And on youtube, got a few "watch experts" talking about a Rolex bubble coming

It's all up to Rolex.
They may increase RRP by 10% but if they increase the supply to the pre-2015/16 (?) levels, the grey market price, which is way more than 10% above current RRP, will definitely crash.
In fact, before the supply drought era, the grey market's value proposition was not so much about availability but more about offering at a better price than AD.
One constant to the equation throughout pre and post supply drought era though is the mysterious AD/grey relationship:
- When supply is adequate, grey can manage to get supply and sell cheaper than AD.
- When supply is inadequate, grey can still manage to get supply and sell at a premium.
Can't help but wonder what are the kickbacks involved for AD or whether the ADs have their own shadow grey biz to always be on top of things..