The bears den

[Mecisteus]

phase 1 trade deal is not done. how can it be done without china involvement?

The deal is almost there.

Not sure if will flip prata or not.

Anyway, non of my concern. To be on the safe side, it is good to sell some shares while the market is at greed level.

 

[DukeCS33]

phase 1 trade deal is not done. how can it be done without china involvement?

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

It is as good as done. But the so called phase 1 is a mere ceasefire. Will not really call it a deal. For me, I will just trade based on market direction.

 

[coolhead]

It is as good as done. But the so called phase 1 is a mere ceasefire. Will not really call it a deal. For me, I will just trade based on market direction.

The deal is almost there.

Not sure if will flip prata or not.

Anyway, non of my concern. To be on the safe side, it is good to sell some shares while the market is at greed level.

hard to be done when usa assumes china will agree to the ageeement.

i remembered china said it will only agree when usa rolls back existing tariffs. so now the ball is in china court.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[DukeCS33]

hard to be done when usa assumes china will agree to the ageeement.

i remembered china said it will only agree when usa rolls back existing tariffs. so now the ball is in china court.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

No one would know for sure and the propensity for flip flop is always high.

 

[wutawa]

SG and HK stocks are up today, looks like FOMO rally is starting.

Sreits falling..

 

[limster]

UK market up.. by quite a bit. probably my biggest one day gain since the GFC.

 

[DukeCS33]

I have this nagging feeling that the Chinese may pull a fast one. They have been silent so far and I suspect that Trump's deal did not meet their objectives of having tariffs rolled back. Otherwise, they would have already made some positive noises around acceptance. I am going to sit this one out until such time the deal gets signed and then play the buy rumor sell fact gameplay.... some of the stocks that have rallied were on the back of climatic volume and this is always an alert warning to me.

 

[Okenba]

Apparently, the so-called deal approved by Trump involves China agreeing to almost double their purchase of agricultural goods from the US.

Doesn't sound too realistic to double the amount...

 

[coolhead]

I have this nagging feeling that the Chinese may pull a fast one. They have been silent so far and I suspect that Trump's deal did not meet their objectives of having tariffs rolled back. Otherwise, they would have already made some positive noises around acceptance. I am going to sit this one out until such time the deal gets signed and then play the buy rumor sell fact gameplay.... some of the stocks that have rallied were on the back of climatic volume and this is always an alert warning to me.

trump just tweeted that he didn't agree to rolling back tariffs. what a ***** joke lmao.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[Mecisteus]

trump just tweeted that he didn't agree to rolling back tariffs. what a ***** joke lmao.

It is really a joke to follow his tweets.

I just act based on price actions like what the traders usually do.

 

[Panerex]

trump just tweeted that he didn't agree to rolling back tariffs. what a ***** joke lmao.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

Any source for this?

 

[limster]

Any source for this?

if its a tweet, the source is twitter? You do know what a tweet is?

 

[coolhead]

seems like a sell the news reaction after the trade deal.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

 

[DukeCS33]

seems like a sell the news reaction after the trade deal.

Posted from PCWX using Redmi K20 Pro

Yeah... many of the stocks that exhibited strong momentum moves did a retrace or reversal. I typically trade momentum moves but did not trust the price action of several setups... they were either climatic or the move higher was on the back of rather low volume and all these represent anomalies to me. When SP futures gave back its gains just before the opening bell, it further validated my suspicions. That said, I am going to move back into Swing trading. I think after some profit taking, we may see ideal conditions for such plays.... at least until the next catalyst which I think may be from the interest rate side of things.

 

[bullshitregister]

Seems like this den has been super quiet after all the new all time highs getting hit...

Wanted to find out from the seasoned masters here your thoughts on how to 'continue' being bearish the equity market. I was thinking if its possible to construct a portfolio that would be neutral to the upside but then profitable on the downside.

Rationale: Last few months has proven to be very painful (P&L wise) for someone who was outright short the equity market. I don't claim to know when the market will turn and how much, but would like to be positioned for it.

So my thoughts for a portfolio are, to be long bonds, and then use the interest from the bonds to buy longer-dated equity puts. If stock market rises, i'll be neutral (maybe make a bit if bonds increase in value). If stock market is flat, i'll be flat, and if stock market tanks, hopefully I make profit with the puts.

Has anybody tried something like this and do you have any advice or help on how to construct a portfolio like this?

TLDR: how do I construct a portfolio that preserves capital through equity upside but makes money on equity downside

 

[revhappy]

It doesn't pay to be bearish and stay in cash. Timing the market is difficult. So I think it is better to have some allocation to equities and choose markets that are not overvalued and have good dividend yield. So even if market falls, you still collect yield which is higher than cash. I am invested around 30% mostly in Asian markets, Singapore, HK and India.

I am also doing a bit of options spread selling to generate some income. Last 2 months, I was able to earn about S$2k. My aim is to generate about $500-1k each month, using this method.

 

[limster]

So I think it is better to have some allocation to equities and choose markets that are not overvalued and have good dividend yield. So even if market falls, you still collect yield which is higher than cash. I am invested around 30% mostly in Asian markets, Singapore, HK and India.

Welcome to the dividend investing club, if only for 30% of your portfolio! Power of CD!

 

[revhappy]

USD is falling finally! How low do you guys think it will go? US yields are rising, 10Y is at 1.9 Vs SGD 1.7, so based on yield differential it doesn't make sense for USD to fall a lot.

 

[lasnoblur]

Seems like this den has been super quiet after all the new all time highs getting hit...

Wanted to find out from the seasoned masters here your thoughts on how to 'continue' being bearish the equity market. I was thinking if its possible to construct a portfolio that would be neutral to the upside but then profitable on the downside.

Rationale: Last few months has proven to be very painful (P&L wise) for someone who was outright short the equity market. I don't claim to know when the market will turn and how much, but would like to be positioned for it.

So my thoughts for a portfolio are, to be long bonds, and then use the interest from the bonds to buy longer-dated equity puts. If stock market rises, i'll be neutral (maybe make a bit if bonds increase in value). If stock market is flat, i'll be flat, and if stock market tanks, hopefully I make profit with the puts.

Has anybody tried something like this and do you have any advice or help on how to construct a portfolio like this?

TLDR: how do I construct a portfolio that preserves capital through equity upside but makes money on equity downside

There are only 3 main ways.
1. Long
2. Short
3. Sideline or invest in stable products like bonds like u mentioned.

 

[Mecisteus]

TLDR: how do I construct a portfolio that preserves capital through equity upside but makes money on equity downside

So basically,

You don't want to lose money when the market goes up
But you want to make money when the market goes down

Am I correct?

There isn't such a strategy. Even a fully hedged long portfolio has to cost you a premium. Your premium is still your max loss.

This is the same like,

You want to make money when the market goes up
You don't want to lose money when the market goes down