The bears den

[littleredboy]

Are you vested in the US market or others?
I am vested in US.

Are you bearish on just US or others?
I am bullish on US. Hence my statement: This is a bull market.

And hey, I'm not trying to change your views. I do short indices and commodities, and long on certain stocks and etf (mid on certain others).

And if you want to remove anything, let's make it a fair test, and remove Trumpy and all his noise, and I believe Greater China and Asean market will be prospering. And if they prosper, world currency will be changing. Why do you think China is investing so much into African countries and building the One belt, and inviting anyone to join in, even US! The more countries join in, the more powerful China will become. This is inevitable, and US will not allow that.

Frankly, I am also bullish on emerging market.

Where is the bull market outside US? See most global markets have gone nowhere in ages. US markets are up only due to buy backs. I read somewhere, if you remove buybacks, then US earnings are in a recession.

Buybacks is due to unsustainable tax cuts and deficits in the US. USD is the world reserve currency so they were able to do the tax cuts. But how sustainable is that?

 

[Merg91]

Are some SSI Warriors getting very nervous?
Just because Trump did what they expected him to do?

 

[blue_denim24]

Clearly Trump has backtracked a bit on trade war . Now if China responds with a softening stand, there will be a decent bull run. But all this is for short term. For long term perspective, the yield curve is sending dangerous signals already

 

[Lasogette]

Are humans naturally pessimistic?
This bear thread more popular than bull barn even when this is a bull's market

Lol investors usually wanna buy cheap. So can't blame us for being excited, I think alot of people got huge warchest here.

 

[littleredboy]

So be like water, go with the flow.
Make money long or short, be it good or bad economy.

The most dangerous time and my fear is when waters are still and nothing is moving. Stagnant waters kill everyone.

 

[lightchaser]

So be like water, go with the flow.
Make money long or short, be it good or bad economy.

The most dangerous time and my fear is when waters are still and nothing is moving. Stagnant waters kill everyone.

stagnant waters favour the dividend warriors !

 

[Merg91]

Not a period of stagnant water now.

stagnant waters favour the dividend warriors !

 

[littleredboy]

Oh ya hor. Stable stable also good for them

stagnant waters favour the dividend warriors !

 

[MrHighlander]

Hang Seng and STI has turned red

 

[revhappy]

Hang Seng and STI has turned red

Yeah, Europe too.

 

[Merg91]

Definitely feeling very red when you are in bear den

Yeah, Europe too.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

stagnant waters favour the dividend warriors !

Don't let the secret out!

 

[Mr.Canberra]

 

[revhappy]

US yield curve inverts! Jonathan Golub of CS the Uber bull is asking for Moar fed cuts.

 

[MrHighlander]

Holy cow 2s-10s inverted !

US yield curve inverts! Jonathan Golub of CS the Uber bull is asking for Moar fed cuts.

 

[revhappy]

Jonathan Golub says the US stocks yield 2% so there is no where else to go, but to stocks. He says current 17 PE multiple will go to 20 by the end of the cycle because of TINA.

 

[blue_denim24]

CNBC:

There have been five inversions of the 2-year and 10-year yields since 1978 and all were precursors to a recession, but there is a significant lag, according to data from Credit Suisse. A recession occurred, on average, 22 months after the inversion, Credit Suisse shows. And the S&P 500 actually enjoyed average returns of 15% 18 months after an inversion before it eventually turns.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/stock-markets-wall-street-in-focus-amid-earnings-economic-data.html


So bull run for next 22 odd months ?

 

[littleredboy]

Interesting night tonight. Even a spoilt clock is right two times a day

 

[Mecisteus]

CNBC:

There have been five inversions of the 2-year and 10-year yields since 1978 and all were precursors to a recession, but there is a significant lag, according to data from Credit Suisse. A recession occurred, on average, 22 months after the inversion, Credit Suisse shows. And the S&P 500 actually enjoyed average returns of 15% 18 months after an inversion before it eventually turns.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/14/stock-markets-wall-street-in-focus-amid-earnings-economic-data.html


So bull run for next 22 odd months ?

I expect short term negative.

I did mention a max 8% correction. I think S&P hit 5% only recently.

After that, it's probably a Xmas rally.

 

[revhappy]

Law of diminishing returns. Trumps tweet effect didn't last more than a day.