USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[elvintay07]

The stocks are cheap base on valuation and stable growth. Price is low because people keep thinking AI will kill their business.

Yes. But I won’t say ppl is wrong. Today you don’t really need to make video from scratch. But I presume professional still need pro software like Adobe

 

[sumako]

@stanlawj huat big time with your silver

 

[elvintay07]

If Nvidia didn’t crash like Burry said, likely Burry will lose his pants

 

[stanlawj]

@stanlawj huat big time with your silver

Went for my Japan holiday. I didn't participate in the recent push to new ATH in silver. Only holding my physical now. Continue to add my position in Gatekeeper Systems Inc. (GSI on TSX Venture).

 

[sumako]

Went for my Japan holiday. I didn't participate in the recent push to new ATH in silver. Only holding my physical now. Continue to add my position in Gatekeeper Systems Inc. (GSI on TSX Venture).

wait for you to come back and talk about silver. AG, EXK, SVM all same pattern. still can go higher from what i see.

those who missed it, dont chase.

 

[crystalnox]

If Nvidia didn’t crash like Burry said, likely Burry will lose his pants

Burry has been wrong on major predictions for a long time already, he's a one trick pony.

 

[stanlawj]

BoJ's Ueda finally signalled for a 25 bp hike to 0.75 % as the base case for December 18–19 BoJ MPM, barring major negative surprises in the next two weeks of data (especially wage surveys, November CPI, and any sharp yen appreciation).
Markets are currently pricing ≈80–85 % probability (OIS) for exactly that outcome.

How this compares to past BOJ signaling before actual hikes​

Date of hike	Pre-meeting Ueda phrasing (closest speech)	Strength vs. Dec 1, 2025 speech
March 2024 (end of NIRP)	“We will continue with accommodative policy for the time being”	Much softer
July 2024 (first 0.25% hike)	“If trend inflation moves as expected, we will adjust degree of accommodation”	General, no meeting named
January 2025 (second hike)	“At some point we will consider further adjustment”	Still vague
December 2025 (upcoming)	“At the December 18–19 MPM we will consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate”	By far the most explicit

https://www.boj.or.jp/en/about/press/koen_speaker/gv_ueda/index.htm

 

[stanlawj]

Finally, me can stop bleeding from bagholding JPY since USDJPY = 143.
The break-out from 149 to 157 due to Takaichi's election win totally caught me by surprise.

JPY strengthening till end of Dec will reduce liquidity and thus affect US Mag7 stocks + crypto.