USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[stanlawj]

Long silver at $78 in my itchy fingers/throwaway CFD account.

 

[sumako]

Long silver at $78 in my itchy fingers/throwaway CFD account.

so fast?

 

[stanlawj]

so fast?

Yup, I'm basing on the fact that the crash was engineered to be artificially too low, since circuit breakers were purposely not activated by CME on the way down.
The last consolidation occurred between $72 - $82 region.

But I rank this as a very difficult play, so I do not intend to use my normal account to bet on this.

 

[limster]

tempted to buy some ETHA

 

[elvintay07]

Long silver at $78 in my itchy fingers/throwaway CFD account.

Is silver traded 24 hours? Saw Moomoo and got so much transaction

 

[stanlawj]

Is silver traded 24 hours? Saw Moomoo and got so much transaction

Monday to Friday except between 5am to 6am (6 to 7am with daylight savings time which is current time)

 

[stanlawj]

May be a good idea to take profits on US defense contractors. Production halts or delays incoming.

 

[limster]

May be a good idea to take profits on US defense contractors. Production halts or delays incoming.

defence contractors have so many "friends" in congress, when was the last time a law unfavourable to defense contractors was actually implemented

 

[stanlawj]

defence contractors have so many "friends" in congress, when was the last time a law unfavourable to defense contractors was actually implemented

Rare earth inventory depletion will freeze their manufacturing. But of course, this is a speculation, but still important to keep an eye on it for weakness to be start pricing in.

 

[stanlawj]

https://globaltechresearch.substack.com/p/co-packaged-optics-cpo-the-next-big-db9

Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) – The Next Big Thing for NVIDIA (2)?​

TFC, a Suzhou-based firm (300394.SZ) specializing in silicon photonics and high-speed modules, has been collaborating with NVIDIA on co-packaged optics (CPO) since at least 2024, positioning it for volume production starting in 2026 amid projected 1.6T market growth to over 20 million units.




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Photonics-related stocks ranked in order of performance today:
LITE +8.16%
CIEN +6.62%
COHR +4.84%
KEYS +3.23%
AAOI +1.26%
POET +1.03%
MRVL -0.34%

I bought MRVL again.

 

[stanlawj]

1. SaaS stocks crash is spreading to private credit providers, specifically BDCs (Business Development Companies).

From AI:
Private credit providers, particularly business development companies (BDCs), have substantial exposure to the software sector, making them vulnerable to this downturn. Software represents the largest sector allocation for BDCs, typically around 20-30% of portfolios, with some specialized funds reaching 90% exposure. A UBS report from January 2026 highlighted that 25-35% of private credit portfolios (using BDCs as a proxy) face elevated AI disruption risk, concentrated in technology (24% of holdings) and business services (30%). This exposure stems from BDCs' preference for lending to SaaS and enterprise software firms due to their high yields and recurring revenue models, often at leveraged multiples of 5-6x monthly recurring revenue.

Following the UBS report and amid the SaaS sell-off, BDC stocks did indeed crash on February 2, 2026. Shares of major players like Blue Owl Capital Corp. (OBDC) fell over 4% to multi-year lows, with similar drops in Sixth Street Specialty Lending (TSLX) and Trinity Capital (TRIN). This contributed to broader sector pressure, with average BDC valuations sinking to 85% of book value from 103% a year prior, alongside concerns over potential dividend cuts of 15-20% due to declining net investment income and rising non-accruals. The ZeroHedge article, published February 2, accurately captured this sequence, attributing the BDC crash to the report's revelations about software exposure amid the sector's collapse. Other outlets, including Bloomberg and Seeking Alpha, corroborated the linkage between AI-driven SaaS weakness and private credit risks.

2. ISM Manufacturing PMI beats forecast strongly with 52 vs 48 forecast.
Industrial/chemical stocks are roaring. Manufacturing reshoring is back in US.
Back in Dec 2025:

Chemicals/process group stocks starting to bottom out:
CC, TROX, DOW, APD, BAK.
3M, DD are stronger.

If you get the point: Things over paper. Hardware over software.

 

[Dividends Warrior]

Alphabet hit a new high. Waymo closed a US$16b investment round.

https://waymo.com/blog/2026/02/waymo-raises-usd16-billion-investment-round

 

[sumako]

Claudbot or Clawdbot?

appl ho seh. mac mini flying off the shelves.

 

[mooseolly]

Claudbot or Clawdbot?

appl ho seh. mac mini flying off the shelves.

That is why investors should not listen to Doomsday news and focus on the actual results instead. 18b to 25b in China when people say Apple lose in AI , no innovation , Huawei 遥遥领先.

 

[elvintay07]

That is why investors should not listen to Doomsday news and focus on the actual results instead. 18b to 25b in China when people say Apple lose in AI , no innovation , Huawei 遥遥领先.

Haha! Huat kuey. These few days saw my portfolio hitting all time high doing nothing. Damn tempted to buy IGV etf when everyone said software is game over. Wonder whether this will be a repeat of the previous tech underperforming. Haha!

 

[stanlawj]

Sold silver at $86 (bought at $78).
Sold MRVL at breakeven due to analyst downgrade today which will immediately cause short-term price correction.

 

[sumako]

Sold silver at $86 (bought at $78).
Sold MRVL at breakeven due to analyst downgrade today which will immediately cause short-term price correction.

mrvl is a laggard

 

[stanlawj]

Those buying big into the great software sale will either become multi-millionares or be broke. I adding a bit here and there in those with strong growing sales and operating cash flows to reduce my risk eg. HUBS and DUOL

This sounds like Alibaba after the monopoly crackdown.

Share price down even though current earnings growing means future earnings are being doubted thus discounted.

The price of SaaS companies will stay down until they can prove their ability to monetise and grow their earnings under a different business model with AI.

DUOL and HUB are both crashing hard today. Well, I did warn about this. Hope your allocation/sizing is small enough that the losses are still small.

 

[stanlawj]

Alphabet hit a new high. Waymo closed a US$16b investment round.

https://waymo.com/blog/2026/02/waymo-raises-usd16-billion-investment-round

MSFT is crashing lower than your last buy point. I think it is going below 400.

 

[stanlawj]

SP500/gold ratio successfully retested the head-n-shoulder neckline and resumes its plunge below it, affirming the change in investment regime.
XLB (materials), XLE (Energy), XLI (industrial) rocketing up.