*Official* Shiny Things club - Part 2

[limster]

Which assets benefit from rate cut?

SIA retail bonds, Temasek retail bonds, Astrea IV, Astrea V... all those products that some people here keep on saying are "bad", even though all heavily oversubscribed , and all currently above IPO price (or going to be, for Astrea V).

 

[eD1s0n]

hey i see a fear monger came in

 

[bobobob]

Hi ST, u mentioned about him keeping usd cash exposes him to fx risk, and im wondering since iwda is traded in usd, arent investors exposed to fx risk as well? We will all cash out at some point right?

It's for this reason that ST recommends you buy STI etf in equal portion to Global etf.

 

[Nick67]

Hi all, very first post on HWZ forums although I have been reading quite a bit.

I'm looking to open an SRS account to get some tax break (although I'm still a little sketchy on locking up funds till retirement!) and use that funds to invest. I read that now it's better to buy SSB directly from the gov vs buying A35. So should I just use the SRS to fully purchase ES3?

So for example the proportion would look something like:
$15.3k ES3 (SRS-OCBC)
$15.3k IWDA (SCB)
$7.65k SSB

Another question I have is regarding treating CPF as the bond portion (should I put everything in SA for higher interest floor rates?).

By treating CPF as bonds component the investments would need to be increased. Assuming I contribute $24k per year:
$15.3k ES3 (SRS-OCBC)
$32.7k ES3 (SCB)
$48k IWDA (SCB)
$24k CPF

Is that logic correct? Seems like quite a huge sum I would need to balance my portfolio if I treat CPF as the bond component.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Which assets benefit from rate cut?

SIA retail bonds, Temasek retail bonds, Astrea IV, Astrea V... all those products that some people here keep on saying are "bad", even though all heavily oversubscribed , and all currently above IPO price (or going to be, for Astrea V).

That’s unclear in the case of SIA bonds and Astrea notes, especially the riskier Astrea variants. If a hypothetical rate cut is interpreted as strong evidence of pending or actual weaknesses in the real businesses underlying Singapore Airlines and Astrea’s investments — a very reasonable interpretation — then investors may require better compensation (higher yields) to be persuaded to hold those bonds/notes. There are also possible currency-related effects.

Basically, don’t assume. Markets, especially in the short to medium term, are hard to predict.

You could argue that it's because people think the positive effect of cuts will outweigh the negative effect of an economic slowdown; or because people think that Donny Two Scoops is going to fold like a cheap umbrella on his threat to impose tariffs on Mexican imports; or whatever you like.

Mexico and the United States just reached a deal, so bingo! The announced (but not implemented) tariffs against Mexico are cancelled.

 

[BBCWatcher]

Even if you're trying to time markets (bad idea), and even if you think a recession is coming, there's no particular reason why a recession must feature a bear market in stocks. As this article explains, there have been many U.S. recessions coinciding with bullish stock markets. Using the official recession dates, here are the post-World War II examples (S&P 500 gains):

November, 1948, through October, 1949: +9%
July, 1953, through May, 1954: +18%
April, 1960, through February, 1961: +17%
January, 1980, through July, 1980: +7%
July, 1981, through November, 1982: +6%
July, 1990, through March, 1991: +5%

If you're keeping count, that's 6 recessions coinciding with S&P 500 stock index gains. Since World War II there have been 5 U.S. recessions coinciding with S&P 500 stock market declines. Only two of them were double digit declines: November, 1973, through March, 1975 (the first Oil Crisis) (-13%) and December, 2007, through June, 2009 (the Global Financial Crisis) (-37%).

Basically, if there's a recession, flip a coin. The U.S. stock market is as likely as not to post gains during the recession.

 

[yellownova]

Hi all, so I have a number of A35 and ES3 in a trading account from when I started trading (about 5 years now). And I realised my trading account fees were too high after reading the forums, definitely for the amount I was putting in occasionally - Lump sum, every year-ish.

So I started the POSB Invest Saver and now am DCA into it.

Is it OK to keep it separate? Should I just feed the RSP and leave the previously bought ETFs as is? Or do I sell away the older ETFs?

 

[FrostWurm]

Let's use history & economics theory as a guide:
I feel market cycle is turning. The Fed ready to cut rate is very bad sign. Historically fed rate cut precedes over next recession most of the time, will it be different this time?
Also inverted yield curve like now can predict 75% of past recessions in advance by 12-24 months.
Also oil price drop + gold price surging are also warning signal.
Next recession should be around in next 18-24 months period?
Whatever stock market rebounce now are probably dead cat bounce.
I definitely won't continue to DCA at current peak.
Coming economic recession may be a long drawn out one slowing dropping to bottom & recovery may be weak, hence DCA for long term may have little return to speak.

I can see the history but where is the economics theory?

All you have provided are some "indicators" but you haven't explained how recessions are caused. Want to give it a shot?

 

[hwckhs]

Hi all, so I have a number of A35 and ES3 in a trading account from when I started trading (about 5 years now). And I realised my trading account fees were too high after reading the forums, definitely for the amount I was putting in occasionally - Lump sum, every year-ish.

So I started the POSB Invest Saver and now am DCA into it.

Is it OK to keep it separate? Should I just feed the RSP and leave the previously bought ETFs as is? Or do I sell away the older ETFs?

If you want to keep them for the long term, why sell and then buy again, and pay unnecessary sell and buy commissions?

It is OK to keep it separate. If the broker is low-cost, you may use it again in future when you increase your regular investment amount. If you really want to consolidate all holdings in one place, transferring shares is usually the better option. Even if you need to pay for a transfer fee, it may work out cheaper than commissions. Do some calculations on your own and compare.

 

[sgte85]

Investing in two different countries

Hi everyone, I hope you don't mind my question.



I'm a SG citizen and Australian PR. A few years ago before I knew of Shiny Thing's book, I opened an Australian brokerage (CMC) account to DCA VAS, but never pulled the trigger.


Since Jan 19 after reading his book, I've been DCA-ing IWDA and STI using IB (Singapore account) 3k into each monthly.


Do you think it's worth for me to DCA VAS as well using CMC? Or should I just stick to IWDA + STI to keep it simple? I currently have about 400k in Australia banks just earning ~2.2-2.5% of interest and 150k in SG banks earning nothing


Thanks heaps!

 

[BBCWatcher]

I'm a SG citizen and Australian PR.... Since Jan 19 after reading his book, I've been DCA-ing IWDA and STI using IB (Singapore account) 3k into each monthly.

....I currently have about 400k in Australia banks just earning ~2.2-2.5% of interest and 150k in SG banks earning nothing

Be advised that your IB holdings, CPF, etc. are reportable and taxable in Australia. However, Australia and Singapore have a tax treaty that may offer some help.

What are you doing with respect to Australian superannuation?

Where do you plan to retire?

 

[sgte85]

Hey BBC,

Thanks for your reply!

I don't have superannuation as I work and live in Singapore now, just holding on to Australia PR as my family is still there.

I plan to retire in Singapore most likely!

 

[BBCWatcher]

I don't have superannuation as I work and live in Singapore now, just holding on to Australia PR as my family is still there.

OK, but ordinarily you would have contributed in the past. Do you have any past accumulated contributions?

 

[yellownova]

If you want to keep them for the long term, why sell and then buy again, and pay unnecessary sell and buy commissions?

It is OK to keep it separate. If the broker is low-cost, you may use it again in future when you increase your regular investment amount. If you really want to consolidate all holdings in one place, transferring shares is usually the better option. Even if you need to pay for a transfer fee, it may work out cheaper than commissions. Do some calculations on your own and compare.

Thanks for the advice.

 

[sgte85]

OK, but ordinarily you would have contributed in the past. Do you have any past accumulated contributions?

Oh, I don't have any because I was a student, and came back to Singapore straight after. I do travel there for work in the past but all the income was in SGD (Singapore clients).


Initially I wanted to invest in VAS because I was looking for an ETF and wanted to dip my hands in some of the Vanguard funds.

 

[smart alex]

Hi everyone, I hope you don't mind my question.



I'm a SG citizen and Australian PR. A few years ago before I knew of Shiny Thing's book, I opened an Australian brokerage (CMC) account to DCA VAS, but never pulled the trigger.


Since Jan 19 after reading his book, I've been DCA-ing IWDA and STI using IB (Singapore account) 3k into each monthly.


Do you think it's worth for me to DCA VAS as well using CMC? Or should I just stick to IWDA + STI to keep it simple? I currently have about 400k in Australia banks just earning ~2.2-2.5% of interest and 150k in SG banks earning nothing


Thanks heaps!

Just invest in IWDA and STI, it will bear fruit, no need to try other thing

 

[RoLanTo]

Hi experts. Just starting this journey beginning this month. Intend to do 50% a35 and 50% iwda. Bond component will just use cpf to make it easy.

My monthly fund fluctuates between 2k to 4k. Currently using SCB. Any better options to reduce cost? Thanks

Sent from Xiaomi MI MIX 2S using GAGT

 

[limster]

Hi experts. Just starting this journey beginning this month. Intend to do 50% a35 and 50% iwda. Bond component will just use cpf to make it easy.

My monthly fund fluctuates between 2k to 4k. Currently using SCB. Any better options to reduce cost? Thanks

Sent from Xiaomi MI MIX 2S using GAGT

you can either read this thread for the info, or buy the book for $8 and get the executive summary

 

[MultiSystemAtrophy]

Erm guys. Trying to use Investment Moats Stock tracking spreadsheet (since my own simple version of tracking my transactions is getting more messy and abysmal).

Does ES3 have a google stock quote? Cos i can't find it.
Yahoo finance and Bloomberg there are tickers, but just can't find the google one.

EDIT: Hah nevermind, there's yahoo option inside the spreadsheet. Didn't see ...

 

[BBCWatcher]

Initially I wanted to invest in VAS because I was looking for an ETF and wanted to dip my hands in some of the Vanguard funds.

There's no obvious, compelling reason yet in evidence why you would overweight Australian listed/traded stocks. You're not living and working in Australia (i.e. no superannuation-related requirements and benefits), and you're not planning to retire there.

If you think you're going to visit Australia frequently in and through retirement -- to visit family, for example -- then you might give a little extra attention to Australian dollar denominated (or correlated) vehicles. But there's no particular rush to do that unless there's "lots" of Australia in your near future. (Is there?)