haddington21
Junior Member
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- 10
You are 100% correct, carry on.
That's why Jon Snow will now disappear into the darkness.
Will you ever hear from him again? You'd hope not.
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USA Stocks discussion - Part 3
- Thread starter Chiron
- Start date
That's why Jon Snow will now disappear into the darkness.
Will you ever hear from him again? You'd hope not.
kamala is objectively worse for the markets, higher tax rates, wealth tax, higher stock buyback tax, it’s wholesale wealth confiscation. Of course none of this garbage will be passed unless they sweep all 3 branches of the gov, which is extremely unlikely.
Noooooooo...come back.
The night watch needs you.
We need you as the indicator to buy.
Jon Snow wasn't raised to be a quitter.
Keep trying, you'll be right one day.
The ppl behind Kamala Harris have another agenda much worse than any of the socialist taxes or the socialist policies mentioned so far.
If Kamala Harris becomes the President, we will have a global nuclear WW3 blamed on Russia, just like how the Ukraine war is blamed on Russia. By 2028, there won't be another US Presidential election as martial law is declared to give the ruling power absolute control over the chaotic masses.
But as these public figures are now losing mass support quickly to Trump, we'll be safe for another 4 years with the US nuclear button in proper hands.
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Quote to use in future to call out your bullsai. What you wrote is YOUR OWN WORDS liao. @limster u be my witness can?
aurvandil
Senior Member
- Joined
- Apr 11, 2019
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The margins in the House and Senate are razor thin. Whoever wins the top of the ballot is likely to win the bottom of the ballot.
I am a big fan of Allan Lichtman and his 13 keys. The sucessful DNC without social unrest and the dropping out of RFK have turned two more keys in favour of Kamala. Based on that model, we are likely to see a Kamala victory. Good chance for this to extend down ballot for the Dems to retain the Senate and retake the House.
If she wins, she wll probably go with the same team that delivered the current US soft landing. Biggest concern I have is whether she will be able to retain Yellen. I think Powell will stay on as FED chair but there have been some question marks as to whether Yellen wants another term as Treasury Sec.
I'm surprised to see you predicting Kamala Harris or some other Democrat will win the US Presidential election even though the evidence points otherwise.
Here's your Democrat supporters:
Which part is bullsai? Kamala Harris become President? Of course, it won't happen.
Adam Khoo argues that the US stock market can rally after the 1st rate cut and it has happened many times in the past.
However, his viewpoint is a typical "frequentist" logic (statistical probability of rally, as opposed to Bayesian). And it doesn't predict with certainty that the rally can happen.
My fav macro guru David Cervantes also says the US stock market can continue rally through the Fed rate cutting cycle because the Fed put has been repriced higher. His full argument is below and is based on understanding Fed policy reaction function to the incoming economic data and the subsequent market reaction to Fed action.
https://www.pinebrookcap.com/p/us-economic-growth-update-73e
This is not to say that GDP will not continue to slow down or that the deterioration in the labor market, judging by the U3 rate, will be arrested. In fact, these two metrics may get worse, as economic momentum (positive or negative) is a real thing.
GDP for Q3 is at its lowest nowcasted point this quarter thus far.
The labor market is at its softest since the post covid economic rebound.
Some of this is a feature, not a bug, consistent with the Fed’s attempts at cooling the economy.
What should be inferred from the “growth scare” being over subtitle of this note is that the scare part should be minimized when looking at the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop.
In rationalizing the Fed’s policy pivot, Jerome Powell provided market participants with policy clarity by clearly articulating the Fed’s reaction function with respect to the evolution of incoming economic data.
These three sentences encapsulate the recent Fed pivot. The first two refocus the Fed’s strategic goal. The last sentence establishes the Fed’s commitment. This summer’s strategic ambiguity over the dual mandate got shot in the head and “the direction of travel is clear” (Powell).
What this means is that the Fed’s is no longer institutionally wedded to a path or pace of rate cuts, and instead has a “whatever it takes” mindset to getting the job done.
[NB: I believe market will crash in the rate cutting cycle in 2025 due to anti-Trump conspiracy theory, so it is at odds with the above]
However, his viewpoint is a typical "frequentist" logic (statistical probability of rally, as opposed to Bayesian). And it doesn't predict with certainty that the rally can happen.
My fav macro guru David Cervantes also says the US stock market can continue rally through the Fed rate cutting cycle because the Fed put has been repriced higher. His full argument is below and is based on understanding Fed policy reaction function to the incoming economic data and the subsequent market reaction to Fed action.
https://www.pinebrookcap.com/p/us-economic-growth-update-73e
This is not to say that GDP will not continue to slow down or that the deterioration in the labor market, judging by the U3 rate, will be arrested. In fact, these two metrics may get worse, as economic momentum (positive or negative) is a real thing.
GDP for Q3 is at its lowest nowcasted point this quarter thus far.
The labor market is at its softest since the post covid economic rebound.
Some of this is a feature, not a bug, consistent with the Fed’s attempts at cooling the economy.
What should be inferred from the “growth scare” being over subtitle of this note is that the scare part should be minimized when looking at the U.S. macroeconomic backdrop.
In rationalizing the Fed’s policy pivot, Jerome Powell provided market participants with policy clarity by clearly articulating the Fed’s reaction function with respect to the evolution of incoming economic data.
- “The upside risks to inflation have diminished”.
- “The downside risks to employment have increased”.
- “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability.”
These three sentences encapsulate the recent Fed pivot. The first two refocus the Fed’s strategic goal. The last sentence establishes the Fed’s commitment. This summer’s strategic ambiguity over the dual mandate got shot in the head and “the direction of travel is clear” (Powell).
What this means is that the Fed’s is no longer institutionally wedded to a path or pace of rate cuts, and instead has a “whatever it takes” mindset to getting the job done.
- This policy clarity will lower interest rate volatility in the bond market, which will support risk assets.
- Any additional economic weakness will be looked through, as firm expectations of policy support will allow investors to assume that the business cycle will remain intact.
- This is not dissimilar to how an equity share can rally despite near term earnings shortfalls as long as the outlook remains positive.
- In other words, the Fed Put has been repriced at a higher strike price.
[NB: I believe market will crash in the rate cutting cycle in 2025 due to anti-Trump conspiracy theory, so it is at odds with the above]
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i wonder about the youth votes though, they seemed to appeal alot more to kamala
Razor thin means that any radical ideas to revamp the tax code will be met with fierce resistance. As usual nothing much will get done in the next 4 years.
DevilPlate
Arch-Supremacy Member
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WW3 not scary enough for u?
Then only smthing like end of world Zombie virus liao
Would be scary if it wasn’t a conspiracy theory.
Guys, start betting on Trump to be President. This is 100% assured outcome.
1. Tulsi Gabbard has defected to Trump's camp.
2. Kamala Harris only has an estimated 10% support according to Martin Armstrong's computer.
Tulsi Gabbard endorses Trump
1. Tulsi Gabbard has defected to Trump's camp.
2. Kamala Harris only has an estimated 10% support according to Martin Armstrong's computer.
Tulsi Gabbard endorses Trump
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- Joined
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Pls leave politics out of this thread.
You do not seem to know how to stock pick.
Govt policy is a big factor in stocks performance.
Trump policies will support
1. natural gas
2. small modular nuclear
3. US manufacturing boom (MAGA policies)
and stock picks along those lines may bring extraordinary results from 2025 onwards. Now how about you contribute something that can help us all make loads of $$.
Two ways big money is made in stock market:
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.
2. small modular nuclear
What is the best way to invest in nuclear?
Those data centers need yuuuge energy.
3. US manufacturing boom (MAGA policies)
Time to buy INTC LEAPS?
2. small modular nuclear
What is the best way to invest in nuclear?
Those data centers need yuuuge energy.
3. US manufacturing boom (MAGA policies)
Time to buy INTC LEAPS?
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