[Official] Singapore Blue Chips CD tracking thread

[bhalimking]

I think cause 3rd quarter results were bad, which lead to a sharp sell down to a 2 year low

so the pressure is for management to push up the stock price, don't forget that these guys have a lot of stock option on hand.. if the stock price is low.. their options are not in the money

STE is a net cash company, so they have no problems funding large purchases of their own shares, in which the 2 key points to boost the stock price are

1) show of confidence towards investors, doing open market purchase helps create psychologically price support

2) better per share figures for Q4 and full year returns, because there is less outstanding shares, the same amount of earnings will be spread among lesser shares, thus a better looking EPS

cheers

True. But they were planning to do a lower payout for this financial year. The objective is to retained more earnings to seek further growth that yield higher IRR. Seems like now they have spent those money they retained on the share buyback instead.

 

[felixleong]

True. But they were planning to do a lower payout for this financial year. The objective is to retained more earnings to seek further growth that yield higher IRR. Seems like now they have spent those money they retained on the share buyback instead.

Ya, actually management got explain before why, cause now countries like US and Europe the tax regulation is very strict( they need $$ ma), if st engg sends the profits back to sg to pay dividends, will kanna tax by US, EU garmen

So instead of paying dividends, its more capital efficient to do share buy backs or acqusitions.

Quite similiar to whats happening to US stocks, like AAPL having too much cash, but they cant bring it back to US without being taxed, so they do a lot of sharebuy backs


Do note that 1/4 of STE business comes from US

Not sure if i explained correctly, but in short
Buy back or acqusition > dividends
Due to tax

Cheers

 

[Milo-Dino]

Hph hkd0.223 dvd for half year

Sent from Xiaomi MI 3W using GAGT

 

[sharepoint2014]

bookmarked for later...

 

[felixleong]

HPH down 6% on goodwill write down

DPU also forecasted to be lower

very no good

OCBC research

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Hit by impairment charge
HPHT swung to a 4Q14 loss (after taxes and minority interest) of HK$18,610.0m, versus a profit of HK$334.8m in the same period last year. This was mainly due to a HK$19b impairment charge on goodwill allocated to a cash-generating unit in Hong Kong which was adversely impacted by uncertainties in the global economy, challenging trading environment and labor cost pressures. Excluding the impairment charge, adjusted net profit after tax for FY14 was HK$2,981.7m (down 0.7% mainly due to higher taxes), which constitutes 101.7% of our full year forecast and is within expectations. FY14 distribution per unit is 41.0 HK-cents and management has guided for FY15 DPU to dip to 33-36 HK-cents, below the consensus of 38.6 HK-cents. Management reports that it is still in discussions with the shipping lines regarding tariff increases and sees a mid-low single digit percentage increase. We note that unitholder’s NAV per unit (after deducting DPU for both years) has dipped significantly from HK$7.26 (end FY13) to HK$4.86 (end FY14) and believe the share price will likely react negatively to the impairment charge and lower DPU guidance. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value estimate of US$0.68. (Eli Lee)

 

[Perisher]

Have no idea how HPH can be a blue chip... High yield and volatile nature both doesn't fit into blue chip standard.

 

[johndoe2]

HPH down 6% on goodwill write down

DPU also forecasted to be lower

very no good

OCBC research

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Hit by impairment charge
HPHT swung to a 4Q14 loss (after taxes and minority interest) of HK$18,610.0m, versus a profit of HK$334.8m in the same period last year. This was mainly due to a HK$19b impairment charge on goodwill allocated to a cash-generating unit in Hong Kong which was adversely impacted by uncertainties in the global economy, challenging trading environment and labor cost pressures. Excluding the impairment charge, adjusted net profit after tax for FY14 was HK$2,981.7m (down 0.7% mainly due to higher taxes), which constitutes 101.7% of our full year forecast and is within expectations. FY14 distribution per unit is 41.0 HK-cents and management has guided for FY15 DPU to dip to 33-36 HK-cents, below the consensus of 38.6 HK-cents. Management reports that it is still in discussions with the shipping lines regarding tariff increases and sees a mid-low single digit percentage increase. We note that unitholder’s NAV per unit (after deducting DPU for both years) has dipped significantly from HK$7.26 (end FY13) to HK$4.86 (end FY14) and believe the share price will likely react negatively to the impairment charge and lower DPU guidance. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value estimate of US$0.68. (Eli Lee)

Looking to accumulate hph

 

[felixleong]

Looking to accumulate hph

the forward yield of 6% is not bad

however becareful of the high gearing of 50%+

especially if interest rates starts to move out

 

[felixleong]

UBS

2014: net loss of HK$17bn, pre-x net profit –7% YoY, DPU at HK$0.41

2014 net earnings was a loss of HK$17.2bn, as a result of HK$19bn non-cash impairment assessment on goodwill. Excluding impairment loss and disposal gain, 2014 pre-x net profit retreated 7% YoY to HK$1.56bn, and Q414 pre-x net profit rose 16% YoY to HK$390m on a low base in Q413. 2014 pre-x net profit is 2%/12% below our estimate and consensus. A full year DPU of HK$0.41 was declared, same as our estimate as well as consensus estimate.

HK$0.33-0.36 DPU guidance for 2015 was below expectation

Management already highlighted from Q314 result call that 2015 DPU will most likely follow the actual cash flow. Management at the 2014 result call for the first time gave an explicit 2015 DPU range guidance of HK$0.33-0.36, being 4-12% below our estimate of HK$0.37 and 8-16% below consensus estimate of HK$0.39. Potential uncertainties on 2015 DPU (or cash flow) include: 1) volume growth (management guides 3-5%); 2) tariff increase and box mix change; 3) interest rate; and 4) capex.

Tariff hike talk still ongoing, management looks for mid-to-low single digit rise

Tariff negotiation is still ongoing between HPH Trust and shipping companies. But management is confident on raising tariff, and expects mid-to-low single digit growth in 2015, after taking into account of the fact that only half of the contract is subject to re-negotiation. Furthermore, management sees more tariff upside potential in HK given capacity constraints, while Yantian's tariff hike may be smaller than HK's if shipping companies are committed to bring more volume to Yantian.

Valuation: Neutral, new PT of US$0.68 (from US$0.67)

We fine-tuned our earnings estimates and our new 12m DDM-based PT (COE of 8.2%) is US$0.68. We find current valuation fair with 12m forward dividend yield of 6.7%, 1.0x S.D. below the mean (since IPO).

 

[johndoe2]

the forward yield of 6% is not bad

however becareful of the high gearing of 50%+

especially if interest rates starts to move out

Have faith with hph. Increase tariff, expansion of trade routes and increase in large fleet volume bore well I believe.
When retailers are fearful, time to be greedy.

Ugh... It's going back up alr... So many 1k buy in... Bb r coming in...

 

[Singleton]

Still can buy? I have bought at IPO..and buy in again 2 times..still bleeding...

 

[felixleong]

Still can buy? I have bought at IPO..and buy in again 2 times..still bleeding...

Hph u hold so many years le, it should be clear to you that its fundamentals are not impressive as compared to other blue chips and it often under performs the index.

Would u rather hold the index for close to average 8% returns or do u think hph can do better?

At 6% yield and no capital gains, i think its unlikely for hph to do better than the index

 

[Singleton]

Hph u hold so many years le, it should be clear to you that its fundamentals are not impressive as compared to other blue chips and it often under performs the index.

Would u rather hold the index for close to average 8% returns or do u think hph can do better?

At 6% yield and no capital gains, i think its unlikely for hph to do better than the index

Cos I dont want to cut losses at 16%... but if include mar dividends( now is CD date) then I can break even..if I manage to sold it now.

 

[felixleong]

Cos I dont want to cut losses at 16%... but if include mar dividends( now is CD date) then I can break even..if I manage to sold it now.

Sometimes short term pain better than long term pain. Sold my hph at 10% loss one year after ipo and never looked back. My friend still holding and still on big paper loss even after including dividends. I'm glad i put the $$ elsewhere and not only made back my 10%, its still growing well.

HPH, really is more of a cyclical stock and often misunderstoood to be a defensive dividend stock

 

[Singleton]

Sometimes short term pain better than long term pain. Sold my hph at 10% loss one year after ipo and never looked back. My friend still holding and still on big paper loss even after including dividends. I'm glad i put the $$ elsewhere and not only made back my 10%, its still growing well.

HPH, really is more of a cyclical stock and often misunderstoood to be a defensive dividend stock

Ok, queuing up to sell it at $0.69! I got other stocks that I sold also to cut losses.. As HPH USD trust it give 'better dividends' due to price drop....

 

[simon_84]

Cos I dont want to cut losses at 16%... but if include mar dividends( now is CD date) then I can break even..if I manage to sold it now.

you can break down your losses in smaller amount of selling.
don't have to sell all in one go.

 

[felixleong]

you can break down your losses in smaller amount of selling.
don't have to sell all in one go.

ya very good point
maybe can break into 3 parts
sell 1 part first then
every 5% up sell another part

 

[johndoe2]

Still can buy? I have bought at IPO..and buy in again 2 times..still bleeding...

They are getting mid to high tariff revision which is good.
I suspect most ppl do not understand what is goodwill impairment given the sell down.
I Look forward to stock future growth then their past history. Which may not work for everyone.

 

[Perisher]

STI ETF ES3 give divvy liao. =)

 

[MisterLim001]

thai beverage worth to buy?? good dividend stock??

what about super group????