jericho75
Greater Supremacy Member
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PAP appears to be in disarray.
Their initial campaign was to focus on WP which was perceived to be the biggest threat. The campaign started with the PAP conceding the WP held SMCs and GRCs. Fengshan was carved out of East Coast GRC to give East Coast a fighting chance. McPherson was taken out of Marine Parade to preserve a pre-65 rich SMC for future use. Marine Parade was made into a dumping ground for Geylang, Joo Chiat and other hostile polling districts. While it would be nice if Marine Parade could be retained, there would be no real tears if it was lost as it contained a stubborn old man who refused to leave the stage when he was supposed to.
As the campaign got underway, this carefully laid plan started to go awry. It started with the larger that expected attendances at the first WP rally. This quickly snowballed and they began to receive feedback of massive anger and resentment. Using rally size as a proxy, it became likely that WP might manage a swing of 8 to 10%. Based on the polling results of GE 2011, this would mean that WP would win 27 out of 28 seats contested.
To prevent this from happening, the PAP therefore concentrated all fire on the town council issue, hoping that it would create doubt in the mind of the swing voters. This tactic did not appear to have the intended effect. The WP rallies grew in size and there was a strong social media backlash. The assault ended in a PAP rout with the WP "surprise" counnter attack using the Punggol East town council accounts.
While the PAP focused on the WP, they ignored the SDP. From a slow start with a crowd of less than 5,000, CSJ emerged to become the "Nicole Seah" of GE 2015. The crowd at SDP rallies have now surged past the 20,000 mark. After the rallies, supporters queue for as long as 1.5 hours to shake CSJ's hand and buy his books. On social media, CSJ has reached the levels Nicole Seah achieved in 2015. Given the demographic mix of Holland-Bukit Timah, this means that there is a high chance that the SDP will be able to make a GRC breakthrough.
After an unprecedented Sunday rally "break" by the PAP, there is therefore a noticable shift in focus away from WP to SDP. In doing so, the PAP appears to be conceding the 27 seats to WP. Stopping the SDP has now become their top priority. Beyond the loss of the 2/3 majority, the emergence of SDP in Parliament would mean the birth of a potential WP-SDP coalition that can challenge the PAP for control of the government in 2020.
There are now just 2 days of campaigning left. The completely unexpected emergence of SDP under CSJ makes it extremely difficult for the PAP to come up with any well thought out plan. Based on Monday's rallies, their strategy appears to be to use personal attacks and character assassination to try and stop CSJ. It is uncertain if this will be effective. CSJ has emerged from his years of exile with a stillness of heart. His response to the attacks appears to be the Biblical teaching of "turning the other cheek" while gently rebuking the PAP in the errors of their ways. This approach seems be very effective in winning CSJ a great deal of respect from Singaporeans. By attacking him viciously, the PAP will reinforce the widespread perception that the PAP is an aggressive, oppressive "bully".
http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?214857-My-Predictions&p=2287526#post2287526
Their initial campaign was to focus on WP which was perceived to be the biggest threat. The campaign started with the PAP conceding the WP held SMCs and GRCs. Fengshan was carved out of East Coast GRC to give East Coast a fighting chance. McPherson was taken out of Marine Parade to preserve a pre-65 rich SMC for future use. Marine Parade was made into a dumping ground for Geylang, Joo Chiat and other hostile polling districts. While it would be nice if Marine Parade could be retained, there would be no real tears if it was lost as it contained a stubborn old man who refused to leave the stage when he was supposed to.
As the campaign got underway, this carefully laid plan started to go awry. It started with the larger that expected attendances at the first WP rally. This quickly snowballed and they began to receive feedback of massive anger and resentment. Using rally size as a proxy, it became likely that WP might manage a swing of 8 to 10%. Based on the polling results of GE 2011, this would mean that WP would win 27 out of 28 seats contested.
To prevent this from happening, the PAP therefore concentrated all fire on the town council issue, hoping that it would create doubt in the mind of the swing voters. This tactic did not appear to have the intended effect. The WP rallies grew in size and there was a strong social media backlash. The assault ended in a PAP rout with the WP "surprise" counnter attack using the Punggol East town council accounts.
While the PAP focused on the WP, they ignored the SDP. From a slow start with a crowd of less than 5,000, CSJ emerged to become the "Nicole Seah" of GE 2015. The crowd at SDP rallies have now surged past the 20,000 mark. After the rallies, supporters queue for as long as 1.5 hours to shake CSJ's hand and buy his books. On social media, CSJ has reached the levels Nicole Seah achieved in 2015. Given the demographic mix of Holland-Bukit Timah, this means that there is a high chance that the SDP will be able to make a GRC breakthrough.
After an unprecedented Sunday rally "break" by the PAP, there is therefore a noticable shift in focus away from WP to SDP. In doing so, the PAP appears to be conceding the 27 seats to WP. Stopping the SDP has now become their top priority. Beyond the loss of the 2/3 majority, the emergence of SDP in Parliament would mean the birth of a potential WP-SDP coalition that can challenge the PAP for control of the government in 2020.
There are now just 2 days of campaigning left. The completely unexpected emergence of SDP under CSJ makes it extremely difficult for the PAP to come up with any well thought out plan. Based on Monday's rallies, their strategy appears to be to use personal attacks and character assassination to try and stop CSJ. It is uncertain if this will be effective. CSJ has emerged from his years of exile with a stillness of heart. His response to the attacks appears to be the Biblical teaching of "turning the other cheek" while gently rebuking the PAP in the errors of their ways. This approach seems be very effective in winning CSJ a great deal of respect from Singaporeans. By attacking him viciously, the PAP will reinforce the widespread perception that the PAP is an aggressive, oppressive "bully".
http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?214857-My-Predictions&p=2287526#post2287526
So many prominent social political bloggers disappeared from 2011 onwards... Even Mr Brown also went extremely mild now...
