ussr_1991
Banned
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- Jan 24, 2007
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Indeed there is a saga about how NSP becomes NP without the 'S' for Solidarity.
So to those opposition supporters who still wish to change the government, this is what one will need to do, ranked according to chance to win the seat from the oppositions:
Workers' Party (WP) to win all 27 seats
Singapore Democratic Party to win all 11 seats
Singapore People's Party (SPP) to win at least 1 seat
Singaporean First Party (SingFirst) to win at least 5 seats
Reform Party (RP) to win at least 1 seat
1: Hougang SMC (WP)
- Needless to say, it is a very safe seat for WP.
2: Aljunied GRC (WP - 5 seats)
- Could be affected by the AHPETC issue, but hopefully being negated by the anti-establishment tide.
3: Punggol East SMC (WP)
- Currently holds the highest risk for the non-PAP incumbent to lose the seat, because it is challenged by the 2 times happy go lucky Charles Chong (Eunos GRC in 1991 and Joo Chiat SMC in 2011)
4: Fengshan SMC (WP)
- High chance to win over due to spillover effect.
5: East Coast GRC (WP - 4 seats)
- Similar to Fengshan SMC, but chances will greatly increase if that Han Su May (Glenda) is still there.
6: Mountbatten SMC (SPP)
- Hardworking Jeannette could have become the next LTK in terms of voting swing.
7: Sengkang West SMC (WP)
- Chances rated somewhat lower than Jeannette because those affected in the columbarium saga has already absorbed into AMK GRC
8: Marine Parade GRC (WP - 5 seats)
- ESM is still contesting the ward, but the tide turns to WP's favor because the anchor minister is Tan Chuan Jin instead.
Notably, Braddell Heights (Serangoon MRT, Nex area) and Joo Chiat ward are pro-opposition. Geylang Serai & ESM ward is likely pro-PAP and Kembangan & Ubi estate ward is leaning PAP.
9: Nee Soon GRC (WP - 5 seats)
Most likely led by newbie team. But the previous result is also hovering at 41% as well.
10: Holland-Bukit Timah GRC (SDP - 4 seats)
Best scoring team on the GRC away from the East side.
11: Bukit Batok SMC (SDP)
Depends how good the candidate is, given that SDP is determined to win the nearly won SMC back in 1991.
12: Bukit Panjang SMC (SDP)
3rd attempt and hopefully the voters there decided to change their CDC mayor given that Teo Ho Pin the incumbent is one of those responsible for the town council's largest loss of $8 million in minibonds saga across all Town Councils in Singapore.
13: Marsiling - Yew Tee GRC (SDP - 4 seats)
No information about the polling tendencies here, but I hope SDP can campaign about the 'slum' transport facilities along Yew Tee (Extremely crowded with lack of feeder bus choice. This is due to the way Yew Tee can only be connected to CCK Town Center by bus or Sungei Kadut Industrial Estate by walk, car, and cab)
14: Yuhua SMC (SDP)
Not that lady who was detained in 1987 because it may be perceived as personal agenda.
15: Jalan Besar GRC (WP - 4 seats)
Lily Neo is simply too popular and Chinatown ward is clearly pro-PAP. It could be offset by the Kallang ward. Whampoa ward could be tussle, given that the NSP candidate was not that fantastic in the first place.
16: Tanjong Pagar GRC (SingFirst - 5 seats)
Never contested before. It could be a tussle, leaning towards PAP. Some people hated Tan Jee Say for the 2011 Presidential Election also does not do well for him either.
17: Radin Mas SMC (RP)
Depends who is standing there, high chance if KJ himself is asking for the former Anson SMC's resident support for him as the support for the JBJ. If not KJ, I doubt this seat could be won.
Total: 27 + 11 + 1 + 5 + 1 = 45 seats, barely enough to form a coalition government
For those who are hardcore enough and hoped for Opposition to win 2/3 majority instead, the following parties will have to win in order to get the 15 seats to have 60 seats in parliament.
SPP to win at least 2 seats, including Mountbatten SMC
SPP-DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) joint team to win their 5 seats
PPP to win all 4 seats
SingFirst to win all 10 seats, including Tanjong Pagar GRC
18: Potong Pasir SMC (SPP)
I think the trend for this SMC is more towards weakening of opposition support, specifically the Chiam's support. This is clearly shown in results of 1991 GE VS 1997 GE.
Perhaps, I am wrong this time or maybe the Independent will help to swing at least 5 to 10% of those who voted Sitoh just because they don't like family politics, concern of Chiam's advanced age without viable successor. Moreover, Lina has announced that this will be her last stint in GE in Chinese papers might hurt her chances as well.
19: Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (SPP-DPP - 5 seats)
The difference is still not sort out between SPP and DPP. According to Pwee, he wanted to assemble all the best candidate pooled from both sides given that DPP has at least 2 ministerial calibre candidate (Pwee & Harvard graduate) but Lina wished to allocate at least 3 from SPP side for the familiarity appeal towards voters as a strong grounds.
With such an uneasy alliance, I am inclined to believe that it will be hard to win the fence sitters middle ground voters.
20: Choa Chu Kang GRC (PPP - 4 seats)
There are still people being sceptical of Goh Meng Seng himself. However judging from recent Facebook Page posting, I think he is a changed person and he deserved to have the needed 13% swing for him to be elected.
21: Jurong GRC (SingFirst - 5 seats)
Similar to Tanjong Pagar GRC, some people would have upset about Tan Jee Say entering into the 2011 Presidential Election fray and deny Tan Cheng Bock the chance to be the president instead. Otherwise, actually all of the SingFirst contested seats would be SDP as well and give SDP rise to be the 2nd largest number of seats to be contested (22) after WP (27 or 28, depending if WP to back out last minute in MacPherson SMC).
Total: 45 + 1 + 5 + 4 + 5 = 60 seats
Thus, whether NSP / SDA is of relevance or not, is not so important after all!!!
So to those opposition supporters who still wish to change the government, this is what one will need to do, ranked according to chance to win the seat from the oppositions:
Workers' Party (WP) to win all 27 seats
Singapore Democratic Party to win all 11 seats
Singapore People's Party (SPP) to win at least 1 seat
Singaporean First Party (SingFirst) to win at least 5 seats
Reform Party (RP) to win at least 1 seat
1: Hougang SMC (WP)
- Needless to say, it is a very safe seat for WP.
2: Aljunied GRC (WP - 5 seats)
- Could be affected by the AHPETC issue, but hopefully being negated by the anti-establishment tide.
3: Punggol East SMC (WP)
- Currently holds the highest risk for the non-PAP incumbent to lose the seat, because it is challenged by the 2 times happy go lucky Charles Chong (Eunos GRC in 1991 and Joo Chiat SMC in 2011)
4: Fengshan SMC (WP)
- High chance to win over due to spillover effect.
5: East Coast GRC (WP - 4 seats)
- Similar to Fengshan SMC, but chances will greatly increase if that Han Su May (Glenda) is still there.
6: Mountbatten SMC (SPP)
- Hardworking Jeannette could have become the next LTK in terms of voting swing.
7: Sengkang West SMC (WP)
- Chances rated somewhat lower than Jeannette because those affected in the columbarium saga has already absorbed into AMK GRC
8: Marine Parade GRC (WP - 5 seats)
- ESM is still contesting the ward, but the tide turns to WP's favor because the anchor minister is Tan Chuan Jin instead.
Notably, Braddell Heights (Serangoon MRT, Nex area) and Joo Chiat ward are pro-opposition. Geylang Serai & ESM ward is likely pro-PAP and Kembangan & Ubi estate ward is leaning PAP.
9: Nee Soon GRC (WP - 5 seats)
Most likely led by newbie team. But the previous result is also hovering at 41% as well.
10: Holland-Bukit Timah GRC (SDP - 4 seats)
Best scoring team on the GRC away from the East side.
11: Bukit Batok SMC (SDP)
Depends how good the candidate is, given that SDP is determined to win the nearly won SMC back in 1991.
12: Bukit Panjang SMC (SDP)
3rd attempt and hopefully the voters there decided to change their CDC mayor given that Teo Ho Pin the incumbent is one of those responsible for the town council's largest loss of $8 million in minibonds saga across all Town Councils in Singapore.
13: Marsiling - Yew Tee GRC (SDP - 4 seats)
No information about the polling tendencies here, but I hope SDP can campaign about the 'slum' transport facilities along Yew Tee (Extremely crowded with lack of feeder bus choice. This is due to the way Yew Tee can only be connected to CCK Town Center by bus or Sungei Kadut Industrial Estate by walk, car, and cab)
14: Yuhua SMC (SDP)
Not that lady who was detained in 1987 because it may be perceived as personal agenda.
15: Jalan Besar GRC (WP - 4 seats)
Lily Neo is simply too popular and Chinatown ward is clearly pro-PAP. It could be offset by the Kallang ward. Whampoa ward could be tussle, given that the NSP candidate was not that fantastic in the first place.
16: Tanjong Pagar GRC (SingFirst - 5 seats)
Never contested before. It could be a tussle, leaning towards PAP. Some people hated Tan Jee Say for the 2011 Presidential Election also does not do well for him either.
17: Radin Mas SMC (RP)
Depends who is standing there, high chance if KJ himself is asking for the former Anson SMC's resident support for him as the support for the JBJ. If not KJ, I doubt this seat could be won.
Total: 27 + 11 + 1 + 5 + 1 = 45 seats, barely enough to form a coalition government
For those who are hardcore enough and hoped for Opposition to win 2/3 majority instead, the following parties will have to win in order to get the 15 seats to have 60 seats in parliament.
SPP to win at least 2 seats, including Mountbatten SMC
SPP-DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) joint team to win their 5 seats
PPP to win all 4 seats
SingFirst to win all 10 seats, including Tanjong Pagar GRC
18: Potong Pasir SMC (SPP)
I think the trend for this SMC is more towards weakening of opposition support, specifically the Chiam's support. This is clearly shown in results of 1991 GE VS 1997 GE.
Perhaps, I am wrong this time or maybe the Independent will help to swing at least 5 to 10% of those who voted Sitoh just because they don't like family politics, concern of Chiam's advanced age without viable successor. Moreover, Lina has announced that this will be her last stint in GE in Chinese papers might hurt her chances as well.
19: Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC (SPP-DPP - 5 seats)
The difference is still not sort out between SPP and DPP. According to Pwee, he wanted to assemble all the best candidate pooled from both sides given that DPP has at least 2 ministerial calibre candidate (Pwee & Harvard graduate) but Lina wished to allocate at least 3 from SPP side for the familiarity appeal towards voters as a strong grounds.
With such an uneasy alliance, I am inclined to believe that it will be hard to win the fence sitters middle ground voters.
20: Choa Chu Kang GRC (PPP - 4 seats)
There are still people being sceptical of Goh Meng Seng himself. However judging from recent Facebook Page posting, I think he is a changed person and he deserved to have the needed 13% swing for him to be elected.
21: Jurong GRC (SingFirst - 5 seats)
Similar to Tanjong Pagar GRC, some people would have upset about Tan Jee Say entering into the 2011 Presidential Election fray and deny Tan Cheng Bock the chance to be the president instead. Otherwise, actually all of the SingFirst contested seats would be SDP as well and give SDP rise to be the 2nd largest number of seats to be contested (22) after WP (27 or 28, depending if WP to back out last minute in MacPherson SMC).
Total: 45 + 1 + 5 + 4 + 5 = 60 seats
Thus, whether NSP / SDA is of relevance or not, is not so important after all!!!
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