USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[davonir]

You're going to get your patience tested... .

This equity market is definitely running on sentiment and hopium based on Trump's Announcements. Fortunately, my bond futures position is twice as large as my equity futures one. So the drawdown in my equity shorts is outsized by the profits from the bond shorts.

Anyway, what the bond market and the latest 30-year Treasury auction (that ended a moment ago) is showing is that there is a lack of demand in Treasuries. This combined with the ongoing capital flight, means that a push into 6% yield is likely later this year. With that in mind, it's worth thinking how this will affect growth stocks (ie: tech stocks).

Once yield starts its trending move upwards (and bonds prices fall off), equity markets will have no choice but to follow it down. The bond market is the boss. It hardly reacted much to all the Trump announcements.

 

[davonir]

Just an aside, if anyone is looking to long equities, have a look at the BRIC equity market, excluding Russia of course. There are sources of value to be found here.

 

[elvintay07]

Just an aside, if anyone is looking to long equities, have a look at the BRIC equity market, excluding Russia of course. There are sources of value to be found here.

Thanks for the info. I will try to study that. Lately my bear friends have been harping and all celebrating for the China exchange citing policies, QE and then of course a lot of high tech stuff machiam missiles, humanoid robots, EV superior etc. machiam if World War III is to breakout tomorrow, then China will be like the new leader of the world and us have to learn Chinese as first language and machiam every Aug sing the China national anthem, this prompts me to have another look at market history.

1. When S&P500 crash in 2008, the China A50 is not spared
2. Then when Covid hit in 2020, 2021, China A50 also hong gan and bear all the way.

I observed that whenever US is not doing well, the world is doing badly. I wonder whether my bear friends will be right for the first time in their life. US extinct and China will be the new leader. Haha’!

 

[mooseolly]

Thanks for the info. I will try to study that. Lately my bear friends have been harping and all celebrating for the China exchange citing policies, QE and then of course a lot of high tech stuff machiam missiles, humanoid robots, EV superior etc. machiam if World War III is to breakout tomorrow, then China will be like the new leader of the world and us have to learn Chinese as first language and machiam every Aug sing the China national anthem, this prompts me to have another look at market history.

1. When S&P500 crash in 2008, the China A50 is not spared
2. Then when Covid hit in 2020, 2021, China A50 also hong gan and bear all the way.

I observed that whenever US is not doing well, the world is doing badly. I wonder whether my bear friends will be right for the first time in their life. US extinct and China will be the new leader. Haha’!

Sometimes I wonder why the Shanghai index ATH is 5.8k in 2007 and 3.3k now (18 years later) & Hang Seng looks abit better ATH at 33k in 2018 and 22k now (7 years later) but people keep saying long term is good. Short term ok lah can make money (i make some cai png money trading BABA), but long term is . I rather put my money where there is a good consistent track record for decades. I mean like how many 7 years or 18 years can one wait?

 

[DevilPlate]

Thanks for the info. I will try to study that. Lately my bear friends have been harping and all celebrating for the China exchange citing policies, QE and then of course a lot of high tech stuff machiam missiles, humanoid robots, EV superior etc. machiam if World War III is to breakout tomorrow, then China will be like the new leader of the world and us have to learn Chinese as first language and machiam every Aug sing the China national anthem, this prompts me to have another look at market history.

1. When S&P500 crash in 2008, the China A50 is not spared
2. Then when Covid hit in 2020, 2021, China A50 also hong gan and bear all the way.

I observed that whenever US is not doing well, the world is doing badly. I wonder whether my bear friends will be right for the first time in their life. US extinct and China will be the new leader. Haha’!

golden era for Gold and BTC imo

 

[DevilPlate]

Sometimes I wonder why the Shanghai index ATH is 5.8k in 2007 and 3.3k now (18 years later) & Hang Seng looks abit better ATH at 33k in 2018 and 22k now (7 years later) but people keep saying long term is good. Short term ok lah can make money (i make some cai png money trading BABA), but long term is . I rather put my money where there is a good consistent track record for decades. I mean like how many 7 years or 18 years can one wait?

I think most bears believe in Ray Dalio theory

 

[stanlawj]

My fastest cum ever lol.
Bought and sold Meli within 2min, profit 5.9k lol.
Humji hit and run now

This looks like a bullish gap up play... but the MELI ended the day red after the gap (gap and crap)... so that's very quick of you to sell the price going up before it went down!

 

[limster]

golden era for Gold and BTC imo

I got a nice surprise when my small ETHA position suddenly became worth a lot more. I'm planning to take profit and exit at $20?

 

[elvintay07]

I think most bears believe in Ray Dalio theory

To be honest, I always wants to believe that. But one group for last 5,000+ years keep screwing themselves and have no consistent track records but another one over 200+ have proven themselves over and over again. Just like we keep complaining the whites policy no good. But are we ready to accept a new group with majority unproven ppl inside? Of course we can argue that there is possibility that life maybe better but what are the chances of failure?

I have stayed in China for about 6 years. Still very difficult to convince me that their market will one day be like US market. But yes, I am amazed by their technology

 

[elvintay07]

Sometimes I wonder why the Shanghai index ATH is 5.8k in 2007 and 3.3k now (18 years later) & Hang Seng looks abit better ATH at 33k in 2018 and 22k now (7 years later) but people keep saying long term is good. Short term ok lah can make money (i make some cai png money trading BABA), but long term is . I rather put my money where there is a good consistent track record for decades. I mean like how many 7 years or 18 years can one wait?

I was rather heavy in China prior to the crash. But my wife said exactly what you said here. She said the hype about China starts even earlier, perhaps around 2000s but where has the market gone after 20-25 years? That prompts me to cut some my holdings and avoid the huge loss. Of course the other big hype is the China listed S chips which wipe out many old investors

My wife only buy 2 etf all the way. 1 is the all world etf and the other is like QQQ. lol! So far already trash all my bear friends. lol

 

[Dinoboyboy]

My only common stocks are goog and hnst. May start putting my excess cash in strf for liquidity, bullish in btc in the months to come.

 

[d9lives]

This looks like a bullish gap up play... but the MELI ended the day red after the gap (gap and crap)... so that's very quick of you to sell the price going up before it went down!

I bought puts bro.
No idea what is gap up, just know tea leaves and vibes.

 

[stanlawj]

TSLA breaking out of a nice 2.5months bottom with higher lows.
Robotaxi/Cybercab is the catalyst.

 

[elvintay07]

TSLA breaking out of a nice 2.5months bottom with higher lows.
Robotaxi is the catalyst.

Previously already said Tesla is a stock where everyone dump then it cheong. I still waiting for my sifu Leong’s $30. Haven’t even reach $130, don’t even say $30. Not sure whether need to wait for next life

 

[AndroidComa]

Previously already said Tesla is a stock where everyone dump then it cheong. I still waiting for my sifu Leong’s $30. Haven’t even reach $130, don’t even say $30. Not sure whether need to wait for next life

Can be that if spilt 10:1 lo

 

[elvintay07]

Strangely one moment Loo said cannot buy, next moment he fired big bullets. Not sure what he talking lei. Flipped prata sibei fast

 

[stanlawj]

Sold my COMEX silver futures position for $1k profit over 3 days, due to weak signs... I prefer not to lose money over weekend uncertainty, can always buy back next Monday.
Back to 100% cash. Was disappointing week for me, price keep failing here and there.

Silver breakout, retest and rebound at $32.50 successfully. I'm back in silver via COMEX silver futures this time. Missed the boat on silver miners (SILJ) and gold miners (GDX, GDXJ) breakout two days ago. They held their breakout through FOMC which is a sign that speculative hot money has entered gold mining sector in a big way.

Other supporting data: XAUJPY also breaking out to new ATH.

 

[d9lives]

NU earnings next tue.
I am on a winning streak again so I have a good feeling on this.
Buckle up, we're going to the moon!

 

[spoon69]

Bought some Google, ppl dump, i buy

 

[Dinoboyboy]

NU earnings next tue.
I am on a winning streak again so I have a good feeling on this.
Buckle up, we're going to the moon!

i lost my streak last night through rklb. Next tuesday i am betting on lunr.