USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[d5dude]

Turns out the new treasury sec changes his mind on major issues like tariffs every 5 mins, next 4 years is going to be chaotic if this is the new paradigm.

 

[Euqorab]

I think they launched 50x times Liao no problem. Anyway fail then fail lo, relaunch… like I said long term stock. I have a significant sum in it so I might be biased. DYOR



RKLB all in. But I bought some SMCI calls to ride their recovery with a $40 strike

What the max entry prices

 

[d9_lives]

There are Sava cult members still insisting the trial was wrong. So you strategy on profiting from dead cat bounce may still work for a while.

Good luck !

(I am all hand on AVXL)

It didn't work out.
Closed sava with small loss.

 

[Evil_Boss]

today Dell earnings, im betting its not outstanding, so i buy SMCI..gamble big win big.

 

[Euqorab]

today Dell earnings, im betting its not outstanding, so i buy SMCI..gamble big win big.

Post market drop from 141 to 126

 

[rizhal]

It didn't work out.
Closed sava with small loss.

The company is left with a failed Phase 3 result and 140m cash. No pipeline. CEO said they will dig through the failed data and find any possible value.

I avoid this stock.

 

[Euqorab]

I think they launched 50x times Liao no problem. Anyway fail then fail lo, relaunch… like I said long term stock. I have a significant sum in it so I might be biased. DYOR



RKLB all in. But I bought some SMCI calls to ride their recovery with a $40 strike

What the max entry prices

Morning boss, I buyed at average 25.76 then see it rised to 26.3 tempted to sell then see it dropped back to below my buy price so I hum-ed, so I put my exit strategy as 26.62 and went back to sleep

 

[d9_lives]

.

The company is left with a failed Phase 3 result and 140m cash. No pipeline. CEO said they will dig through the failed data and find any possible value.

I avoid this stock.

What's with avxl?

 

[rizhal]

.
What's with avxl?

AVXL is in the front running race now for AD with daily oral medication and good safety profile. Last night announcement, they submitted commercial application in Europe, expect one year for application answer.

Medium risk, AVXL is a tiny Biotech, need partnership with bigger BP to distribute in Europe. (Why not go US market first? I believe big BP are pulling tricks, FDA is corrupted)

For more info, please review this analysis blog,

https://www.sotcanalytics.com/ctad-2024

(Biotech investment is high risk, dyodd, good luck)

 

[stanlawj]

Turns out the new treasury sec changes his mind on major issues like tariffs every 5 mins, next 4 years is going to be chaotic if this is the new paradigm.

Pls read page 9 of the document that the quote was based on.

" Another differentiated view that we have is that Trump will pursue a weak dollar policy rather than
implementing tariffs. Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar--hardly a good starting point
for a US industrial renaissance. Weakening the dollar early in his second administration would make U.S
manufacturing competitive. A weak dollar and plentiful, cheap energy could power a boom. The current
Wall Street consensus is for a strong dollar based on the tariffs. We strongly disagree. A strong dollar
should emerge by the end of his term if the US reshoring effort is successful."

I have no idea why the "Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar" sentence appear in that para. But the core idea is USD FX devaluation. That is inflationary at first, but will revert to be deflationary if reshoring is successful thus causing USD to strengthen again. However, reshoring is a multi-year process, and that strong USD won't take place until then.

Do you also notice that DXY has stopped going up since the nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary?

 

[d5dude]

Pls read page 9 of the document that the quote was based on.

" Another differentiated view that we have is that Trump will pursue a weak dollar policy rather than
implementing tariffs. Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar--hardly a good starting point
for a US industrial renaissance. Weakening the dollar early in his second administration would make U.S
manufacturing competitive. A weak dollar and plentiful, cheap energy could power a boom. The current
Wall Street consensus is for a strong dollar based on the tariffs. We strongly disagree. A strong dollar
should emerge by the end of his term if the US reshoring effort is successful."

I have no idea why the "Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar" sentence appear in that para. But the core idea is USD FX devaluation. That is inflationary at first, but will revert to be deflationary if reshoring is successful thus causing USD to strengthen again. However, reshoring is a multi-year process, and that strong USD won't take place until then.

That was in Jan, as pointed out by Dan Primack, Scott Bessent has since changed his view on tariffs. He doesnt think tariffs will cause inflation anymore.

Bessent: "Tariffs can’t be inflationary because if the price of one thing goes up, unless you give people more money, then they have less money to spend on the other thing, so there is no inflation.”

Do you also notice that DXY has stopped going up since the nomination of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary?

It could just be consolidating...

 

[Evil_Boss]

Morning boss, I buyed at average 25.76 then see it rised to 26.3 tempted to sell then see it dropped back to below my buy price so I hum-ed, so I put my exit strategy as 26.62 and went back to sleep

You sell at 26.62, you will kick yourself in 6 months. Calls already +50% bought 1 month ago. Just hold it

 

[DevilPlate]

That was in Jan, as pointed out by Dan Primack, Scott Bessent has since changed his view on tariffs. He doesnt think tariffs will cause inflation anymore.

Bessent: "Tariffs can’t be inflationary because if the price of one thing goes up, unless you give people more money, then they have less money to spend on the other thing, so there is no inflation.”



It could just be consolidating...

Which double confirm that it will be targeted tariffs instead of blanket tariffs.
*perhaps mainly on non-essential items

 

[d5dude]

Which double confirm that it will be targeted tariffs instead of blanket tariffs.
*perhaps mainly on non-essential items

How did you come to this conclusion?

Bessent could put tariffs on most Chinese imports, that'd raise prices for these goods, the assumption is that consumers will continue to buy these higher priced goods, thereby leaving them with less money for everything else, depressing prices elsewhere.

I think this is faulty logic, no way consumers will continue to buy the same stuff at higher prices at the same volume, many would definitely substitute these goods with alternatives or just cut spending. Its not entirely clear how 60% tariffs will affect prices but I'm pretty sure the CPI wont stay flat.

 

[DevilPlate]

How did you come to this conclusion?

Bessent could put tariffs on most Chinese imports, that'd raise prices for these goods, the assumption is that consumers will continue to buy these higher priced goods, thereby leaving them with less money for everything else, depressing prices elsewhere.

I think this is faulty logic, no way consumers will continue to buy the same stuff at higher prices at the same volume, many would definitely substitute these goods with alternatives or just cut spending. Its not entirely clear how 60% tariffs will affect prices but I'm pretty sure the CPI wont stay flat.

Based on what he said la……if all essential goods up, there will be no cheaper alternatives and inflation will go up

Else no point quoting him altogether

Which also means QOL will go down for average Americans as they have to cut down on discretionary spending.

 

[d5dude]

Based on what he said la……if all essential goods up, there will be no cheaper alternatives and inflation will go up

Else no point quoting him altogether

Which also means QOL will go down for average Americans as they have to cut down on discretionary spending.

2/3 of the goods in Walmart are made in the USA, US is a lot less dependent on China for essentials than many people think. Most China imports are actually discretionary spending, like the useless crap you see on Shark Tank.

 

[DevilPlate]

2/3 of the goods in Walmart are made in the USA, US is a lot less dependent on China for essentials than many people think. Most China imports are actually discretionary spending, like the useless crap you see on Shark Tank.

So tariffs =! Higher inflation

Anyway previous Trump term inflation also never spike up

 

[Euqorab]

You sell at 26.62, you will kick yourself in 6 months. Calls already +50% bought 1 month ago. Just hold it

Botak boss, I will buy back tonight at 25

26.62 was heng heng, I locked $100 profit to jiak macdonald at liat towers during lunch

Is more than what I earn in a day I am happy

 

[Euqorab]

2/3 of the goods in Walmart are made in the USA, US is a lot less dependent on China for essentials than many people think. Most China imports are actually discretionary spending, like the useless crap you see on Shark Tank.

So tariffs =! Higher inflation

Anyway previous Trump term inflation also never spike up

Thanks for valuable knowledge

Also on “wish”

So basically us is self reliance and china is also self reliance but if they want growth they look out?

 

[d5dude]

So tariffs =! Higher inflation

Anyway previous Trump term inflation also never spike up

They didnt put on 60% tariffs in 2018, it was only 25%.