Yen Exchange Rate Watch

[dimitri_can]

Down Down Down!!!

 

[Kahlan]

aiyah, it just went up 15.5000 15.6400

 

[vaxvms]

what go up must come down

 

[stars87]

i heard somewhere (cant recall, probably CNA or foreign affairs) is because Naoto Kan, is a relatively noob when it comes to managing bureaucrats. for those who are aware, Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) is one of the most powerful and influential ministries in Tokyo, controlling budget and spending limits for almost every ministry and politicians. very dangerous to cross swords with them.

the former Finance minister was a relative heavy weight, having come from the ranks of the MoF (former burreaucrat) and is considered to wield plenty of influence. his decision to leave the MoF on "health reasons" bodes ill for the DPJ's plan to control the rising deficit and simulteneously increase spending for social services and revitalize the economy (i.e overambitious agenda, trying to spend while saving, probably undoable)

current public debt is at about 180% of GDP. long term projections into 2020 would see a large chunk of taxation revenue being used to pay back interest on bonds. but the thing about Japan that most people are unaware of, is that the Japanese still have one of the highest amount of personal savings in the world. approximately 16 trillion USD in savings across all households in Japan. that could easily bail out the national debt of Japan and probably still have plenty left to spare to boost economic growth.

but the problem here is this

a) no one wants to spend when they have to save $ to care for their old parents and themselves

b) uncertain economic outlook makes them spend less

c) shrinking tax base as older Japanese retire (babyboomers) and greater strain on social security benefits (e.g hospitals, geriatric care and social services)

so these next 3-5 years would be a very interesting time for Japan. it will literally spell the fate of Japan in the 21st century, a power in decline or the remarkable turnaround.

what would this mean for the yen ? medium to long term projections.

either

scenario 1

like what one recent chinese monetary policy guy / top official said, the yen is useless and is likely to fall into a downward spiral of decline in influence and importance as a reserve currency. with increased borrowings (increased supply of yen as the gov borrow more) and less demand (less need to hoard reserves in yen or spend or pay in yen), yen is likely to become cheaper as it declines with Japan

scenario 2

Hatoyama/Ozawa 's economic reform/trim the fat spending scheme works, Japanese spend more and open their society to immigration to reverse the negative population impact, with a healthy consumer spending powering Japan's economy and revitalizing Japan's industrial base. yen is likely to hold steady or weaken slightly as increased revenues remove need to borrow as much from the Japanese government.

 

[chanvh]

wow, seems like either way in both scenario 1 or 2, we win

 

[evilerniex]

i like scenario 1

scenario 2 will mean u will see more and more ah tiongs in japan

 

[stars87]

i like scenario 1

scenario 2 will mean u will see more and more ah tiongs in japan

but if scenario 1 occur, likely that soft power/appeal of Japan will decline too. i kinda pity hatoyama/ozawa in this sense. its a really heavy burden to be on their shoulders. history will not take too kindly to them if they fail.

ah thiongs already there lor. they taking over tokyo and osaka bit by bit and before you know it. BAM ! ah thiongs have infiltrated japanese society, but generally i find the ah thiongs that live in Japan, quite different from the ah thiongs in singapore. they are forced to learn the language and by living there, acquisciece to the culture. they dont form their own little enclaves. ironically given how resistant the Japanese are to taking immigrants, i think ah thiongs are better intergreated there than they are here. to them, singapore is just a stepping stone/transient stop to a better place (or is that a reflection of our own insecurities ?)

 

[evilerniex]

but if scenario 1 occur, likely that soft power/appeal of Japan will decline too. i kinda pity hatoyama/ozawa in this sense. its a really heavy burden to be on their shoulders. history will not take too kindly to them if they fail.

ah thiongs already there lor. they taking over tokyo and osaka bit by bit and before you know it. BAM ! ah thiongs have infiltrated japanese society, but generally i find the ah thiongs that live in Japan, quite different from the ah thiongs in singapore. they are forced to learn the language and by living there, acquisciece to the culture. they dont form their own little enclaves. ironically given how resistant the Japanese are to taking immigrants, i think ah thiongs are better intergreated there than they are here. to them, singapore is just a stepping stone/transient stop to a better place (or is that a reflection of our own insecurities ?)

at least they havent invaded other more ulu cities like sendai or fukuoka

yah, the ah tiongs there integrate very well with the jap society. u wun even know they are tiongs unless u hear then speak mandarin. whereas the tiongs in sg are easily distinguishable by their behavior and language

 

[stars87]

at least they havent invaded other more ulu cities like sendai or fukuoka

yah, the ah tiongs there integrate very well with the jap society. u wun even know they are tiongs unless u hear then speak mandarin. whereas the tiongs in sg are easily distinguishable by their behavior and language

hahaha. yeah. true.

hard to say leh. u know when brother dreamer and me went to the crab buffet place in sapporo, the waiteress there were all ah thiong. no joke. if they can invade the northern land of hokkaido, confirm sure infiltrate sendai and fukoka.

its no longer a question of IF but a question of when Japanese have to face up to immigration. the business community has programs and stuff like that to import in foreign talent. but the political decision of accepting them and opening up to them has to be taken in a matter of time. theres no way Japan can continue to sweep this issue under the carpet and deny it exists. kinda like a day of reckoning for them and what does it mean to be ninhonjin.

 

[toshiro_sg]

what go up must come down

sadly no time for it to go down...desparate need to change soon going in early feb

 

[toshiro_sg]

hahaha. yeah. true.

hard to say leh. u know when brother dreamer and me went to the crab buffet place in sapporo, the waiteress there were all ah thiong. no joke. if they can invade the northern land of hokkaido, confirm sure infiltrate sendai and fukoka.

its no longer a question of IF but a question of when Japanese have to face up to immigration. the business community has programs and stuff like that to import in foreign talent. but the political decision of accepting them and opening up to them has to be taken in a matter of time. theres no way Japan can continue to sweep this issue under the carpet and deny it exists. kinda like a day of reckoning for them and what does it mean to be ninhonjin.

well it doesn't take long for SG to come to term on this issue....Japan will soon yield to pressure to recognise FT power lol

 

[sereneong19]

i heard somewhere (cant recall, probably CNA or foreign affairs) is because Naoto Kan, is a relatively noob when it comes to managing bureaucrats. for those who are aware, Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) is one of the most powerful and influential ministries in Tokyo, controlling budget and spending limits for almost every ministry and politicians. very dangerous to cross swords with them.

the former Finance minister was a relative heavy weight, having come from the ranks of the MoF (former burreaucrat) and is considered to wield plenty of influence. his decision to leave the MoF on "health reasons" bodes ill for the DPJ's plan to control the rising deficit and simulteneously increase spending for social services and revitalize the economy (i.e overambitious agenda, trying to spend while saving, probably undoable)

current public debt is at about 180% of GDP. long term projections into 2020 would see a large chunk of taxation revenue being used to pay back interest on bonds. but the thing about Japan that most people are unaware of, is that the Japanese still have one of the highest amount of personal savings in the world. approximately 16 trillion USD in savings across all households in Japan. that could easily bail out the national debt of Japan and probably still have plenty left to spare to boost economic growth.

but the problem here is this

a) no one wants to spend when they have to save $ to care for their old parents and themselves

b) uncertain economic outlook makes them spend less

c) shrinking tax base as older Japanese retire (babyboomers) and greater strain on social security benefits (e.g hospitals, geriatric care and social services)

so these next 3-5 years would be a very interesting time for Japan. it will literally spell the fate of Japan in the 21st century, a power in decline or the remarkable turnaround.

what would this mean for the yen ? medium to long term projections.

either

scenario 1

like what one recent chinese monetary policy guy / top official said, the yen is useless and is likely to fall into a downward spiral of decline in influence and importance as a reserve currency. with increased borrowings (increased supply of yen as the gov borrow more) and less demand (less need to hoard reserves in yen or spend or pay in yen), yen is likely to become cheaper as it declines with Japan

scenario 2

Hatoyama/Ozawa 's economic reform/trim the fat spending scheme works, Japanese spend more and open their society to immigration to reverse the negative population impact, with a healthy consumer spending powering Japan's economy and revitalizing Japan's industrial base. yen is likely to hold steady or weaken slightly as increased revenues remove need to borrow as much from the Japanese government.

you are indeed interesting....

 

[stars87]

you are indeed interesting....

lets just say im a huge fan of chalmers johnson and the Japanese iron triangle.

 

[vaxvms]

no horse run~~~~~~~~~~~

Japanese Yen 1,000 15.6200 15.7700

 

[Kahlan]

i'm in shock now. faint. Have not changed yet.

Think i got till tomorrow to change.

 

[xdivider]

Make me wish i stockpiled when the exchange rate was like 15.1x.........

 

[pker88]

i'm in shock now. faint. Have not changed yet.

Think i got till tomorrow to change.

U better change it asap as uflying off damm soon
even the rate is bad u still got to change Liao
since it's just fewdays then u flying off

 

[gundamhamtaro]

hahaha. yeah. true.

hard to say leh. u know when brother dreamer and me went to the crab buffet place in sapporo, the waiteress there were all ah thiong.

it was already like this 4 or 5 years back, maybe even earlier. u go major cities, ramen store inside pratically all ah thiongs.

some really expert ones (mostly those doing major business for already 10+ years in JP) u cant distinguish them, but most of them u hear them speak 1 word u know they're not local JP liao.

thas y i always scratching my head when they say JP still not open to foriegners lol (assuming they all got in legally). bull**** lor u go almost anywhere also can see lots of them (angmoh, chinese, nigerians, indians etc). or maybe just the major cities.

 

[sereneong19]

it was already like this 4 or 5 years back, maybe even earlier. u go major cities, ramen store inside pratically all ah thiongs.

some really expert ones (mostly those doing major business for already 10+ years in JP) u cant distinguish them, but most of them u hear them speak 1 word u know they're not local JP liao.

thas y i always scratching my head when they say JP still not open to foriegners lol (assuming they all got in legally). bull**** lor u go almost anywhere also can see lots of them (angmoh, chinese, nigerians, indians etc). or maybe just the major cities.

maybe they are there to study or work?

 

[Kahlan]

U better change it asap as uflying off damm soon
even the rate is bad u still got to change Liao
since it's just fewdays then u flying off

yah, my friend works at Raffles Place, so i told her to change either today or tomorrow for me, when she has time.