you mean you didn't know that the global financial system and stock market is being manipulated by the illuminati?
*Official* Shiny Things club - Part 2
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you mean you didn't know that the global financial system and stock market is being manipulated by the illuminati?
smart alex
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unhinged_loon
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Does that include home equity.
Shiny Things
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Busy week at work, so I'm catching up on a giant pile of queries here. Brace yourselves.
Firstly let's talk about Donny Two Scoops and his Twitter problem. Markets have whipsawed a bit today on the back of the Prez's tweets, but here's a thing to remember, in this and any other episode of market volatility: it doesn't matter to you. If you're in your thirties, your forties, or even your fifties, Donald Trump will be out of office and his tariffs will have long since been unwound by the time you retire and start selling down your portfolio. His noise is an excuse for you to buy more at a lower price.
They're two different things. IWDA owns stocks from all over the world; VUSD owns stocks from just the USA. You'd probably prefer to own IWDA, because that way you're not just making a concentrated bet on the US stock market.
Peipei, once again you’ve found some unrelated piece of information and spun it into some bonkers conspiracy theory. You have literally made this whole thing up.
I never say this to anyone, but I don’t think you should be investing.
I think you should put your money in SSBs, because frankly you are one of the rare people who doesn’t have the temperament to invest and doesn’t show any interest in learning.
No, there are plenty of ways to short stocks (outside Singapore, at least). Buy put options; sell single-stock futures; borrow the stock and short it outright...
Yeah, I do express numbers in today’s dollars. And it never hurts to aim for higher, but having $1mio in mind helps make it clear that an amount of money that might seem like a lot really doesn’t need too much savings effort at all.
Why are you buying so much IWDA?
Anyway, here are the rules to follow:
1 - if you’re investing more than $1,000 a month, use Interactive Brokers for global stocks and Stanchart for local stocks;
2 - otherwise, use Stanchart for global stocks and MBKE MIP for local stocks.
Does that make sense?
Your example’s a little contrived, because usually companies issue converts with a shorter duration (3-5 years) and a strike price much closer to the money.
Anyway. Any stock has a chance of becoming a multi-bagger, but just because the bond holders can convert at 100 doesn’t mean they will. In this case, the bond holders will only convert if the stock is over 100 at expiry. (You might think “that’s just like a call option on the stock”… and you’d be right! A convertible bond is just a regular bond plus a call option.)
Just pay the conversion fees. Why wouldn’t you want to convert to USD in the first place?
I’ll be blunt with you mate - you are probably neither as good a trader, nor as good a marketer, as Ray Dalio is. Your best bet for getting rich is just to buy the index and go to the pub.
Huh, good question - why do you ask?
Anyway it turns out the answer is no. You can view IWDA’s holdings on the IWDA website, and it looks like Hyatt’s not on that list. (Oddly, SPH, which is less than half the size of Hyatt, is on the list. Anyway, file this under “quirks that don’t actually make any difference to your returns but are nevertheless interesting”.)
Uh, sure. My economics degree is nearly twenty years old now, and MMT would have horrified my enthusiastically-neoclassicist university professors anyway, but as best I understand it: MMT is sort of an evolution of Keynesian thinking that argues that governments should fund spending by, essentially, printing money; and that the fears of inflation triggered by money-printing are overblown, because if inflation starts to pick up, the government can control it by jacking up taxes and issuing bonds to suck up all the money that’s sloshing around the system.
Er, I mean, it’s not a question of whether or not I believe in margin trading; margin trading exists. It’s not the Easter Bunny.
Anyway, no, I would not do that, because you have no way of knowing in advance whether the all-time low really is unjustified. Don’t look at me for an excuse to buy GE.
I mean, my opinion would be “why does a Singaporean investor want to own a bunch of rando cheapass downmarket Hyatt-select-service motels in the USA that can’t even hit a three-digit RevPAR?”. ARA presumably aren’t idiots - if these properties were any good they’d be hanging on to them instead of flogging them to retail.
The time horizon’s not really “neither here nor there” at all; the time horizon affects how long you’ve got to ride out any swings and roundabouts in the markets.
The right answer would be to park it in a mix of stocks and bonds that reflects someone retiring in eight years’ time. (If you wanted it in less than five years, I’d say put it all in bonds; less than three years, I’d say leave it all in the bank.)
I haven’t looked at selling on Google Play. Were the previous versions on there?
Yeah, POSB Invest-Saver is not amazing for this, because you can’t easily say “buy ES3 this month” or “buy MBH this month”. That said, with POSB you can just pump the same amount into everything each month, and then rebalance every few months.
I’ve released a new version for 2019, yeah. Unfortunately I can’t offer update pricing for the book, because there’s been a fair bit of new content added; but it’s still available at the same low price.
Dividend withholding; and estate taxes. If you buy the Irish-domiciled ETFs, there’s no estate tax, and a more favorable dividend withholding rate.
Because all that matters is that the ETF tracks its index, not what price it trades at. ES3 used to trade at $34.20 in today’s dollars before it split 10:1 a decade or so back.
The ETF could trade at $1 or $100; as long as it goes up 1% when the index goes up 1%, or goes down 1% when the index goes down 1%, that’s all that matters.
I would say crikey, you’ve done really well for yourself!
Yes. You can use this lump sum as a foundation for an investment for buying a house, for a wedding, for retirement… how you allocate your cash will depend on what your time horizon looks like, but yes you should pick a goal and then invest toward that time horizon.
Oooh… y’know what, this is not actually right. As a bond’s yield (or its coupon) increases, its duration decreases.
This makes sense for higher-coupon bonds: the cashflows of the bond become more front-loaded, so they’re less risky. But as a bond’s yield increases, the further-out cashflows get discounted harder; so they become smaller in PV terms, and contribute less to the duration calculation.
The reason higher-YTM funds have higher volatility than govvy bond funds is, I suspect, just because they’ve got different credits (unless I misread your post). IG bond funds (and HY even more so) are affected by moves in the credit spread as well as moves in the underlying interest rate curves.
MBH isn’t explicitly government-backed? Sure, the government owns a big stake in a lot of them, but.
Not really, no, because when you buy overseas bonds you also take on currency risk. It’s two-sided risk (currencies can move both ways!) and you’re generally not getting a very big yield pickup in return.
The point of bonds is to provide a stable asset in your portfolio… but USDSGD can swing around by 10% a year. That’s nearly as much as stocks, and that’s not particularly stable.
We’ve been over this? I prefer IWDA because it automatically reinvests dividends.
I’m gonna reject the premise of your question. Why do you want to specifically invest in US equities at the expense of the rest of the world?
You can increase the security pretty easily. For large accounts, IB will give you a hardware token; their iOS app has built-in Face ID as well.
I’m going to guess you don’t panic about online banking, and that has the same level of security.
[QUTOE]
As a side note - I bought and read your book mid last year (great read thanks
) . What does the 2019 edition touch on - is there any new info on other broker options?[/QUOTE]
Sure, MBKE is now a better option than POSB IS for small investors who want to buy ES3 and MBH. Everything else is the same.
Yep, you’re basically right. I’d personally use ES3-IWDA-ES3-IWDA-MBH, so that you’re not buying toooooo many bonds.
Just don’t forget to check in every six months or so and make sure you’re rebalancing to get to your target allocations (110 minus your age, remember).
Firstly let's talk about Donny Two Scoops and his Twitter problem. Markets have whipsawed a bit today on the back of the Prez's tweets, but here's a thing to remember, in this and any other episode of market volatility: it doesn't matter to you. If you're in your thirties, your forties, or even your fifties, Donald Trump will be out of office and his tariffs will have long since been unwound by the time you retire and start selling down your portfolio. His noise is an excuse for you to buy more at a lower price.
They're two different things. IWDA owns stocks from all over the world; VUSD owns stocks from just the USA. You'd probably prefer to own IWDA, because that way you're not just making a concentrated bet on the US stock market.
Peipei, once again you’ve found some unrelated piece of information and spun it into some bonkers conspiracy theory. You have literally made this whole thing up.
I never say this to anyone, but I don’t think you should be investing.
I think you should put your money in SSBs, because frankly you are one of the rare people who doesn’t have the temperament to invest and doesn’t show any interest in learning.
No, there are plenty of ways to short stocks (outside Singapore, at least). Buy put options; sell single-stock futures; borrow the stock and short it outright...
Yeah, I do express numbers in today’s dollars. And it never hurts to aim for higher, but having $1mio in mind helps make it clear that an amount of money that might seem like a lot really doesn’t need too much savings effort at all.
Why are you buying so much IWDA?
Anyway, here are the rules to follow:
1 - if you’re investing more than $1,000 a month, use Interactive Brokers for global stocks and Stanchart for local stocks;
2 - otherwise, use Stanchart for global stocks and MBKE MIP for local stocks.
Does that make sense?
Your example’s a little contrived, because usually companies issue converts with a shorter duration (3-5 years) and a strike price much closer to the money.
Anyway. Any stock has a chance of becoming a multi-bagger, but just because the bond holders can convert at 100 doesn’t mean they will. In this case, the bond holders will only convert if the stock is over 100 at expiry. (You might think “that’s just like a call option on the stock”… and you’d be right! A convertible bond is just a regular bond plus a call option.)
Just pay the conversion fees. Why wouldn’t you want to convert to USD in the first place?
I’ll be blunt with you mate - you are probably neither as good a trader, nor as good a marketer, as Ray Dalio is. Your best bet for getting rich is just to buy the index and go to the pub.
Huh, good question - why do you ask?
Anyway it turns out the answer is no. You can view IWDA’s holdings on the IWDA website, and it looks like Hyatt’s not on that list. (Oddly, SPH, which is less than half the size of Hyatt, is on the list. Anyway, file this under “quirks that don’t actually make any difference to your returns but are nevertheless interesting”.)
Uh, sure. My economics degree is nearly twenty years old now, and MMT would have horrified my enthusiastically-neoclassicist university professors anyway, but as best I understand it: MMT is sort of an evolution of Keynesian thinking that argues that governments should fund spending by, essentially, printing money; and that the fears of inflation triggered by money-printing are overblown, because if inflation starts to pick up, the government can control it by jacking up taxes and issuing bonds to suck up all the money that’s sloshing around the system.
Er, I mean, it’s not a question of whether or not I believe in margin trading; margin trading exists. It’s not the Easter Bunny.
Anyway, no, I would not do that, because you have no way of knowing in advance whether the all-time low really is unjustified. Don’t look at me for an excuse to buy GE.
I mean, my opinion would be “why does a Singaporean investor want to own a bunch of rando cheapass downmarket Hyatt-select-service motels in the USA that can’t even hit a three-digit RevPAR?”. ARA presumably aren’t idiots - if these properties were any good they’d be hanging on to them instead of flogging them to retail.
The time horizon’s not really “neither here nor there” at all; the time horizon affects how long you’ve got to ride out any swings and roundabouts in the markets.
The right answer would be to park it in a mix of stocks and bonds that reflects someone retiring in eight years’ time. (If you wanted it in less than five years, I’d say put it all in bonds; less than three years, I’d say leave it all in the bank.)
I haven’t looked at selling on Google Play. Were the previous versions on there?
Yeah, POSB Invest-Saver is not amazing for this, because you can’t easily say “buy ES3 this month” or “buy MBH this month”. That said, with POSB you can just pump the same amount into everything each month, and then rebalance every few months.
Sort of. IWDA, ES3, and MBH.
I’ve released a new version for 2019, yeah. Unfortunately I can’t offer update pricing for the book, because there’s been a fair bit of new content added; but it’s still available at the same low price.
Dividend withholding; and estate taxes. If you buy the Irish-domiciled ETFs, there’s no estate tax, and a more favorable dividend withholding rate.
Because all that matters is that the ETF tracks its index, not what price it trades at. ES3 used to trade at $34.20 in today’s dollars before it split 10:1 a decade or so back.
The ETF could trade at $1 or $100; as long as it goes up 1% when the index goes up 1%, or goes down 1% when the index goes down 1%, that’s all that matters.
I would say crikey, you’ve done really well for yourself!
Any advice on what i can do with it aside from letting it stay in the bank or should i max my SSB and leave the 100k.
Yes. You can use this lump sum as a foundation for an investment for buying a house, for a wedding, for retirement… how you allocate your cash will depend on what your time horizon looks like, but yes you should pick a goal and then invest toward that time horizon.
Oooh… y’know what, this is not actually right. As a bond’s yield (or its coupon) increases, its duration decreases.
This makes sense for higher-coupon bonds: the cashflows of the bond become more front-loaded, so they’re less risky. But as a bond’s yield increases, the further-out cashflows get discounted harder; so they become smaller in PV terms, and contribute less to the duration calculation.
The reason higher-YTM funds have higher volatility than govvy bond funds is, I suspect, just because they’ve got different credits (unless I misread your post). IG bond funds (and HY even more so) are affected by moves in the credit spread as well as moves in the underlying interest rate curves.
MBH isn’t explicitly government-backed? Sure, the government owns a big stake in a lot of them, but.
Not really, no, because when you buy overseas bonds you also take on currency risk. It’s two-sided risk (currencies can move both ways!) and you’re generally not getting a very big yield pickup in return.
The point of bonds is to provide a stable asset in your portfolio… but USDSGD can swing around by 10% a year. That’s nearly as much as stocks, and that’s not particularly stable.
We’ve been over this? I prefer IWDA because it automatically reinvests dividends.
I’m gonna reject the premise of your question. Why do you want to specifically invest in US equities at the expense of the rest of the world?
You can increase the security pretty easily. For large accounts, IB will give you a hardware token; their iOS app has built-in Face ID as well.
I’m going to guess you don’t panic about online banking, and that has the same level of security.
[QUTOE]
As a side note - I bought and read your book mid last year (great read thanks
) . What does the 2019 edition touch on - is there any new info on other broker options?[/QUOTE]Sure, MBKE is now a better option than POSB IS for small investors who want to buy ES3 and MBH. Everything else is the same.
Yep, you’re basically right. I’d personally use ES3-IWDA-ES3-IWDA-MBH, so that you’re not buying toooooo many bonds.
Just don’t forget to check in every six months or so and make sure you’re rebalancing to get to your target allocations (110 minus your age, remember).
Shiny Things
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Unfortunately not really. This is why I keep saying "if you're looking to open a Singaporean roboadvisor, call me!".
BBCWatcher
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The fund management philosophy of the global stock index funds (IWDA, VWRD, etc.) is to grab at least 80% or 85% of the market capitalization — the top stocks — from each of the stock markets. The SGX is a runt (and getting runtier), so when the fund managers grab the top portion of the market they get SPH. When they grab the top portion of the U.S. stock markets they don’t get Hyatt.
This fund management rule limits the dominance of the larger (market cap) stock markets, particularly the U.S. markets. But the U.S. markets are getting so large that even with this longstanding rule in place U.S. stock listings represent the majority of IWDA’s market cap.
These funds cannot really pick every stock — 99% of stocks, for example — because that would be too expensive with too little benefit (or even some harm). VWRD tries harder on that score, but it’s still “only” thousands of stocks, not tens of thousands.
It’d be possible to pick a non-market capitalization-weighted formula, and there are a few funds (and indices) that do that.
It’s amazing to me how many people rush to press/click to buy every piece of dog food offered.
If it’s listing in Singapore, it’s probably crap, sorry to say. The only unambiguously good, recent offer I can remember was Temasek’s 2.7% coupon general obligation debt. That was a good offer if you needed a place to park some (a few) Singapore dollar funds for 5 years.
It’s a big world out there! If (for some odd reason) you specifically want to invest in real estate, even U.S. real estate, there are many, many better ways to do that, right now or any time you wish, and from the comfort of your armchair.
Stop and think for a moment: Why is this stuff being peddled in Singapore, on the SGX? Mid or downmarket Hyatt properties in the United States at what could be the peak of the U.S. economic cycle? In Singapore, on the SGX of all places? Hmmmmm....
SSBs are great for 3 year holds. Even 3 month holds, actually.
Yes, that was what I was trying to say. “Flight to quality” phenomena.
Regarding when to choose Interactive Brokers and when to choose Standard Chartered (and when to choose something else), I think we can make it reasonably simple:
1. Choose Interactive Brokers when you’re doing anything monthly or more frequently, such as buying IWDA once per month (or IWDA and EIMI every month), as long as the buy amount is moderate or higher. Also choose IB if you’re going to swing into IB with holdings of US$100,000 or more within the first 3 months of account opening. Also choose IB if you’re under age 26 and going to hit US$100,000 of total account value on or near your 26th birthday.
2. Choose Standard Chartered if you’re going to buy IWDA once every couple months (bimonthly buys) and the dollar amount is “low to moderate”: S$1,000 every two months, for example. (If about S$1,000/month or higher, go to IB and go monthly — that’s “moderate.”)
3. Choose Lion Global’s Infinity Global stock index unit trust via POEMS or DollarDex if you’re just starting out and investing S$100 or S$200 per month in global stocks, for example — and monthly is fine here. And/or if you’re using SRS funds, since neither IB nor Standard Chartered support SRS.
4. Don’t choose any of these if you’re a U.S. person or soon will be.
13luetooth
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Can someone explain the difference btween A35 and MBH?
Why A35 is no longer the preferred option to invest for bond?
Why A35 is no longer the preferred option to invest for bond?
hwckhs
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I asked the same question before and ST offered an answer - https://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/120118879-post4629.html .
The short answer is MBH gives higher return than A35, but it is a bit more volatile (eg. may take a dip during a crisis). MBH is good to long term higher gain. A35 is for stability, but lower return. I personally use MBH.
BBCWatcher
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Also, you can invest directly in Singapore government debt issues (Singapore Government Securities) every month. There are occasional auctions of traditional bonds and bills, plus every month Singapore Savings Bonds are offered. There's no management fee or commission involved to hold them to maturity, and there's either no transaction cost (traditional bonds and bills purchased directly at auction) or a low transaction cost ($2 per SSB order).
The introduction of SSBs, in particular, makes A35 much less interesting for retail investors.
The introduction of SSBs, in particular, makes A35 much less interesting for retail investors.
Ilovemathstutor
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Insured Bank Deposit Sweep Program
hi ST,
I like to ask u on this...
1. IB's Insured Bank Deposit Sweep Program.
There's a list of banks that I can choose, are there any ones that I should avoid or give priority to?
right now, I just make do with whoever they assigned to me in the list but I can opt out of the banks that I am uncomfortable with.
2. It also seems that different banks in this list gives different interest perks.
Is this correct?
hi ST,
I like to ask u on this...
1. IB's Insured Bank Deposit Sweep Program.
There's a list of banks that I can choose, are there any ones that I should avoid or give priority to?
right now, I just make do with whoever they assigned to me in the list but I can opt out of the banks that I am uncomfortable with.
2. It also seems that different banks in this list gives different interest perks.
Is this correct?
oAkEn86
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For those who are interested, I have recently "convert" my individual account to a joint account.
Took me around a month (mostly due to incomplete documentation on my part). Relatively fuss-free.
https://keykeytravels.blogspot.com/2019/05/moving-converting-from-single-to-joint.html
https://keykeytravels.blogspot.com/2019/05/moving-converting-from-single-to-joint_7.html
Transfer completed. Now pending IB to close my individual account.
Took me around a month (mostly due to incomplete documentation on my part). Relatively fuss-free.
https://keykeytravels.blogspot.com/2019/05/moving-converting-from-single-to-joint.html
https://keykeytravels.blogspot.com/2019/05/moving-converting-from-single-to-joint_7.html
Transfer completed. Now pending IB to close my individual account.
Ilovemathstutor
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Insured Bank Deposit Sweep Program (this is the program that they offer)
I can choose to have the following banks to sweep my excess deposits.
Can I check which ones did you choose?
American Express National Bank
Bank Hapoalim
Bank OZK
Bank of East Asia
Camden National Bank
Citibank, National Association
Dollar Bank, FSB
Enterprise Bank and Trust
First Internet Bank of Indiana
Florida Community Bank
Iberiabank
M&T Bank
MetaBank
Minnwest Bank
Morgan Stanley Bank, N.A
Morgan Stanley Private Bank, National Association
PNC Bank, National Association
Sterling National Bank
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, as always!
I can choose to have the following banks to sweep my excess deposits.
Can I check which ones did you choose?
American Express National Bank
Bank Hapoalim
Bank OZK
Bank of East Asia
Camden National Bank
Citibank, National Association
Dollar Bank, FSB
Enterprise Bank and Trust
First Internet Bank of Indiana
Florida Community Bank
Iberiabank
M&T Bank
MetaBank
Minnwest Bank
Morgan Stanley Bank, N.A
Morgan Stanley Private Bank, National Association
PNC Bank, National Association
Sterling National Bank
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, as always!
churnmaster
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What's the significance of 26th birthday? Just for my understanding.
If the current interest rate is expected to go up, will you still continue to buy in MBH?
hwckhs
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You do not look at price when you do DCA. Just buy regardless based on your set schedule.
BBCWatcher
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For account holders who have not reached their 26th birthday and who do not have total account values of US$100,000 or more, IB charges a lower minimum monthly commission.
You would only deal with that list if you already have a deposit at one or more of the banks on the list.
IB explains this all rather well, but, briefly, U.S. FDIC deposit insurance essentially has a US$250,000 limit per account titleholder. Consequently IB splits the swept funds into <US$250,000 chunks per bank. If you already have funds at a particular bank, IB wants to know about it so that they can adjust their splitting for you to avoid exceeding the FDIC limit at that particular bank.
If you don't have any funds on deposit at any of those banks, you've got nothing to worry about with respect to this particular program.
Wouldn't that be nice, but no. IB handles this; you're not a direct customer of any of these banks -- not really anyway. Sorry, you're not getting a free toaster.
Shiny Things
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BBCW beat me to this, but the answer is no, you almost certainly don't care and you should leave all of them checked.
You'd only uncheck one if you've already hit the FDIC deposit limit (a quarter million USD) at the US arm of one of those banks, and you wanted to not add any more deposits to that bank.
Ilovemathstutor
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hi ST,
1. why is it that some stock counters that are listed on NYSE have it's info found on the Nasdaq website?
Why doesn't these NYSE stocks have their financial information listed on the NYSE website, if it exists?
2. Which would u subscribe to for Data on IB as a retail investor?
L1 or L2 data? Care to share why?
3. Pls let me know if this understanding is correct.
Say I have 5m usd in funds on IB...
3.1. the first 250k usd would be covered by SPIC insurance, which is backed by Well Fargos?
3.2. the next 2.5m usd would be covered by the FDIC sweep program, which is covered by the list of banks listed below? ( the 18 banks that I copied and paste in my earlier question )
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, created by the US congress
3.3. the balance 2.25m usd would be covered by IB... assuming it doesn't turn turtle?
Is this understanding correct? What would u advice if u have 5m usd, would u park to a max of 2.75m usd on IB because that's the max insurance coverage it possesses?
4. There's this "Excess Funds Sweep", may I know what is this?
This "Excess Funds Sweep" isn't the same as the FDIC Sweep program, right?
The Insured Bank Deposit Sweep Program refers to the FDIC Sweep Program, right?
V Confused...
thanks in advance, as usual.
1. why is it that some stock counters that are listed on NYSE have it's info found on the Nasdaq website?
Why doesn't these NYSE stocks have their financial information listed on the NYSE website, if it exists?
2. Which would u subscribe to for Data on IB as a retail investor?
L1 or L2 data? Care to share why?
3. Pls let me know if this understanding is correct.
Say I have 5m usd in funds on IB...
3.1. the first 250k usd would be covered by SPIC insurance, which is backed by Well Fargos?
3.2. the next 2.5m usd would be covered by the FDIC sweep program, which is covered by the list of banks listed below? ( the 18 banks that I copied and paste in my earlier question )
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, created by the US congress
3.3. the balance 2.25m usd would be covered by IB... assuming it doesn't turn turtle?
Is this understanding correct? What would u advice if u have 5m usd, would u park to a max of 2.75m usd on IB because that's the max insurance coverage it possesses?
4. There's this "Excess Funds Sweep", may I know what is this?
This "Excess Funds Sweep" isn't the same as the FDIC Sweep program, right?
The Insured Bank Deposit Sweep Program refers to the FDIC Sweep Program, right?
V Confused...
thanks in advance, as usual.
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