a loss due to the market conditions this year.

After reading ST*********s book, I*********ve started to diversify into IWDA and MBH to achieve a 3-fund portfolio this month.

Given that my portfolio is now heavily skewed towards local equities, would it make sense to do a Nov rebalancing? If I sell I would suffer a substantial loss on my G3B.

Hope this isn*********t a noob question.

Just dca into iwda for now. Leave the g3b alone for now

 

[chekseng80]

Any comment on NikkoAM-ICBCSG
China Bond ETF?

 

[Shiny Things]

After reading ST’s book, I’ve started to diversify into IWDA and MBH to achieve a 3-fund portfolio this month.

Given that my portfolio is now heavily skewed towards local equities, would it make sense to do a Nov rebalancing? If I sell I would suffer a substantial loss on my G3B.

Hope this isn’t a noob question.

Not a noob question at all.

Generally the advice is that you might as well go ahead and rebalance, because taking the occasional loss is a part of life. However, in your case, I think you're right to hold on to the G3B and just buy IWDA and MBH until you reach your target allocations.

Any comment on NikkoAM-ICBCSG
China Bond ETF?

What would you like to know? There's not really any good reason for individual Singaporean investors to have CNY bond exposure unless you want a way to bet on the SGDCNY FX rate.

 

[falseflush]

Not a noob question at all.

Generally the advice is that you might as well go ahead and rebalance, because taking the occasional loss is a part of life. However, in your case, I think you're right to hold on to the G3B and just buy IWDA and MBH until you reach your target allocations.

Thanks, Shiny. I’ll hold off the rebalancing for now then.

 

[Wishdom]

I'm looking to buy 20k worth of vwrd. Should I use tiered or flat commission?

Posted from PCWX using Ilovennp

 

[highsulphur]

I'm looking to buy 20k worth of vwrd. Should I use tiered or flat commission?

Posted from PCWX using Ilovennp

Fixed if you are buying it lump sum of 20k usd. 0.05% commission of $10.

 

[Wishdom]

Fixed if you are buying it lump sum of 20k usd. 0.05% commission of $10.

Lump sum 20k sgd. Also fixed?

Posted from PCWX using Ilovennp

 

[pixelspics]

For USD denominated ETFs in LSE,

Tiered: less than USD 9,028 OR more than USD 85,890
Fixed: USD 9,028 to USD 85,890

See below quote from the moderator before


**************** Quote from previous post of one of the moderators here *************************

If you are mainly buying USD denominated ETFs (such as IWDA and EIMI) in LSE, the below applies.

Tiered
- 0.05% commission, min USD 1.70, max USD 39 (under "EUR, CHF, USD, PLN, ILS and HUF-Denominated Products Tiered")
- 0.0045% LSE exchange fee, min GBP 0.10
- GBP 0.06 (~USD 0.08) LSE clearing fee

Fixed
- 0.05% commission, min USD 5

This means that Tiered is better for trades below USD 9,028 (commission of USD 5), and trades above USD 85,890 (commission of USD 42.945).

***************************************************************************************

 

[RedsYWNA]

Quote from previous post of one of the moderators here.


"This means that Tiered is better for trades below USD 9,028 (commission of USD 5), and trades above USD 85,890 (commission of USD 42.945)."

Tiered: less than USD 9,028 OR more than USD 85,890
Fixed: USD 9,028 to USD 85,890

For US markets, seems that tiered is always better for small retailers like us?

 

[pixelspics]

For US markets, seems that tiered is always better for small retailers like us?

In my previous post, I have added all the quotes from previous post by one of the moderators to make it clear that It only applies to USD denominated ETFs (such as IWDA, VWRD) in LSE.

 

[swan02]

double top trend ? *gets ready cash*