Common theme of highly sought after models is rarity and much of rarity stems from those Rolex models either being unpopular, transitional or defective back in the day. Rarity also stems from age, just like there are much fewer 90 year olds in the world than 30 year olds.
Unpopular factor is clearly no longer relevant, defects would be blasphemy for the Rolex brand at this day and age, which leaves transitional models being your best bet on getting the next Rolex "hit".
In modern times, that would be the first generations Kermit sub and to a much lesser extent 3186 movement 16570 and the 4-line 14060M
in the crazy world of collecting, several possible factors can contribute to an item's perceived value, of which rarity and defects which you've correctly mentioned are 2 principal ones. a subset of rarity is when an item is discontinued.
herd mentality also plays a huge part. once value start climbing, every man and his pet may start salivating for one, even those who are clueless or lack passion, either for profit or as a status symbol.
i am curious as to the original rolex explorer with painted dial. even though many specimens were produced during its long production history, they command a healthy premium today and aren't easy to source. anyone has any idea as to why?
- did the majority got abused as a tool watch till they got discarded?
- are they being kept for future profit?
