USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[peachmouse]

CPI is faulty due to hedonic adjustments and doesn't correctly reflect the upwards pressure due to monetary inflation. CPF Retirement Sum keep going up is proof that SGD$ is being inflated away.
Grok's calculation: 5.86% per year since 1990, or 4.58% since 2003.

Not true.
1) BRS (Basic Retirement Sum) is based a person's expenditure from a lower-middle retiree household in household expenditure survey (conducted once every 5 years). See https://ask.gov.sg/cpf/questions/cm0f52kyh00vnpz7a47e1jo7d

2) CPF Retirement Sum is based on expenditure; it is not a measure of inflation.

To keep things simple, Expenditure = Price x Quantity. Your expenditure goes up when price increase or when you buy more stuff.

When one gets richer, one tends to upgrade lifestype or buy more stuff. E.g. When I was young, Mcdonalds is a once-in-a-while luxury and my grandparents never travel overseas. Nowadays, kids go Mcdonalds every week and Singaporean seniors may travel overseas at least once a year.
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To add, Gold is not a good indicator of inflation. See here

To give counter-example, gold prices now are much higher than last year's. But China's facing 0% CPI growth. Singapore's CPI shows 0.9% y-o-y growth in Mar 2025.

 

[stanlawj]

Commentary about the punitive port fees and ship fees on Chinese ships & owners:

It won't kick in immediately, but this is a threat nonetheless. How to negotiate about tariffs if you include this?

 

[DevilPlate]

Commentary about the punitive port fees and ship fees on Chinese ships & owners:

It won't kick in immediately, but this is a threat nonetheless. How to negotiate about tariffs if you include this?

I believe it will take years and maybe even drag on after Trump’s term to settle trade war with China.

Not sure why the stock market is so optimistic for past week. Its like completely rule out Recession probability.

 

[davonir]

Post at wrong time.
You need to wait for SP500 and QQQ to crash 70%, DXY at 60, gold at $5000/oz AND Singapore in full blown recession with unemployment exceeding 5% (it was 4.8% during SARS virus).

Majority of readers in this forum are diehard SP500 buy-n-hold and BTFDippers with their salary & bonus.

Until then, every low in SP500 and QQQ is BTFD moment of their lifetime with their monthly salary/annual bonus. Ditto with the rest of the world. Wait till their salary get cut off first, then they'll see the light.

Well I would say the majority of people not just in Singapore or EDMW. It's a classic and age-old market psychology that can be explained as thus:

Wall of Worry: During bull markets, stocks often rise despite persistent negative news or uncertainty. Investors are cautious and skeptical, constantly worrying about potential risks, but the market continues to climb.

Slope of Hope / River of Hope: In contrast, during bear markets, prices decline even as investors cling to optimism that the market will recover soon. This period is characterized by brief rallies or "hopeful" bounces that ultimately fail, leading to further declines. The phrase "bear markets slide down a slope of hope" captures this dynamic, highlighting how investors' lingering optimism is gradually eroded as the market continues to fall.

In a bear market, investors always looks for news that validates their "hope" that this market will turn bullish. Hope that the Fed will lower interest rates, hope that Trump will conclude a deal with China, etc.

Another good point that the video above raised is about timeframe. When we talk about being bullish or bearish, what timeframe are we talking about? For example, I am bearish for the next few months or years. However I am slighly bullish during this short-term bounce, which was why I entered longs during this counter-trend move, although I believe that prices will still tank eventually, once they reach my sell levels.

Another example, over a period of 5 year to 10 years, the market might still end up being bullish, even if prices drops to 40-50% of the current level during this bearish market cycle. So for BTFD investors that looks at the trend in the 10-20 year timeframe, things remain bullish.

 

[stanlawj]

2) CPF Retirement Sum is based on expenditure; it is not a measure of inflation.

To add, Gold is not a good indicator of inflation. See here

To give counter-example, gold prices now are much higher than last year's. But China's facing 0% CPI growth. Singapore's CPI shows 0.9% y-o-y growth in Mar 2025.

CPF FRS is the simplest true measure of SGD$ inflation. What the SG Govt impose on your savings for retirement, is what they expect costs will rise. SG Govt is incentivised to keep this statistic on the upper range as it taxes the citizens.
Whereas the SG Govt is incentivised to keep CPI always on the lower range of estimation to legitimise themselves for election purposes.

And the economists and financiers who proclaim gold is not an indicator of inflation, have been paid to serve their masters: the wealthy who own and control the assets.

Let me ask you, in your first year of work, you are paid 4 gold ounces per month.
10 years later, you rise up the company ranks to become manager. How much should you be paid per month now?
A. 4 gold oz
B. <4 gold oz
C. >4 gold oz

Employer and shareholders benefits from option B (while shareholders want their company shares to be inflation hedge), so the economics theory in university all teach theory to justify option B. Hence that is why, gold price is officially NOT a good indicator of inflation.

 

[DevilPlate]

CPF FRS is the simplest true measure of SGD$ inflation. What the SG Govt impose on your savings for retirement, is what they expect costs will rise. SG Govt is incentivised to keep this statistic on the upper range as it taxes the citizens.
Whereas the SG Govt is incentivised to keep CPI always on the lower range of estimation to legitimise themselves for election purposes.

And the economists and financiers who proclaim gold is not an indicator of inflation, have been paid to serve their masters: the wealthy who own and control the assets.

Let me ask you, in your first year of work, you are paid 4 gold ounces per month.
10 years later, you rise up the company ranks to become manager. How much should you be paid per month now?
A. 4 gold oz
B. <4 gold oz
C. >4 gold oz

Employer and shareholders benefits from option B, so the economics theory in university all teach theory to justify option B. Hence that is why, gold price is officially NOT a good indicator of inflation.

Well many here don’t believe in Gold one.
They only believe in stocks and bonds.

Gold and BTC are pure speculation to them lol.
Maybe 20years later, grandkids will ask how many BTC u have instead

 

[peachmouse]

CPF FRS is the simplest true measure of SGD$ inflation.

As I noted, CPF FRS is based on expenditure. Expenditure is based on quantity/quality * price.

Inflation refers to increases in prices. Hence, CPF FRS is not a true measure of inflation. Anyway,if you don't catch it, then so be it.

Let me ask you, in your first year of work, you are paid 4 gold ounces per month.
10 years later, you rise up the company ranks to become manager. How much should you be paid per month now?
A. 4 gold oz
B. <4 gold oz
C. >4 gold oz

I will choose C i.e. as much as possible. Anyway, I don't understand the reasoning behind your question.

Lastly, gold. Monevator noted that gold crashed 78% from 1980 to 1999. Good luck to you, if you received your wages in gold in 1980.

On gold as inflation hedge, well see another Monevator article here. Of note, its chart shows that in 1975, inflation was 20+% and gold prices went down 20+% in GBP.

I leave the final word to Verdad who view that gold can be an important tool in one's portfolio:
We believe gold can be an important tool for investors. It can help them generate returns when they are needed most, in recessions and inflationary periods, and it is uncorrelated with equities. However, gold is also volatile and has experienced massive drawdowns historically.

 

[stanlawj]

I will choose C i.e. as much as possible. Anyway, I don't understand the reasoning behind your question.

Lastly, gold. Monevator noted that gold crashed 78% from 1980 to 1999. Good luck to you, if you received your wages in gold in 1980.

This is going into the topic of fairness: Capital owners receive ROI that is inflation hedged. Wage owners do not. Over time, capital owners obtain a greater share of fruits of productivity growth than wage owners.
This is wage repression.

That's why we are all here discussing about stocks!

 

[stanlawj]

Lots of great stock picks.
Note: some have moved up alot since Trump pivot and it's time to stand aside and wait.

GEODF (36 min)
CXDO (40 min)
NVDA (44 min, need to wait)



Like MDWD, GEODF is another take-out candidate.
(Disclosure: I have no position).

Beneficiaries of natural-gas power generation boom from AI:
GEV
AGX

 

[apple459721]

alibaba, jd when?

 

[apple459721]

incoming supply chain shocks?

 

[apple459721]

 

[d9lives]

.

Look...i am not watching/reading all that. Just tell us which stock to buy during this supply disruption.

 

[stanlawj]

It's official. Gabriel Yap has transformed from REITS investor to a BTFD retail investor just like all of us.

 

[yslvlys]

It's official. Gabriel Yap has transformed from REITS investor to a BTFD retail investor just like all of us.

His video has improved. There are now timestamp signposts. Think his recommendation is to buy Apple, Hermes, LVMH and NVDA when they drop.

 

[stanlawj]

.
Look...i am not watching/reading all that. Just tell us which stock to buy during this supply disruption.

This week is down. Already up for several days in a row last week. I expect market to open up to lure in FOMO buyers and then start selling off lunchtime onwards to trap the latecomers.

 

[DevilPlate]

It's official. Gabriel Yap has transformed from REITS investor to a BTFD retail investor just like all of us.

officially marked Sreits bottom?

 

[stanlawj]

officially marked Sreits bottom?

Go listen... he sold before the SREITS crash. Impeccable timing.

 

[DevilPlate]

Go listen... he sold before the SREITS crash. Impeccable timing.

Vy painful to watch his vid

U mean he sold ALL Sreits?

Best timing was 2022 to sell all Sreits

 

[stanlawj]

Vy painful to watch his vid

U mean he sold ALL Sreits?

I don't think so. Need to be his member to find out.