USA Stocks discussion - Part 3

[limster]

For illustration. 100% equity compared to 60%stock/40%bond mix after all the crashes.

As Louis-Vincent Gave has pointed out, US likes to throw their bond market under the bus in order to pump up stocks, so no wonder 60% US equity/40% US bonds does worse than 100% equity. If it was 40% non-US bonds the result may be different.

 

[limster]

Let say u inherit or strike lottery 2M today.
How u invest?

why you ask him how he invest? he prefers to talk about his bear friends, his bull friends, his colleagues, his relatives, his wife, his master.....

 

[elvintay07]

Let say u inherit or strike lottery 2M today.
How u invest?

if $2m then want to be safe will be 12 trache into world index. This strategy likely will benefit your next few gen

if want to be millionaire or billionaire then showhand in crypto. This is make or break. Within years can be multi millionaire or back to become dog.

 

[mooseolly]

As Louis-Vincent Gave has pointed out, US likes to throw their bond market under the bus in order to pump up stocks, so no wonder 60% US equity/40% US bonds does worse than 100% equity. If it was 40% non-US bonds the result may be different.

US stocks are overwhelmingly the best-performing major asset class over the very long term, significantly outperforming non-US bonds and nearly all other asset classes.

Stocks are for growth and consistently deliver the highest returns over multi-decade periods. Bonds are primarily for stability and capital preservation.

 

[DevilPlate]

if $2m then want to be safe will be 12 trache into world index. This strategy likely will benefit your next few gen

if want to be millionaire or billionaire then showhand in crypto. This is make or break. Within years can be multi millionaire or back to become dog.

I shd rephrase it.

Let say u 55yo have 2M cash today + paid up HDB + CPF FRS
Insecure job anytime can kena retrench.

 

[DevilPlate]

US stocks are overwhelmingly the best-performing major asset class over the very long term, significantly outperforming non-US bonds and nearly all other asset classes.

Stocks are for growth and consistently deliver the highest returns over multi-decade periods. Bonds are primarily for stability and capital preservation.

Key word is very long term like 50years?

 

[elvintay07]

why you ask him how he invest? he prefers to talk about his bear friends, his bull friends, his colleagues, his relatives, his wife, his master.....

小弟, me give you many examples on how ppl do.

 

[mooseolly]

Key word is very long term like 50years?

We are in a secular bull market, no need wait 50 years. Just ride it until stagnation or secular bear comes. Don’t fight the trend.

 

[DevilPlate]

We are in a secular bull market, no need wait 50 years. Just ride it until stagnation or secular bear comes. Don’t fight the trend.

Nobody knows whether we are in secular bear or bull.
Hindsight 20/20

Maybe next yr Global sovereign debt chibaboom

 

[elvintay07]

I shd rephrase it.

Let say u 55yo have 2M cash today + paid up HDB + CPF FRS
Insecure job anytime can kena retrench.

I already said world index (slow and steady like Buffett and Munger). But if you want get rich scheme then can go aggressive. Those ball-less approach like put simi fixed D or 3% bond no need to ask me. I no recommend bond since cpf is world largest bond.

But talk is easy. Most ppl who won $2m toto usually go ktv, hang flower joint and do all the nonsense. Don’t even talk about investing

 

[elvintay07]

We are in a secular bull market, no need wait 50 years. Just ride it until stagnation or secular bear comes. Don’t fight the trend.

Bro, I still remember Buffett said don’t bet against US.

 

[DevilPlate]

Bro, I still remember Buffett said don’t bet against US.

He himself recently said USD going down to Hell leh

Maybe he meant 10/20/30y UST gona chibaboom >10% and/or hyperinflation?

 

[mooseolly]

Nobody knows whether we are in secular bear or bull.
Hindsight 20/20

Maybe next yr Global sovereign debt chibaboom

So far so good with the indexes hitting multiple ATH this year. We already have two cyclical correction , covid and 2022 within this secular bull. When will it stagnant idk but no need to fight the trend.

 

[mooseolly]

Btw I am not telling people to FOMO and buy at ATH. Even if indexes ATH also have undervalued stocks although it is only a handful. Cannot say index ATH so everything is overvalued.

Otherwise it will be like saying all Singaporeans are rich because our gdp per capita one of the highest in the world.

 

[elvintay07]

So far so good with the indexes hitting multiple ATH this year. We already have two cyclical correction , covid and 2022 within this secular bull. When will it stagnant idk but no need to fight the trend.

I think US will continue to do well in the next 50 years. China is the next closest and they are good. But mentality they are not there yet.

 

[elvintay07]

Btw I am not telling people to FOMO and buy at ATH. Even if indexes ATH also have undervalued stocks although it is only a handful. Cannot say index ATH so everything is overvalued.

Otherwise it will be like saying all Singaporeans are rich because our gdp per capita one of the highest in the world.

Agree. But super difficult to find the gems. Most of the value for money is more like broken business.

 

[Jirachi]

As Louis-Vincent Gave has pointed out, US likes to throw their bond market under the bus in order to pump up stocks, so no wonder 60% US equity/40% US bonds does worse than 100% equity. If it was 40% non-US bonds the result may be different.

Your favourite GIC CEO still loves 60-40

 

[Jirachi]

if $2m then want to be safe will be 12 trache into world index. This strategy likely will benefit your next few gen

if want to be millionaire or billionaire then showhand in crypto. This is make or break. Within years can be multi millionaire or back to become dog.

I just go S&P 500. World Index is too volatile for me.

 

[elvintay07]

I just go S&P 500. World Index is too volatile for me.

Both move in the same pattern with US gaining more. If US gone case then you see the world index more stable

 

[weng0202]

I just go S&P 500. World Index is too volatile for me.

Isn't world index like 60-70% US stocks?