Singapore Savings Bonds

sglandscape

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The Singapore dollar is too strong.

A large part of our domestic employment isn't real, just foreign multinationals parking their business units staffed with mostly foreign staff due to our lax financial, environmental, labour regulations and ready infrastructure. As the infrastructure of India, Malaysia and Indonesia improves, office rental, expat rental and cost of living soar, they will be moving those business units out. In fact, some are already shifting to Malaysia and Indonesia. With wfh culture, VPN, Teams and WhatsApp, there's actually no need for an office here. The team can be in Malaysia or Jakarta and have 3 or 4 times a year meeting in Singapore for team bonding.

The issue with SSB is it is in SGD. If SGD depreciates, the value of SSB will decline.
Not sure if you got the direction wrong? If SGD depreciates, the SGS rates (and thus ssb) would likely rise (since they need to be compensated for the lower value of SGD when the bond matures) at least VS USD rates.

What's keeping the SSB low now is actually a strong SGD.

The other factors you describe may be true prior to the recent events, but hints of deglobalisation is happening, and the move to chesper country would slow and that could put SG at risk, but not for the reasons you describe. To the extent possible, likely more onshoring for foreign companies back to their headquarters.
 

888888888888

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However, it is important to note that exchange rates are determined by a variety of factors, including but not limited to interest rates. Other factors that could impact the value of SGD against USD include economic growth, inflation rates, political stability, and global economic conditions. Therefore, it is not certain that a decrease in SG rates would lead to a corresponding decrease in the value of SGD against USD.​
and not forgetting FTs..
 

BBCWatcher

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What's keeping the SSB low now is actually a strong SGD.
It's actually about expectations of future SGD exchange rates to be precise. And SSBs specifically aren't internationally available and are keyed to the 10 year Singapore Government Securities rate, so they're a little different than some other interest rates.

....But even that's not clear. It's possible to have global market expectations of a "flat" or "weak" Singapore dollar while also having lower interest rates. That can happen if there are compensating supply and demand factors. For example, if Singapore dollar denominated savings vehicles can command a premium due to their perceived expected safety over longer terms. Or if market participants (mostly domestic) are satisfied with lower interest rates because they have fewer alternatives and/or are more risk averse. (Yes, this seems to be true to some extent. I really can't fully explain Singapore's mortgage rates in relation to high quality savings vehicles.) Or tax-related reasons. (I generally have to pay U.S. income tax on bond and bank account interest. U.S. municipal bonds are a notable exception.) Or some combination.
The other factors you describe may be true prior to the recent events, but hints of deglobalisation is happening, and the move to chesper country would slow and that could put SG at risk, but not for the reasons you describe. To the extent possible, likely more onshoring for foreign companies back to their headquarters.
I think we can be more specific: "de-China-fication" is what we're really talking about, right? COVID, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and to some extent Russia's invasion of Ukraine have shaken confidence in China's reliability within global supply chains. Global multinational companies are now walking briskly (but not running), I'd say, to diversify their supply chains. They want at least emergency backup options in countries such as Vietnam, India, Malaysia, and a few others just in case the Chinese government does something unwise.

I'm not currently predicting that China will decouple/be decoupled from the global economy. However, businesses are definitely making contingency plans.

I'm not exactly sure how Singapore will do if there's a China decoupling event (in that unlikely event), but I think Singapore would be at least relatively OK. Singapore happens to be the current and primary beneficiary of China's abandonment of the "One Country, Two Systems" policy with respect to Hong Kong. And to be clear nobody in Singapore as far as I know is wishing anything except the best for Hong Kong and Hong Kongers.
 

BBCWatcher

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About the Singapore dollar exchange rate with respect to Singapore Savings Bonds.... I think we need to dispel the myth that a "strong" Singapore dollar is necessarily good and a "weak" Singapore dollar is necessarily bad. The monetary goal is a "balanced" Singapore dollar, a domestic currency that functions well for Singapore's open market economy that's heavily reliant on imports but that also employs a lot of people in export-oriented firms. At any/every moment in time we hope the Singapore dollar is neither too weak nor too strong.

Singapore Savings Bonds are fantastic to help save for short-term goals (weddings, university tuition payments in Singapore, a baby coming soon, home down payments and renovations, starting a small business, a big vacation, etc.) and for a few months of emergency reserve funds, beyond an ordinary bank account holding a couple months of emergency reserves. However, if your planned future expense is overseas — paying a university tuition bill in the United States or in the United Kingdom, for example — then SSBs aren't terrific. I'd be looking at accumulating U.S. dollar or British pound bonds (or a low cost short-term bond index fund) to meet such savings goals.
 

888888888888

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What about? Can elaborate?

haha.. wasn't a jab or anything as have some angmo friends here. touchring1 is typing business offices are relocating to MY, Indo using vpn, whatsapp then meet here three times a year. under normal circumstances, would you leave for other neighbouring country if the exchange rate is say maybe <5 five times less than yours? won't be entirely improbable things change and this happens, but specifically how many, which are the ones? didn't the billionaires continued staying longer since the pandemic?
 

touchring1

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About the Singapore dollar exchange rate with respect to Singapore Savings Bonds.... I think we need to dispel the myth that a "strong" Singapore dollar is necessarily good and a "weak" Singapore dollar is necessarily bad. The monetary goal is a "balanced" Singapore dollar, a domestic currency that functions well for Singapore's open market economy that's heavily reliant on imports but that also employs a lot of people in export-oriented firms. At any/every moment in time we hope the Singapore dollar is neither too weak nor too strong.

In my opinion, a weak SGD is definitely better for Singaporean workers and companies than a strong SGD. Don't give me the crap about inflation. 80%-90% of the inflation we experience is from rentals and taxes (work permit, COE, GST etc) rather than imported.

Singapore Savings Bonds are fantastic to help save for short-term goals (weddings, university tuition payments in Singapore, a baby coming soon, home down payments and renovations, starting a small business, a big vacation, etc.) and for a few months of emergency reserve funds, beyond an ordinary bank account holding a couple months of emergency reserves. However, if your planned future expense is overseas — paying a university tuition bill in the United States or in the United Kingdom, for example — then SSBs aren't terrific. I'd be looking at accumulating U.S. dollar or British pound bonds (or a low cost short-term bond index fund) to meet such savings goals.

Actually, one of the main reasons I'm relooking into SSB is because of the recent DBS internet banking scare. Being not able to login to my account for such a long time doesn't give me confidence. It's not that I don't trust the authorities but I don't want to put myself into a position of having to even think about it. Better to spread the eggs. The only problem with SSB is if withdrawal is needed, would need to wait to the following month. Of course, hopefully SSB don't have conditions that can reject withdrawal.
 

reddevil0728

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In my opinion, a weak SGD is definitely better for Singaporean workers and companies than a strong SGD. Don't give me the crap about inflation. 80%-90% of the inflation we experience is from rentals and taxes (work permit, COE, GST etc) rather than imported.



Actually, one of the main reasons I'm relooking into SSB is because of the recent DBS internet banking scare. Being not able to login to my account for such a long time doesn't give me confidence. It's not that I don't trust the authorities but I don't want to put myself into a position of having to even think about it. Better to spread the eggs. The only problem with SSB is if withdrawal is needed, would need to wait to the following month. Of course, hopefully SSB don't have conditions that can reject withdrawal.
Then ssb is not really the right vehicle? Is more like you need to spread.
 

touchring1

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haha.. wasn't a jab or anything as have some angmo friends here. touchring1 is typing business offices are relocating to MY, Indo using vpn, whatsapp then meet here three times a year. under normal circumstances, would you leave for other neighbouring country if the exchange rate is say maybe <5 five times less than yours? won't be entirely improbable things change and this happens, but specifically how many, which are the ones? didn't the billionaires continued staying longer since the pandemic?

It's already happening. Remote working means you can be employed in Singapore, receive SG pay but live in KL. Also, KL isn't really that bad, can live in Genting highlands and commute to work in KL office 2 times a week. Breathe mountain air, cool weather, eat organic food, drink unrecycled water...

TKL recently posted about his good life in Johor and he has a small office. So it's not that far fetched.

20 years ago, or even 5 years ago, it's not possible. Today, there's VR, Whatsapp, VPN. Latest VR oculus pro even lets you do VR meetings in 3D. The technology is advancing so fast, it can replicate the office at home with your colleagues. Now, AI, probably in the future, there will be AI co-workers you can talk to them in VR. Try to have an open mind.
 

Peanut15

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Actually, one of the main reasons I'm relooking into SSB is because of the recent DBS internet banking scare. Being not able to login to my account for such a long time doesn't give me confidence. It's not that I don't trust the authorities but I don't want to put myself into a position of having to even think about it. Better to spread the eggs. The only problem with SSB is if withdrawal is needed, would need to wait to the following month. Of course, hopefully SSB don't have conditions that can reject withdrawal.

SDIC insure up to 75k per account somehow backed by Gov. the IT outage only suggest you should have more than 1 bank account rather than not trust banking system.


SDIC is a company limited by guarantee under the Companies Act. The board of directors is accountable to the Minister in charge of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).
 
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