USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[stanlawj]

[UNG / BOIL] - Natgas (NG1) rejected at $2 level. Looks like a possible support. The bounce reaction is much stronger than at 2.35.

During the 2016 bottom, there were several 12% to 40% bear rallies over 5 months.

 

[stanlawj]

Sell NVDA to latecomers?
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/23/gol...-growth-should-help-drive-outperformance.html

 

[stanlawj]

[UNG / BOIL] - With 2.00 confirmed as 1st strong support on natgas weekly chart, next pullback, eg 50% to 2.35 (= UNG 7.80) may be buyable. Just a thought.

Production side beginning to react a little:
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/sou...ity-in-response-to-weaker-natural-gas-market/I still think prices need to stay low for some time to make them actually cut production, not just verbally threaten to cut production.

Demand side; Europe's chemical industry is shutting down permanently. Natgas demand destruction there will be permanent. Looks like gas demand may not recover to pre-war levels. Less incentive for US LNG export.
DOW CHEMICAL:
https://cen.acs.org/business/finance/Dow-rolls-layoffs-profits-slump/101/i4BASF:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/basf-to-cut-2600-jobs-on-high-costs-in-europe.html

 

[DevilPlate]

Since the Feb. 3 January jobs report showed robust hiring and lower unemployment, financial market pricing has undergone an abrupt shift. Before markets expected the Fed to hike less than official projections and begin cutting rates later this year. After Friday's PCE inflation report, markets were pricing in 88.5% odds that the Fed will hike its key rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% by the late July meeting. That implies one extra hike compared to the Fed's latest projections.

Plus, odds of a 50-basis-point hike on March 22 climbed to 39% shortly after the PCE inflation data. More firm inflation data and a strong jobs report could tilt the Fed to making a half-point move.

https://www.investors.com/news/economy/the-fed-key-inflation-rate-just-heated-up-sp-500/

 

[zzTiny]

I believe natgas is already at the bottom already for the past few days @$2. You should start seeing nat gas companies slashing production. Natgas is a very weird market to me. Natgas companies will keep on producing and slash price. This is different from oil market.

 

[d5dude]

I believe natgas is already at the bottom already for the past few days @$2. You should start seeing nat gas companies slashing production. Natgas is a very weird market to me. Natgas companies will keep on producing and slash price. This is different from oil market.

Bbecause it’s difficult to store nat gas, and about 2/3 of the nat gas production in US is actually a byproduct of oil fracking, it’s literally free for the oil producers, they will just flare it off if they cannot store or dump them off for cheap.

Anyway be aware that nat gas futures is in a deep contango now, so putting your money in all these nat gas etns is going to cost you a lot of money every month due to contract rollover. You can lose money even if spot nat gas moves higher.

 

[stanlawj]

Bbecause it’s difficult to store nat gas, and about 2/3 of the nat gas production in US is actually a byproduct of oil fracking, it’s literally free for the oil producers, they will just flare it off if they cannot store or dump them off for cheap.

Anyway be aware that nat gas futures is in a deep contango now, so putting your money in all these nat gas etns is going to cost you a lot of money every month due to contract rollover. You can lose money even if spot nat gas moves higher.

Good points. Next UNG roll dates are 15th - 20th March. Just avoid that week and it will be good. All the rollover dates for 2023 are published by the manager/sponsor.
https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ung
BOIL rolls over contracts starting 6th business day of the month, for five days.
https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/...olls its contracts,business day of the month.

 

[stanlawj]

CRAMER: NVIDIA!!!!

 

[utraeg]

CRAMER: NVIDIA!!!!

and on 27th he said to buy tesla.. hopefully some with position manage to take some profits

 

[luckyplate]

Buy Tesla ?? .. commit suicide .. easier ...

 

[apple459721]

Wtf futures dumping

2y yield new high
10y catching up..

 

[ekekultra]

Buy Tesla ?? .. commit suicide .. easier ...

isnt cramer supposed to have a good track record of having it wrong.. haha..
Looking at how tesla has made gains.. i think it's good time to take profit and sell some instead of follow his advice to buy

 

[utraeg]

7th March, Powell have a testimony with the us senates. Wonder if he will surprise us again

 

[stanlawj]

Sudden jump in DNN & URNM.
U.UN (on TSX) as well. But volume is rather low.

Something brewing in uranium space. Usually uranium miners correlate positively with NASDAQ.

 

[elvintay07]

Sudden jump in DNN & URNM.
U.UN (on TSX) as well. But volume is rather low.

Something brewing in uranium space. Usually uranium miners correlate positively with NASDAQ.

I thought it is NLR for uranium. Haha

 

[stanlawj]

I thought it is NLR for uranium. Haha

What does NLR means?

 

[elvintay07]

What does NLR means?

VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF

 

[stanlawj]

VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF

NLR is not well liked. The daily trading volume is rather low. No clues can be determined from past peaks or troughs in NLR.

 

[elvintay07]

NLR is not well liked. The daily trading volume is rather low. No clues can be determined from past peaks or troughs in NLR.

Then which one huh.

 

[stanlawj]

Then which one huh.

URNM etf for pure uranium mining exposure.
U.UN is much safer because it holds physical uranium, so no mining risk at all. I think U.UN on TSX is much better for you.

On another note, technical chasers got destroyed by Elon today. All those chasing semicon (AEHR, ACLS).