USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[d9lives]

I not so ambitious to try to beat hedge fund, continue to outperform S&P500 good enough for me

Good stuff.
What're you riding on right now? Still nike, uaa, and nvo?

 

[d9lives]

Any tom and Jerry can outperform S&P500 lol. My new moomoo already 120% profit in 11 months

Welcome back, buffett.

 

[limster]

Good stuff.
What're you riding on right now? Still nike, uaa, and nvo?

yes, still holding on.
also smaller positions of LULU, INTC, ETHA.

my returns I think are being pumped by my Euro-financials where I get both capital gain and great dividend.

 

[d9lives]

I am still recovering from the hangover.
Underestimated Trump's stupidity and got caught with my pants down.
He messed up my smooth trajectory.

 

[DevilPlate]

SPY/QQQ still slightly down YTD

BTC 9%+ YTD

10y yield 4.4%+

USD/SGD was ~1.37 beginning of the year
today ~1.3 (-5%)

 

[stanlawj]

AK's take on USD

I'm ready to pick the faults.

1. Adam Khoo only used the current bull cycle from the past 15 years for DXY (US dollar index). He didn't go farther back till end of WW2 when USD first replaced GBP as the reserve currency for the world (since US won WW2). GRC and value of DXY are two distinctly different things. USD can still be the global reserve currency yet the DXY falling!

2. It looks like the DXY is forming a multi-year topping pattern for the final 15-year bull cycle.
IMO, this bull cycle is caused by US big tech leadership (from cloud to social media to AI for now), with massive US trade deficit providing foreign-owned USD investment demand. Everyone in the world wants to buy these leaders. If everyone decide to divest from these stocks and convert their USD back to other currencies, then USD demand will drop and DXY fall in value.
Once China masters AI and open-source it, the AI leadership will be gone. It's already started with software, and will slowly extend to hardware once China masters EUV lithography.
Secondly, if the US trade deficit decreases, then there is less USD owned by foreigners that is available to invest in the US AI leaders.

Conclusion: Adam Khoo only picked the story to fit the near-term bull case for USD value relative to other currencies.

While it is true that DXY looks to stay strong in the immediate term, it is a deceptive multi-year topping pattern. I have given the 2 conditions in which this topping pattern will end and change to a downtrend.

Current positioning for USD:

 

[aurvandil]

SPY/QQQ still slightly down YTD

BTC 9%+ YTD

10y yield 4.4%+

USD/SGD was ~1.37 beginning of the year
today ~1.3 (-5%)

If you didn't read the news for the past 3 months and just saw this summary, you would think nothing much happened.

 

[stanlawj]

If you didn't read the news for the past 3 months and just saw this summary, you would think nothing much happened.

If you are civil servant (iron rice bowl) or student (supported by FAMA), basically life goes on as usual.
Only SARS and Covid is the real challenge because it involves quarantine.

 

[stanlawj]

yes, still holding on.
also smaller positions of LULU, INTC, ETHA.

my returns I think are being pumped by my Euro-financials where I get both capital gain and great dividend.

Can INTC survive TSMC Arizona?
IMO, INTC is uninvestible until 2027 earliest (coincide with the launch of the Intel 14A, the process node that can finally match TSMC). Intel will continue to burn a big hole in their corporate balance sheet for the next few years.

https://wccftech.com/tsmc-us-operat...-as-all-fabs-are-reported-to-be-fully-booked/

TSMC’s US Operations Are Booming Right Now As All Fabs Are Reported To Be Fully Booked; Intel Foundry On The Sidelines For Now​

 

[DevilPlate]

If you didn't read the news for the past 3 months and just saw this summary, you would think nothing much happened.

It provide extremely value for money entertainment...ngl

 

[mooseolly]

I'm ready to pick the faults.

1. Adam Khoo only used the current bull cycle from the past 15 years for DXY (US dollar index). He didn't go farther back till end of WW2 when USD first replaced GBP as the reserve currency for the world (since US won WW2). GRC and value of DXY are two distinctly different things. USD can still be the global reserve currency yet the DXY falling!

2. It looks like the DXY is forming a multi-year topping pattern for the final 15-year bull cycle.
IMO, this bull cycle is caused by US big tech leadership (from cloud to social media to AI for now), with massive US trade deficit providing foreign-owned USD investment demand. Everyone in the world wants to buy these leaders. If everyone decide to divest from these stocks and convert their USD back to other currencies, then USD demand will drop and DXY fall in value.
Once China masters AI and open-source it, the AI leadership will be gone. It's already started with software, and will slowly extend to hardware once China masters EUV lithography.
Secondly, if the US trade deficit decreases, then there is less USD owned by foreigners that is available to invest in the US AI leaders.

Conclusion: Adam Khoo only picked the story to fit the near-term bull case for USD value relative to other currencies.

While it is true that DXY looks to stay strong in the immediate term, it is a deceptive multi-year topping pattern. I have given the 2 conditions in which this topping pattern will end and change to a downtrend.

"Once China masters AI and open-source it, the AI leadership will be gone. It's already started with software, and will slowly extend to hardware once China masters EUV lithography."

This one need how many years?

 

[DevilPlate]

"Once China masters AI and open-source it, the AI leadership will be gone. It's already started with software, and will slowly extend to hardware once China masters EUV lithography."

This one need how many years?

I would look at other metrics like earning yield.

SPY current earning yield at ~3.7%+ vs 10y treasuries of 4.4%

Maybe thats why Buffet (as a value investor) got nothing to buy in today’s market valuation

 

[mooseolly]

I would look at other metrics like earning yield.

SPY current earning yield at ~3.7%+ vs 10y treasuries of 4.4%

Maybe thats why Buffet (as a value investor) got nothing to buy in today’s market valuation

Ya at least can look at numbers rather than basing on "what if" to make investment decision.

 

[wongdawson]

Welcome back, buffett.

U sound like sarcasm I can show u my portfolio my Pltr 4x, Mstr 2x Sofi 2x, Tesla 2x, Nvda 2x , Soun 3x and the rest ard 20-30% return my biggest lost is AMD which now starting to break even as much I respect WB but he is been too old school miss the AI and crypto bull run maybe he already old and too contended to take any risk

 

[d9lives]

U sound like sarcasm I can show u my portfolio my Pltr 4x, Mstr 2x Sofi 2x, Tesla 2x, Nvda 2x , Soun 3x and the rest ard 20-30% return my biggest lost is AMD which now starting to break even as much I respect WB but he is been too old school miss the AI and crypto bull run maybe he already old and too contended to take any risk

Hoh?
I wouldn't dare. It's a compliment. 120% is an impressive return! I've never seen anything like that my life.

Yes, share it here and let us know your next high conviction play.

Great PLTR play btw. I too, held 12,000 shares @11.xx.

 

[pepsitwist]

I not so ambitious to try to beat hedge fund, continue to outperform S&P500 good enough for me

What app is this?

 

[d9lives]

"Once China masters AI and open-source it, the AI leadership will be gone. It's already started with software, and will slowly extend to hardware once China masters EUV lithography."

This one need how many years?

Let's discard all those MSM and hear it from the experts. See how fast they're catching up?
Some forumers here still think they are 30y behind

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...jensen-huang-says-china-not-behind-in-ai.html

https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/05...g-great-progress-warns-its-a-bad-time-to-inte

True story.
Less than 4 years ago, our VP said China tech is 15y behind us! 2 months ago, the same VP said Company X (China) is one of our biggest threats!

 

[mooseolly]

Let's discard all those MSM and hear it from the experts. See how fast they're catching up?
Some forumers here still think they are 30y behind

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...jensen-huang-says-china-not-behind-in-ai.html

https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/05...g-great-progress-warns-its-a-bad-time-to-inte

You do know the EUV machine is a combination of the ingenuity of different countries right? From the hardware to software. Not say I look down on China but different country people got different ingenuity in certain things. It is not realistic to expect a single country to complete the entire AI chain alone by themselves.

The development of the EUV machine is a testament to international collaboration, with critical components and expertise coming from various countries. Similarly, the complexity and breadth of the AI chain make it highly unlikely for a single nation to achieve complete self-sufficiency across all its aspects. Different countries possess unique strengths and areas of innovation.

for example:

MSM from time to time will fearmonger , for instance saying China military power is surpassing or already surpassed US in order to get more military budget. This is common knowledge.

 

[d9lives]

You do know the EUV machine is a combination of the ingenuity of different countries right? From the hardware to software. Not say I look down on China but different country people got different ingenuity in certain things. It is not realistic to expect a single country to complete the entire AI chain alone by themselves.

for example:

I don't know, bro.
I am just as ignorant as Musk when he pooh-poohed BYD years ago.

Please enlighten me.
How many more years?

 

[mooseolly]

I don't know, bro.
I am just as ignorant as Musk when he pooh-poohed BYD years ago.

Please enlighten me.

China are good innovators but not good inventors.
Before there is Tesla, there is no BYD full EVs. Before there is Openai, there is no deepseek.
I mention before in other threads that US is good from 0 to 1 while China is good from 1- 100. If you understand what I mean.