Official Shiny Things thread—Part III

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BBCWatcher

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S&P500 with dividends included is 9.9%
For 1965 to 2017?
According to DYQDJ the annualized figure from June, 1965, to June, 2017, is 9.858%. That assumes gross dividends are reinvested. That’s too high, though, because it doesn’t include taxes, fees, and tracking error.

From June, 1974, to June, 2017, the figure is 11.150% with the same caveats.

As a reminder, 1974 just happens to be when Temasek was founded. Performance figures vary dramatically depending on your chosen time interval, which is why it’s important, at least as a starting point, to pick several time intervals when examining historical performance. As it happens, I don’t think the U.S. S&P index is a valid, reasonable baseline for assessing Temasek’s management.
 

polyglob

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As it happens, I don’t think the U.S. S&P index is a valid, reasonable baseline for assessing Temasek’s management.

This I agree. I wrote about SP500 because that web page I found compared BRK to it, and the post I replied to said might as well invest in index without the management overhead that Temasek presently has.
 

polyglob

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The 1974 date is simply when Temasek was founded. Any monkey with a Singaporean or “Asian” bias could have made/did make a lot of money in 1970s and 1980s Singapore.

So easy huh.

To start to get some sense of what’s going on, you could look at various performance intervals: 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30 (years), and Inception.

No disagreement from me.
 

DamShiokla

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@Shiny things i have dm you a few days ago regarding the topic of rebalancing.

How can i expect to know which day should i rebalance on May, given that there are 30 days in May and etc. Must i look at the stock market everyday?

Thanks.
 

viventa

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@Shiny things i have dm you a few days ago regarding the topic of rebalancing.

How can i expect to know which day should i rebalance on May, given that there are 30 days in May and etc. Must i look at the stock market everyday?

Thanks.

If you normally purchase your stocks/bonds on, for example, the 11th of every month, just re-balance on 11 May. Stop looking for a magic formula to determine which specific day you should carry out your re-balancing.
 

chrisloh65

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Right here, You and Shiny Things are telling us to DCA blindly over long term regardless of market conditions, and then suddenly you are picking and choosing the date for which the computed Temasek's return will appear poorer to justify your insistence that Temasek don't do as well as index ETF? :s8:

Did you read this?

According to that BT article quoted (Temasek's) total shareholder return since 1974 is 16% in US$ terms. In the 1st 2 pages of web search I found 1 link stating that BRK CAGR is 20.9% from 1965-2017 while S&P500 with dividends included is 9.9%. Not identical measures but useful as frame of reference.

What is wrong with using 1974 as the starting date to compute Temasek's return since that was the date when Temasek was founded? I really wonder whether you also do the same thing to your own's return, i.e. you started investing in 1981 but you insist on using 1987 (for example) as starting date just to compute and show your return to have done much better? So it seems that you like to adjust your date arbitrarily to suit your purpose? :s13:

While the government could do more, or anything really, to encourage the development and proliferation of low cost, well diversified index unit trusts (Singapore’s equivalent to mutual funds) — simply implementing the last round of CPF panel recommendations would help — the government isn’t stopping the private sector in this respect. Blame Singaporean investors and unit trust providers and sellers for persistently high costs.

The history in the U.S. is really all about Jack Bogle founding Vanguard as a not for profit mutual association — and then his not being a jerk about his own total compensation, which by Wall Street standards was modest. Yes, OK, it’s helpful that Vanguard’s founding roughly coincided with the development of 401(k) plans (a regulatory invention) and, later, the Internet. But there’s no particular impediment to history repeating itself in Singapore, and SRS accounts already exist. And the sclerotic unit trust market is getting more competitive with the growth of zero fee platforms and more savvy investors.

In the Singapore context, maybe TCC Credit Co-operative could/should get in this business, offering low cost “target date” funds (via automatic GIRO deductions) that are index funds of index funds? The underlying funds would be VWRA (or IWDA), ES3 (or G3B), and MBH. All distributed dividends would be automatically reinvested.


The 1974 date is simply when Temasek was founded. Any monkey with a Singaporean or “Asian” bias could have made/did make a lot of money in 1970s and 1980s Singapore. Good for Temasek that Singapore rapidly and successfully transformed from an emerging economy to a developed one, but you don’t measure a fund management team’s performance based on one-time historical happenstance. It should always be relative to reasonable baselines (“monkeys”), inclusive of the happenstance as part of your baseline.

To start to get some sense of what’s going on, you could look at various performance intervals: 1, 3, 5, 10, 20, 30 (years), and Inception.
 

BBCWatcher

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Temasek hasn't published its 2020 annual report yet (delayed to September, 2020), but according to their 2019 annual report here are their "Total Shareholder Return" figures through March 31, 2019, evidently in Singapore dollar terms (page 6):

1 Year: 1.49%
3 Year: 8.88%
10 Year: 9%
20 Year: 7%
30 Year: 12%
40 Year: 15%
Inception (1974): 15%

The 30 and 40 year figures are from Temasek's Web site. On July 21, 2020, Temasek also released what it describes as preliminary data, pegging its 1 Year TSR at -2.3% through March 31, 2020. Thus all the TSR figures above will be reduced, with the longer periods progressively less impacted (and likely not impacted when rounded to the nearest whole percentage, which is unfortunately what Temasek does).

Not that it's a great comparison, but here are the gross annualized total return figures for the U.S. S&P 500 Index through March 31, 2020, on a U.S. dollar basis, gross dividends reinvested, rounded to the second (percentage) decimal place. These figures are somewhat too high since they do not include fees, dividend taxes, and tracking error. Also there might be slight variations due to the way DQYDJ uses monthly figures (and/or the way I selected them).

1 Year: -3.58%
3 Year: 5.87%
10 Year: 8.70%
20 Year: 5.07%
30 Year: 9.33%
40 Year: 11.25%
Since June, 1974: 10.78%
 

BBCWatcher

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I read somewhere S&P annualized returns should be 12% or so ?
Why would that necessarily be so? I don't think it's realistic to forecast a 12% nominal annualized net return on a U.S. S&P 500 Index-based investment. I don't recommend such an optimistic forecast. It's possible, but I don't think it's particularly likely.
 

polyglob

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Why would that necessarily be so? I don't think it's realistic to forecast a 12% nominal annualized net return on a U.S. S&P 500 Index-based investment. I don't recommend such an optimistic forecast. It's possible, but I don't think it's particularly likely.

To add to that, the US FIRE crowd's 4% rule is based on 7% historical returns.
 

rantasaurus

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ur answer is the distraction;

it's considered underperformance if funds are not able to match the market in the long run after expenses;

otherwise just invest in the index with a small crew, no need a giant organisation with huge expenses

To be fair, it is very difficult to find a reasonable benchmark/index/fund to compare Temasek’s performance against, due to the following reasons:

1) Institutional context. We must remember that Temasek was initially set up as an investment holding company which holds large stakes in local companies. Even as the portfolio grows and becomes more diversified, it still owns large stakes in these companies, which for better or worse may not be due to risk-reward or portfolio construction considerations but could instead be for strategic reasons.

2) Asset mix. Partly because of (1) but also due to its more EM-centric allocation, it is hard to compare their performance with peers or indices which tend to be more DM-centric. Furthermore, 26% of its allocation is in Singapore, which is a very large overweight relative to the global stock market.

3) Valuation. 42% of its portfolio are in unlisted assets. For those of you who are familiar with how unlisted assets like private equity and private real estate are valued, they tend to be a lot more “smoothed” as valuers are often less quick to incorporate the full extent of impact as implied in the listed securities’ prices (for both up and down markets), unless there is strong evidence to suggest otherwise. So it is still a wait-and-see for this part of the portfolio over the next few quarters into the recession.

4) Currency. Understand that Temasek reports their performance in both SGD and USD terms but I am not familiar with their currency hedging policy, which can make a big difference to returns. This makes it difficult to compare to an index like S&P 500.

What is true, is that it is still a predominantly equity portfolio, and like what many have suggested, we can still compare their performance against an equity benchmark to appreciate the movements that happened in equity markets over the periods we are interested in. But beyond that, it is hard to draw any conclusions based on the various reasons I have shared above.
 

Kaypohji

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chrisloh65

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I think you need to know that US stock index is currently being fed steroid and inflated artificially by the Fed ..............

https://www.scmp.com/print/comment/opinion/article/3093311/how-us-federal-reserve-created-financial-opioid-crisis-west

How the US Federal Reserve created a financial opioid crisis in the West
By targeting asset prices to bolster the economy, the Federal Reserve is again creating an asset bubble. The US central bank’s loose monetary policy, more than China, is really to blame for the US’ troubles now



https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/253743/ishares-sp-500-b-ucits-etf-acc-fund

CSPX annualized return since inception is 12.48%

The website is stating smth else :s11:
 

Han Shot First

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Of course consistent underperformance is failure and next better players should be put in charge.

According to that BT article quoted total shareholder return since 1974 is 16% in US$ terms. In the 1st 2 pages of web search I found 1 link stating that BRK CAGR is 20.9% from 1965-2017 while S&P500 with dividends included is 9.9%. Not identical measures but useful as frame of reference.

Any other industrial conglomerate or SWF you suggest to compare to?

The Government Pension Fund of Norway.

It comprises 2 entirely separate sovereign wealth funds owned by the government of Norway.

The Government Pension Fund Global, also known as the Oil Fund, was established in 1990. It has over US$1 trillion in assets, making it the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund. In May 2018 it was worth about $195,000 per Norwegian citizen.
 

BBCWatcher

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https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/253743/ishares-sp-500-b-ucits-etf-acc-fund
CSPX annualized return since inception is 12.48%
The website is stating smth else :s11:
Right, and why would you forecast a 12% annualized total net return simply because CSPX had that sort of past return over an arbitrary interval? Past performance is not indicative of future results. I’d be thrilled with that sort of return going forward, but I’m certainly not counting on it.
 

polyglob

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The Government Pension Fund of Norway.

Data is here - https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/returns/

Quote, "The fund has generated an annual return of 6.1 percent between 1 January 1998 and the end of 2019. The net annual return on the fund is 4.2 percent."

The charting can show 15, 10 and 5 year periods, but looks buggy because it always reports the same 6.09% for whatever duration.
 

bobobob

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Data is here - https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/returns/

Quote, "The fund has generated an annual return of 6.1 percent between 1 January 1998 and the end of 2019. The net annual return on the fund is 4.2 percent."

The charting can show 15, 10 and 5 year periods, but looks buggy because it always reports the same 6.09% for whatever duration.

Am I reading this correctly, that Temasek returns trash theirs?
 

polyglob

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Am I reading this correctly, that Temasek returns trash theirs?

More data and quick calculations.

Based on chart on Temasek site, 1998 ~75bn, 2019 313bn. That's 7.4% CAGR.

Norway SWF 1998 23bn, 2019 1,148bn. Taking 20 year compounding at 6.1% of 23bn gives 75bn. Meaning the bulk of that humongous 1+ trillon should be from oil money injection.

If Singapore got oil well... today still part of Malaysia :s13:
 
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