The bears den

[DukeCS33]

Interesting observation. Similar to having a high proportion of cash stash away somewhere. But need to guard against reckless actions though.

Yes. And that is the reason he does not care about headline news. If a headline news impact any particular stock, he would ignore it as he thinks he does not have an edge trading it. Institutions would know of the news before it hits the masses and retail end up being the suckers buying when these insto players are selling.

 

[Mecisteus]

My old man trades the SG markets only. His style of trading is very similar to yours - contrarian within certain parameters. He is old school - no charts, no fundamental analysis but he has an excellent memory for price action. His trading income fall outstrips his monthly pay as a school teacher. I have asked him if he should quit and trade full time and he gave me a very good answer - one's psychological makeup would be different - he earns a stable income as a teacher and that takes care of family expenses. Without that, he would be trading with scared monies and that would hamper his ability to take CONTRARIAN trades.

Having a full-time job is the best.

It's true about the psychological part.

 

[articland05]

My old man trades the SG markets only. His style of trading is very similar to yours - contrarian within certain parameters. He is old school - no charts, no fundamental analysis but he has an excellent memory for price action. His trading income fall outstrips his monthly pay as a school teacher. I have asked him if he should quit and trade full time and he gave me a very good answer - one's psychological makeup would be different - he earns a stable income as a teacher and that takes care of family expenses. Without that, he would be trading with scared monies and that would hamper his ability to take CONTRARIAN trades.

this is very true

 

[MrHighlander]

Any view on Eagle Hospitality Trust? Price dropped more than 15% last Friday. Got margin of safety ?

 

[DukeCS33]

Because there are still bearish people staying out of the market.

Once this group of people enters the market, that will be the end of the bull run.

I think there is a chance that US market will break the previous highs. Probably next 2 weeks?

Like I predicted previously, the bull run will continue till next year and if it does, that is the time I will become more fearful.

This S&P rally to a new high is not backed by volume and it does not give me confidence that we are going to see an extended bull run. I would rather sit it out and continue my day trading.

 

[DukeCS33]

EBAY and HAS may be ripe for a quick bounce if we have index rallying tonight.

 

[Mecisteus]

This S&P rally to a new high is not backed by volume and it does not give me confidence that we are going to see an extended bull run. I would rather sit it out and continue my day trading.

I looked through the S&P500 weekly chart since 2017.

Volume was quite random and nothing spectacular but yet S&P500 is way much higher now.

Even at the bottom of the week in Dec 2018, the volume was pathetic for a white candle.

For individual stocks, the volume is probably more meaningful. For an index, no.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

 

[DukeCS33]

I looked through the S&P500 weekly chart since 2017.

Volume was quite random and nothing spectacular but yet S&P500 is way much higher now.

Even at the bottom of the week in Dec 2018, the volume was pathetic for a white candle.

For individual stocks, the volume is probably more meaningful. For an index, no.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

It really depends on how you interpret volume. Dec 18 there was a red candle that came down with significantly high volume that suggested climatic action. Subsequently, we have a white candle that was on low volume. The immediate question was where was the supply that has been pushing prices down then? A lack of such supply may imply that the selling has abated or exhausted and hence a rebound from there. And typically the rebounding candle need not be on high volume as supply has been exhausted.... takes little effort to push prices up.
Generally, I would like to see volume backing price rallies for the momentum to sustain. On the current price action, my interpretation is that the rally in prices did not attract any new supply - so this rally may continue on light volume but is it therefore, reason for me to go long on my swing trading or to continue my intraday trades given the macro uncertainties? The considerations I had, did not favor extending the duration of my trades. I can be wrong - the absence of supply can mean that prices can continue to rally but I have chosen to take a more conservative stance and not extend my trading duration.

 

[Mecisteus]

Trade war is going to get resolved and interest rates are going to remain low.

I don't think Trump would want to spoil the bull run for now.

His election is coming soon.

I think we can see another 20-30% upside?

 

[MrHighlander]

S&P500 all time high

Trump is gloating

 

[revhappy]

Trade war is going to get resolved and interest rates are going to remain low.

I don't think Trump would want to spoil the bull run for now.

His election is coming soon.

I think we can see another 20-30% upside?

Trump is making every effort to create a bubble, without any deal signed yet, he wants to make the stock market keeping going up. I dont think even bulls will think that is healthy when the president is talking up the stock market. They would rather he shut up and let the markets find its own level based on fundamentals and then have a healthy rally when economic indicators show signs of bottoming up. Now we are either headed for a permanently high plateau or a spectacular crash.

 

[Mecisteus]

Trump is making every effort to create a bubble, without any deal signed yet, he wants to make the stock market keeping going up. I dont think even bulls will think that is healthy when the president is talking up the stock market. They would rather he shut up and let the markets find its own level based on fundamentals and then have a healthy rally when economic indicators show signs of bottoming up. Now we are either headed for a permanently high plateau or a spectacular crash.

Don't be so sour.

I take whatever the market gives me. I'm neither fully invested nor fully cash. Staying moderate is the way to go.

 

[candy crush]

do u all think it is a gd time to invest in fitbit now?

Sent from 我好想射.... using GAGT

 

[DukeCS33]

do u all think it is a gd time to invest in fitbit now?

Sent from 我好想射.... using GAGT

Google thinks it is.

 

[CaptainTeo]

Dow Jones and nasdaq are up yesterday.

 

[churnmaster]

I take whatever the market gives me. I'm neither fully invested nor fully cash. Staying moderate is the way to go.

I agree with Mike.

 

[candy crush]

two stock i m interested this nov

1) fitbit, price is low and cheap
2) slack, the stock price seem to increase gradually, but seem to be still weak

Sent from 我好想射.... using GAGT

 

[candy crush]

knn how come fitbit share drop yesterday?

Sent from 我好想射.... using GAGT

 

[Shiny Things]

two stock i m interested this nov

1) fitbit, price is low and cheap

You're three days late on Fitbit. It might have been cheap before the Alphabet takeover bid leaked, but now it's got a takeover premium priced in.

knn how come fitbit share drop yesterday?

I'm guessing everyone who got lucky and owned it when the Alphabet bid leaked is selling it and locking in the windfall profit; and all the suckers who bought it after the Alphabet bid leaked are realising that nothing's even been announced yet.

 

[DukeCS33]

You're three days late on Fitbit. It might have been cheap before the Alphabet takeover bid leaked, but now it's got a takeover premium priced in.


I'm guessing everyone who got lucky and owned it when the Alphabet bid leaked is selling it and locking in the windfall profit; and all the suckers who bought it after the Alphabet bid leaked are realising that nothing's even been announced yet.

The volume profile shows that current level is a key resistance point. This was the price level where many bought into the stock from 2 to 3 years ago and when it dropped, we have many trapped buyers. Those trapped buyers may be trying to get out now since they were stuck when it ranged from 4.70 to 8. Unless there is a confirmed takeover, there would be an overhang of supply. This is not a stock for short term momentum trading as the news is already out. So unless one has a firm view on the takeover, it may be very risky at this price point.