SMRT *Official* (SGX: S53)

spenchua

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ComfortDelGro
FY11 (Dec)
11.27 6.00 $1.695 3.540% 15.04 Interim 2.7ct ; Final 3.3ct

SMRT
FY12 (Mar)
7.9 7.45 $1.695 4.395% 21.46 Interim 1.75ct ; Final 5.7ct

EPS Div Current Ratio PE DivBreakdown

With the above number why would one put money in SMRT instead of Comfortdelgro? Is it all about Dividend?
Thanks
 

abcwee

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i havent done research on this....just thinking out loud here

1. could it be SMRT dont really have a competitor in the train biz? while ComfortDelgro biz is facing pressure from competitors from all sides, like bus, train, taxi.
2. Govt promoting more for commuting on train, than by other public transport
3. SMRT has moved outside of the core biz, into retail, which is doing well
4. SMRT growth rate vs Comfortdelgro growth rate?
 

spenchua

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Thanks...but Comfortdelgro too have;
- Train Business with New line coming soon
- Gov support on Public Transport...CMD is running SBS too
- Outside Core Business, CMD too have Vicom...high COE=More old car=more Business
- Growth...CMD have Business in China, London, Aust...maybe more risk (Currency)
 

matthew5025

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My guess is that SMRT business is not risky. Do you expect SMRT to die tomorrow? Of course not. SMRT will also receive "extraordinary govt. support" and has a dominant presence in the rail sector. Yes, SBST has rail lines, including the upcoming DTL, but most of the commuters will take the "main" lines, the NSL and the EWL. However, SMRT will invest huge amounts in the rail infrastructure, but the effect of this is slightly mitigated due to the cost share agreement with the government.
 

direbmem

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just split your money half half buy both?
i have both.
 

compro_1975

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chiu dun happi so early ar.... the lines can tahan first a not...
 

Paul Lee

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I need to remind everyone that all these comments about 'SMRT wont die', 'got govt support' etc.. are just conjunctures with no factual basis.

Temersek may be a major shareholder now, but they may divest in the future. Also, there is no guarantee that PAP will continue to the govt of the day. If WP ever wins a majority in parliament to form the govt, it is their intention to nationalise the public transport - which can mean the dismantling of SMRT.

Also SMRT has an operating license to operate the NSL and EWL. The operating license expires in 2028. There is no guarantee that SMRT will continue to operate the NSL and EWL when the operating license is up for renewal. Granted that 2028 is a good 12 years from now. A lot of things can happen in 12 yrs.

Anyone who want to invest in SMRT need to consider the above. I looked into SMRT a few times but despite the relatively good dividend record, I walked away becos SMRT operates in a highly regulated environment. LTA can and will impose additional operating requirements to appease the demanding public. My feel is that the day of 'high dividends' under Saw Phaik Huat is over. (Not veste in CDG, SBST or SMRT)
 

xinus84

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high dividends or not, better than inflation! stock price has low volatility, so you can sleep in peace. this stock is popular with aunties, uncles, retirees, and whoever who cannot take the shocks of sudden price jolts.
 

matthew5025

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I need to remind everyone that all these comments about 'SMRT wont die', 'got govt support' etc.. are just conjunctures with no factual basis.

Temersek may be a major shareholder now, but they may divest in the future. Also, there is no guarantee that PAP will continue to the govt of the day. If WP ever wins a majority in parliament to form the govt, it is their intention to nationalise the public transport - which can mean the dismantling of SMRT.

Also SMRT has an operating license to operate the NSL and EWL. The operating license expires in 2028. There is no guarantee that SMRT will continue to operate the NSL and EWL when the operating license is up for renewal. Granted that 2028 is a good 12 years from now. A lot of things can happen in 12 yrs.

Anyone who want to invest in SMRT need to consider the above. I looked into SMRT a few times but despite the relatively good dividend record, I walked away becos SMRT operates in a highly regulated environment. LTA can and will impose additional operating requirements to appease the demanding public. My feel is that the day of 'high dividends' under Saw Phaik Huat is over. (Not veste in CDG, SBST or SMRT)

Quote from S&P:

SMRT Corp. Ltd. 'AAA' Ratings
Affirmed On Rising Likelihood Of
Extraordinary Government Support;
Outlook Stable

You can read their whole report, not going to C&P it here.
 

Dividends Warrior

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I need to remind everyone that all these comments about 'SMRT wont die', 'got govt support' etc.. are just conjunctures with no factual basis.

Temersek may be a major shareholder now, but they may divest in the future. Also, there is no guarantee that PAP will continue to the govt of the day. If WP ever wins a majority in parliament to form the govt, it is their intention to nationalise the public transport - which can mean the dismantling of SMRT.

Also SMRT has an operating license to operate the NSL and EWL. The operating license expires in 2028. There is no guarantee that SMRT will continue to operate the NSL and EWL when the operating license is up for renewal. Granted that 2028 is a good 12 years from now. A lot of things can happen in 12 yrs.

Anyone who want to invest in SMRT need to consider the above. I looked into SMRT a few times but despite the relatively good dividend record, I walked away becos SMRT operates in a highly regulated environment. LTA can and will impose additional operating requirements to appease the demanding public. My feel is that the day of 'high dividends' under Saw Phaik Huat is over. (Not veste in CDG, SBST or SMRT)

The reason I shun SMRT is the high oil price.

Same reason why I shun SIA too.
 

WindBoi

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i think there are a few areas that we can push our thinking:

1) technology obsolete
2) losing monopoly
3) subsitutes

my feel is that no monopoly is not a bad thing. there may be enough of the pie

it will depend on the level of substitutes.if you look at china, the substitute for expressway is high speed rail and air travel.

in this case the competition are buses, taxi (which they have stake in as well)

Some times it is not able losing it in the future, but how badly they can be beaten down. a good example is SBS transit. used to be a smashing 5-6% yielder. but due to increase capex now its in the doldrums? this may be an even better phoenix rising.
 

Carnage

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Anyone who want to invest in SMRT need to consider the above. I looked into SMRT a few times but despite the relatively good dividend record, I walked away becos SMRT operates in a highly regulated environment. LTA can and will impose additional operating requirements to appease the demanding public. My feel is that the day of 'high dividends' under Saw Phaik Huat is over. (Not veste in CDG, SBST or SMRT)
Love this paragraph.

I looked into SMRT numbers to understand why they keep claiming that they are making losses despite increasing transport fees and ever increasing population taking their trains and buses every year.

You look at their footfalls number at their stations, they are all the important ones with high retail space.

The crux is, they haven't increase much on maintenance costs and yet their margins haven't increased. With the focus on maintenance now, their margins will fall. I don't see how they will be able to maintain their dividend distribution going forward.

Frankly, at current price levels their yield isn't attractive to me.

Not vested. I prefer SBS who might have better mileage since they won the tender for DTL.

Edit: I don't support any Temasek investments mostly. The moment I see their name as a cornerstone, I close the page.
 
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lzydata

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Quote from S&P:

SMRT Corp. Ltd. 'AAA' Ratings
Affirmed On Rising Likelihood Of
Extraordinary Government Support;
Outlook Stable

You can read their whole report, not going to C&P it here.

I should point out that this is a credit rating. It means that in S&P's opinion, if you lend SMRT money, it will almost certainly pay you back in full and on time. SMRT is too big to fail and the government will not let it fail. It does not mean that SMRT's stock will do well or that it will maintain or grow its dividends.
 

Arsene_Wenger

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I should point out that this is a credit rating. It means that in S&P's opinion, if you lend SMRT money, it will almost certainly pay you back in full and on time. SMRT is too big to fail and the government will not let it fail. It does not mean that SMRT's stock will do well or that it will maintain or grow its dividends.

Unlikely it will fall. What kind of biz tat you dont come up with capex cost n suka suka gt free 10billions n with their retail rental which will generate income n u will still fail...

We wont see any competitors coming up since gov will nt allow it n comments like gov will change hand but how long will it take 4 yrs? 8 yrs or 12 yrs? Sg is very forgetful abt past events. Anyway like you hav said it doesnt mean e stock price will do well but e dividends r there n e price wont up dwn too much.
 

Carnage

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Unlikely it will fall. What kind of biz tat you dont come up with capex cost n suka suka gt free 10billions n with their retail rental which will generate income n u will still fail...

We wont see any competitors coming up since gov will nt allow it n comments like gov will change hand but how long will it take 4 yrs? 8 yrs or 12 yrs? Sg is very forgetful abt past events. Anyway like you hav said it doesnt mean e stock price will do well but e dividends r there n e price wont up dwn too much.
Ppl said the same about Lehman Brothers, the 4th biggest bank by assets in 2008. Look what happened.

Public transportation is a hot topic now because of the recent major stoppages last year. Given the current political climate where everything that fails for public infrastructure is blamed on the government, SMRT and SBS will be in the line of fire everytime something bad happens. And the government will issue fines just to appease the public.

Who's to say SMRT will continue to be profitable if one day the government decides to channel funding to SBS instead of SMRT for failing it 1 time too many? Won't it fail then?
 
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