SINGAPORE (Oct 20): CLSA Research has initiated a “buy” call on SingPost with a target price of $2.50.
SingPost, Asean’s top e-commerce logistics service provider, has used the profit generated from its cash-cow mail segment to diversify its business at the right time, says CLSA analyst Paul Wan in the report dated Oct 20.
With e-commerce enjoying rapid growth in Asia, the company has also expanded its geographical exposure in the region, as consumers are no longer restricted by bricks and mortar.
Domestically, SingPost is also providing more services to improve delivery capabilities and cater for the influx of packages.
Rising incomes and more households with access to the Internet have allowed more people to purchase goods online.
Coupled with SingPost’s easily scalable online platform, more companies will move their retail operations online, ultimately driving overall sector growth.
“We expect the group to deliver a 7.5% organic topline CAGR over 2014-16, with an average operating margin of 3.9%,” says Wan.
To be sure, SingPost’s traditional mail business is in decline due to rising internet penetration in Singapore.
But the group’s monopolistic status means this segment will remain highly profitable, with operating margins averaging 27-29% over 2014-16.
“We expect B2C overseas small-package volume to increase and partially offset the fall in domestic volume, while postage tariffs should continue to rise on increasing package size,” adds Wan.
SingPost’s share price is up 37% this year.
But this is a smaller return than its regional peer Sinotrans (598 HK), which has gone up 102% in the same period.
Historically, SingPost’s PB has moved in line with ROE which has been on a downward trend over the past few years.
“We believe ROE has bottomed out and forecast it to reach 23% over the next three years. The dividend payout is stable, at 90%, with a yield of 3.4%. Buy for 38% implied upside to our DCF-based $2.50 target,” concludes Wan.
SingPost is up 1.6% at $1.855 as at 1:12 p.m. Singapore time.