Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

[chrisloh65]

These banks' stock prices will sure drop a lot more.

As of now, DJIA already 30% dropped from recent peak.
I forsee more pain from here though.
People are going to see a slow death of stock index value after this wild swing ended.
I believe this stock market is going to be more a 'U' or 'L' shape price chart (also as predicted by Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/el-...t-from-high-as-world-goes-into-recession.html

What is the implications of this scenarios then, you may ask?
Well, it means DCA monthly will not earn you much money from the stock market over a 10 years or more period.

Hi all, just read that all 8 major US banks will suspend share buybacks, in lieu of current situation.

Does it mean stock prices will plunge even more? Or does it depend on other factors as well?

 

[revhappy]

Found this post on bogleheads, has it gotten that bad?

Just wanted to post a comment for the historical record.


I am still in the stay the course camp. Current desired AA is 84/16 but after Friday I was at about 82/18. I bought about 5k International in my taxable account on the first 10% drop and am continuing to buy stocks every pay day in my retirement accounts. I maxed our IRA's Jan 1. My plan is to rebalance back into stocks in about two weeks per my scheduled trigger in my IPS.


So far I am doing fine and don't really feel much emotion at all. I've been investing since 2010 but obviously have much more invested now than then. The scary point for me will be if all my gains since 2010 get erased. From where today's market is sitting at this moment (-~7%) it will take about 13% more to make that happen. It will be upsetting knowing that I would have been better off in an MM fund over the last 10 years but in lieu of a better plan I will continue to invest per my IPS.


Wishing anyone affected by COVID-19 the best. I am fortunate that I am still being paid and my family and friends are all still healthy. My losses are minor compared to anyone actually affected.

 

[d5dude]

Found this post on bogleheads, has it gotten that bad?

Its that bad for some investors. STXE 600, the 2nd biggest market outside of US is already back at 2010 levels. VWO is back to 2009 levels, only US market still far above 2010 levels, if that one also crash then all gains since 2010 will be wiped out for me.

 

[chrisloh65]

I am already expecting this stock market crash since last year and this crash happening now is coming earlier than I expected. It is good news to me though, but I believe this 30% crash of US market is just only the start (and not the end), so I will still wait and see, better not catch falling knife now!

Its that bad for some investors. STXE 600, the 2nd biggest market outside of US is already back at 2010 levels. VWO is back to 2009 levels, only US market still far above 2010 levels, if that one also crash then all gains since 2010 will be wiped out for me.

 

[isaacsayshi]

Hi peeps,

I was thinking to use CPF OA to buy bank shares like OCBC or should I stick to STI ETF?

Since market enter bear market, I was thinking banks stocks should have more growth compared to STI ETF in the long run.

I could be wrong.

 

[Okenba]

So STI is back at 2009 levels. Essentially, besides annual dividends, all investments into STI have gained a grand total of 0% for the past 10 yrs.

IWDA back at 2017 levels.
And since it is accumulating, there are no dividend payouts, so all investments into IWDA have zero gains for past 3 yrs. At least it's not past 10 years I guess...

Well. This is exciting for someone new to the investing scene.

 

[MichealScott]

So STI is back at 2009 levels. Essentially, besides annual dividends, all investments into STI have gained a grand total of 0% for the past 10 yrs.

IWDA back at 2017 levels.
And since it is accumulating, there are no dividend payouts, so all investments into IWDA have zero gains for past 3 yrs. At least it's not past 10 years I guess...

Well. This is exciting for someone new to the investing scene.

I am one of the new ones

Sent from Stamford Bridge using GAGT

 

[bladez87]

With the recent developments I would like to seek advice on the allocation of my portfolio, a 33yo guy.

I am thinking to go 20% into each of this group.

Iwda for growth and recovery
US spy and qqq, growth and recovery
Faang, growth and recovery
Es3 for dividend yield
Sg 3 banks for dividend yield

I did some simulation of dca over the past 20 years on the above groups excl Faang and it seems that Es3 provided the lowest capital gain by far.
Gains in terms of ranking
Qqq
Spy
Sg 3 banks
Es3

Iwda and Faang were not available 20 years ago.

Would anyone have any advice for me? Thanks

 

[BBCWatcher]

So STI is back at 2009 levels. Essentially, besides annual dividends, all investments into STI have gained a grand total of 0% for the past 10 yrs.

OK, but the STI dividends have been quite significant.

With the recent developments I would like to seek advice on the allocation of my portfolio, a 33yo guy.

I am thinking to go 20% into each of this group.

Iwda for growth and recovery
US spy and qqq, growth and recovery
Faang, growth and recovery
Es3 for dividend yield
Sg 3 banks for dividend yield

This is way too complicated.

 

[todayisgood]

With the recent developments I would like to seek advice on the allocation of my portfolio, a 33yo guy.

I am thinking to go 20% into each of this group.

Iwda for growth and recovery
US spy and qqq, growth and recovery
Faang, growth and recovery
Es3 for dividend yield
Sg 3 banks for dividend yield

I did some simulation of dca over the past 20 years on the above groups excl Faang and it seems that Es3 provided the lowest capital gain by far.
Gains in terms of ranking
Qqq
Spy
Sg 3 banks
Es3

Iwda and Faang were not available 20 years ago.

Would anyone have any advice for me? Thanks

You are starting from ground zero and straight away going into 12 counters?
Many are sort of replicate, eg 3 sg banks are heavy on sti, FAANG heavy on qqq. Qqq and spy closely directional.
Why not combine some groups so you can get a better grip? Also with so many counters how to space them over buying time during this volatile period?

 

[highsulphur]

Has no one found the acceptable price range to input orders fro sgx counters ridiculously narrow? It's almost impossible to place any limit orders when you are allowed to place orders only within 4 ticks of last price.

 

[d9_lives]

Anyone here still able to DCA as per ST?

Feels like putting anything in now is equivalent to burning half of it by next month

Also wonder if there’s any variation of DCA that can make use of these market events?

Of course. It's a wonderful situation for accumulators as you will get more and more shares.

As long as my job is not affected (salary increment/promotion freeze), a U shaped recovery is preferable for me.
I still have 8-9y to accumulate.

 

[highsulphur]

ES3 can't break 2.50....

 

[Maeda_Toshiie]

Is there a FAQ on how to open an IBKR account?

 

[bladez87]

You are starting from ground zero and straight away going into 12 counters?
Many are sort of replicate, eg 3 sg banks are heavy on sti, FAANG heavy on qqq. Qqq and spy closely directional.
Why not combine some groups so you can get a better grip? Also with so many counters how to space them over buying time during this volatile period?

Ya. When planning my entry points, I realized I don't have enough funds for multiple points.

 

[bladez87]

So STI is back at 2009 levels. Essentially, besides annual dividends, all investments into STI have gained a grand total of 0% for the past 10 yrs.

IWDA back at 2017 levels.
And since it is accumulating, there are no dividend payouts, so all investments into IWDA have zero gains for past 3 yrs. At least it's not past 10 years I guess...

Well. This is exciting for someone new to the investing scene.

This is the reason why I am hesitant to invest sti index, because this crisis effectively wiped out all capital gains from quite a long time back.

Whereas the Iwda and us indices did not lose 10 years worth of capital appreciation yet...

 

[Civicant]

Is it worth to sell high yield SSBs for rebalancing? For example those with ~2.5% yield over 10 years

 

[Investnewbie82]

PPCIan talks about building a war chest and non-linear DCA in his latest video.

From a 20+ years DCA investor, I guess that’s a pretty honest reflection.

What do you guys think about it? Anything you have learnt from this crash?

 

[kram62]

Is it worth to sell high yield SSBs for rebalancing? For example those with ~2.5% yield over 10 years

I was also lucky to build up my medium term emergency fund and bond base at the time they were also at 2.5%

Personnally, I've chosen to keep those for the foreseeable future. At that interest rate and with full flexibility and value guaranteed, I don't plan to touch them until really necessary.

 

[jinsatkilife]

You are starting from ground zero and straight away going into 12 counters?
Many are sort of replicate, eg 3 sg banks are heavy on sti, FAANG heavy on qqq. Qqq and spy closely directional.
Why not combine some groups so you can get a better grip? Also with so many counters how to space them over buying time during this volatile period?

Historically, doesn't qqq perform better than spy?

So why spy when can qqq?